After touring the globe in recent weeks, the PGA Tour heads back to America this week for the Houston Open, the penultimate event of the pre-Christmas leg of the 2021-22 campaign. This used to have the slot before The Masters but is re-establishing itself in this November position.
Carlos Ortiz certainly enjoyed its November slot last year as he won the title. The Mexican was due to defend the crown this week but he pulled out injured in the lead up to it. That means we will get a different winner this year.
Recent Winners
2020 – Carlos Ortiz
2019 – Lanto Griffin
2018 – Ian Poulter
2017 – Russell Henley
2016 – Jim Herman
2015 – J.B Holmes
2014 – Matt Jones
2013 – DA Points
2012 – Hunter Mahan
2011 – Phil Mickelson
The Course
The tournament returns to the Memorial Park Golf Course this week for its second staging here. The course is only five miles away from downtown Houston and is very different to the ones which have been in play in this tournament when it was the traditional Masters warm up in the past. This track is a par 70 with five par threes and three par fives and can stretch out to as long as 7,412 yards. That is down by 20 yards from last year. It sounds a big course but it played firm and fast last year.
We are probably still finding out about this course given that we’ve only seen it in competitive action once but the immediately obvious thing last year was the huge run offs around most of the greens. Given that nobody will hit all of the greens, even though they are pretty big, scrambling is going to be a major play this week. There were no strong stats swaying between distance and accuracy last year but those who play the irons into and around the greens are likely to prosper. We’re in Texas so the breeze will be a factor too.
The Field
The travelling that the tour has done in the last month has had an impact on the field this week. It isn’t the best for what is a decent tournament on a testing course but there is a real competitiveness to it. Sam Burns is the star attraction this week although one of Texas’ finest is in the field too in Scottie Scheffler. His two big hitting Ryder Cup teammates Brooks Koepka and Tony Finau will also join him in teeing it up this week.
Max Homa is here looking for his second win of the season, as is Sungjae Im, while the likes of Cameron Smith, Marc Leishman, Patrick Reed and Adam Scott are some of the other players who are looking to add to their PGA Tour tallies. Tyrrell Hatton leads what isn’t the biggest European charge this week with the best from Europe preparing for the European Tour finale next week. His Ryder Cup teammate Shane Lowry also tees it up. Others to keep an eye on include the in form Matthew Wolff and Talor Gooch.
Market Leaders
Sam Burns will tee off as a 14/1 favourite to win his second tournament of the campaign, adding to his Sanderson Farms Championship title should he be successful. He was fifth in the CJ Cup last time out and has been in great form for most of 2021. Burns was seventh here last year when a poor final round cost him a shot at the title but having won a couple of times since then you sense if he’s in the same position he won’t pass up the opportunity. There is nothing to not like about Burns apart from the price but even that isn’t the worst.
Scottie Scheffler is next in the betting at 18/1. The immediate issue I would have with backing him at a short price is he still hasn’t won on the PGA Tour. He will definitely win something soon and given that he is a local player he might even win this week but he could very quickly become expensive to follow at these prices should he not go in soon. He hasn’t exactly offered up signs that he is banging the door down to win either. If he wins at this price then so be it but he isn’t for me.
Sungjae Im was a recent winner of the Shiners Open and then followed that up with another strong showing in the CJ Cup so the Korean certainly looks in decent form. He is 25/1 to win this week as is Cameron Smith. You have to take Smith seriously here because his short game is up there with anything in the game right now. That is the weak part of Im’s game and in a competitive event that could be the thing which catches him out.
Brooks Koepka and Tony Finau come next in the betting at 28/1. Koepka had a hand in the redesign of this course so you would think he would be astute in how to play it. That makes me a little more interested in him than I usually would be in a regular PGA Tour event but his GIR and scrambling stats aren’t inspiring. Finau won The Northern Trust but he hasn’t done a whole lot since then. He certainly has the skills to win here but I wonder if he is waiting for the bigger events to come along before peaking again.
Main Bets
Cameron Smith ticks every box to me this week. If we go with courses which correlate with this one – Riviera and Augusta – Smith has three top 10s at Augusta and two top 10s in his last four starts at Riviera. That isn’t a surprise because his short game is one of the best in the world and he is very at home on firm and fast tracks given that he comes from Australia. He is also fine in the breeze coming from that part of the world too. I don’t think there is as much of a premium on finding fairways here but going into the greens and shots around them will be key. That is generally where Smith comes to the fore and he’s a decent putter too. I think on this track he is a leading chance here.
Tyrrell Hatton doesn’t have the best record at Riviera or Augusta but he is a class act whose skills should really suit the test this week. He is a twice winner of the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship so we know he has an exceptional short game and can play in the wind. We also know that he is a wonderful iron player and is regularly one of the best iron players on the European Tour. He has won an event on the PGA Tour and was seventh here last year. Hatton was the runner up in the Palmetto Championship earlier in the year and at the Dunhill Links last month so he’s creeping into form and on a track which should suit I think he can go very well here.
Outsiders
I’ll also take a couple of outsiders as well this week with the first of those being the German player Stephan Jaeger. The German has been mixed with his form since he graduated from the Korn Ferry Tour. He has either missed the cut, which he has done in three of the events, or he has finished in the top 26. In the three missed cuts he still produced rounds of 70, 69 and 67 in early exits so it isn’t like he played badly in those tournaments. The constant in them has been his short game and putting. He has been high up in most of those events in those categories which offers me hope that he can go well here. His issue has been the long game but there isn’t as much of a premium on that here so at 150/1 I’ll pay to see if he can replicate his Korn Ferry Tour form here.
The other man I like is someone we know can win in Texas as he has done it before. That man is Andrew Landry, winner of the Texas Open three years ago. That is very much a positive but so is his recent form where he registered a fourth place finish in the Sanderson Farms last month and a top 10 finish in Mexico last week where he finished in the tie for seventh. The key once again on both occasions was his long game. In the Sanderson Farms he ranked 30 for scrambling and 14 for putting and last week that was elevated to 14 and 6. His accuracy off the tee has been very good as always but sometimes his iron play has let him down. That was the case last week when he ranked 61 for GIR but generally his approach play is good and with these greens being much bigger I expect another good showing from him here.
Tips
Back C.Smith to win Houston Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back T.Hatton to win Houston Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 31.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back S.Jaeger to win Houston Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back A.Landry to win Houston Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
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