The European Tour comes away from the Middle Eastern desert and heads to the African one for the next couple of weeks as the Magical Kenya Open is the first of two successive tournaments taking place in Kenya.
Guido Migliozzi won the inaugural staging of a European Tour event in Kenya two years and the Italian will be looking to back that up by successfully defending his title here after Covid-19 denied him the chance of doing so last year. A pretty competitive field challenges him though so he won’t have it all his own way.
Recent Winners
2019 – Guido Migliozzi
The Course
We are back at the Karen Country Club which has hosted this tournament in the past and was the stage for the only European Tour affiliated event here. This is a treelined track which is quite flat with tight fairways and small greens so we’re looking for a decent ball striker this week. The rough looks worse than it plays in this part of the world so accuracy isn’t huge but hitting the greens is. Given we have small greens a decent scrambler could be worth a go as well.
The course itself measures 6,921 yards and is a par 71 but when you factor in the altitude on top of that it is a really short course by modern standards. This is going to turn into a second shot and short game event. This course is also being used next week so we might get a few different pins to keep everything fresh so iron play is the premium for me here, whether they are the irons into the green or the wedges around them.
The Field
Clearly with this week falling between the flagship event in America and the WGC next week this was never going to be a stacked field but it is a pretty competitive one, which with all that is going on shouldn’t be understated. The defending champion Guido Migliozzi headlines the field and he comes in off the back of a solid effort in Qatar last week. There are only two players ranked in the top 100 in the world on show this week. They are Aaron Rai and George Coetzee.
There are a few other former European Tour winners teeing it up such as Kurt Kitayama, Jamie Donaldson, Romain Langasque and Justin Harding while up and coming South Africans such as Wilco Nienaber and Garrick Higgo are also in the field. Then we have a few veterans sprinkled into the mix in Joost Luiten, Victor Dubuisson, Alex Levy and Richard Bland. All in all although the star names are missing the field could be a lot worse.
Market Leaders
Kurt Kitayama is the favourite to win the tournament this week. He is an 18/1 shot to open up his account for the season and given that he comes in here off the back of a trio of top 20 finishes in better tournaments than this with bigger and deeper fields you would say that he is a worthy favourite. One concern would be that he sees the course for the first time here so while his skillset suits the track it might be next week we see the fruits of his labour.
The defending champion Guido Migliozzi is the second favourite at 20/1. He comes in here off the back of a second placed finish in Qatar last week so he looks to be hitting form at just the right time for his title defence. He ranked fourth in greens in regulation and third in scrambling last week so if those facets of his game remain strong here he is entitled to be a tough nut to crack. Regular readers will know I’m not one for backing defending champions though.
European Tour maidens Kalle Samooja and Matthias Schwab are next in the betting at 25/1. Samooja has a pretty decent profile around here and a pair of solid outings so he could well be value at that price, but we’re getting into that territory where I don’t really like to go when a player is yet to win. The same can be said of the Austrian ace Schwab of whom I think easier tests are likely to yield a first win on tour. It is 28/1 bar those named.
Main Bets
I’ll go with a pair of main bets here and the first of them is Johannes Veerman, a player who shook off a load of rust with his first start of the year in Qatar last week and who showed here last year that he can handle Karen Country Club. He finished in the top 20 here last year despite opening with a 76 so if he can begin on a more even footing this week then there is no reason why he can’t be battling at the business end of the event. Veerman was in the top 20 for strokes gained into and around the green last week and you would think he will come on for the run to use a racing term in the week of the Cheltenham Festival. At 33/1 he looks a solid investment.
The other man I like as a main bet this week is Chris Paisley. He is widely regarded as one of the better scramblers on tour, helped by a putter which is usually pretty hot and so it comes as no surprise that he finished in the top 10 in Qatar last week. Given how long we’ve been without European Tour events prior to last week I certainly think teeing it up there is an advantage here. In a much better field Paisley gained over 10 shots on the field average from tee to green and was fifth in stroked gained on approach and seventh for the week around the greens. If his long game is in that sort of touch here then with his short game he is entitled to be very tough to beat.
Outsiders
I’ll play a couple of outsiders this week as well with the first of those who I’m showing a bit of a leap of faith with in James Morrison. He is very hit or miss, more miss than hit recently, but he does have some form on courses where the approach and scrambling are key requisites. A couple of years ago he was fourth in the KLM Open and then last year he was fifth at Celtic Manor. He hasn’t done a huge amount since then but I suspect someone who maintains the ability on certain tracks such as this one is more likely to go in when the field is weak or the event a lesser one than some others. That makes me think he’s worth chancing at three figures here.
Jacques Kruyswijk has been plying his trade on the South African scene over the last couple of weeks but he has finishes of 11-6 in that time and has finished third and fifth for scrambling while hitting the ball very well as well. In his final event of 2020, the South African Open, which was a European Tour event with a much stronger field than this one, he gained more than 10 shots on the field off the tee and almost six shots from tee to green and sat in the top 10 before a disaster of a final round but with that long game ability and his current short game form he could play much better than his price on a track where he finished seventh on the Challenge Tour in 2017.
Tips
Back J.Veerman to win Magical Kenya Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Betway (1/5 1-7)
Back C.Paisley to win Magical Kenya Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 31.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back J.Morrison to win Magical Kenya Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
PLACED – Back J.Kruyswijk to win Magical Kenya Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Coral (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
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