The European Tour begins its ‘Spanish Swing’ this week as the first of three tournaments in Spain takes place. This leg of the tour begins with the Open de Espana in the capital Madrid where Race to Dubai points are up for grabs.
Jon Rahm finally gets to defend the title he won two years ago after the pandemic put paid to this tournament take place last year. He goes in search of a three-peat and will be an emphatic favourite to achieve it despite some notable players in the field.
Recent Winners
2019 – Jon Rahm
2018 – Jon Rahm
2016 – Andrew Johnston
2015 – James Morrison
2014 – Miguel Angel Jimenez
2013 – Raphael Jacquelin
2012 – Francesco Molinari
2011 – Thomas Aiken
2010 – Alvaro Quiros
2009 – Thomas Levet
The Course
The Club de Campo Villa de Madrid is the venue for the tournament this week. This is the second event in succession that we have been at this course. As with 2019, the track is a par 71 which stretches out to 7,112 yards which isn’t particularly long by modern standards, especially when the course is some 2,500m above sea level. That means we are looking for players who have good distance control.
The track is said to have undulating greens where being on the right part of them is pivotal. The fairways are treelined but at this time of the year there is not believed to be much in the way of rough. There didn’t appear to be too much in terms of a test off the tee in the 2019 renewal of this tournament so it might be the second shot and in where the field gets sorted out. Look for strong iron players who are wielding a decent putter.
The Field
The world number one Jon Rahm is a leading light in the field this week. He is by far and away the best player teeing it up and on home soil he isn’t going to lack for motivation. He is joined in the field by his Ryder Cup teammate Bernd Wiesberger, who goes in search of another European Tour win after a competitive if unrewarding performance at the Ryder Cup. They set the standard but there are five other players in the top 100 in the world teeing it up.
Victor Perez is one of those and with him ranked 52 in the world this is a big week for him. Those in the top 50 at the end of the year get into all the big events next year so the Frenchman needs to make a move this week. Min Woo Lee, Guido Migliozzi, Richard Bland and Santiago Tarrio are the other players in the top 100 in the field. Justin Harding, Calum Hill and Marcus Armitage are some of those who are looking to double up on their European Tour wins this year.
Market Leaders
Jon Rahm is an 11/5 favourite to win the title for the third time, the second of which would be on this course after he won here in 2019. When someone is this price my tendency is to look for reasons why he can’t win and other than fatigue after some big events in the last month or so. He is also in the field for Valderrama next week so this might be a tune up for that but even so he could be at 75% and potentially win this given he won by five here in 2019. I’m not an 11/5 player but if I was Rahm is the sort of 11/5 shot I’d be on.
Bernd Wiesberger isn’t the second highest ranked player in the field but he is the second favourite. It is a sign of how strongly fancied Rahm is on home soil that you can get 22/1 on the Austrian on the best prices. We often see players who come out of a Ryder Cup motivated by the experience and go well for the weeks following it. Tyrrell Hatton, Shane Lowry and Tommy Fleetwood all finished in the top 10 last week and I wouldn’t be surprised if Wiesberger did likewise. He is probably only a fair priced alternative to Rahm though.
The Italian number one Guido Migliozzi is third in the betting at 33/1. He had a good run of form in late spring when he came second at the British Masters and Made in Himmerland before a fourth placed finish at the US Open but he’s only had one top 10 finish since then which would be a concern. He made the top 20 last week which is encouraging but I’d still like to see another strong showing from him before he appears on my shortlist in the sort of position I’d need him to be before I get involved.
Masahiro Kawamura, Calum Hill and Adri Arnaus are next in the betting at 40/1 on the best prices. Arnaus finished fourth here in 2019 so he will take some confidence from that, although he’ll need to be because his form hasn’t been the greatest in recent time. Hill won the Cazoo Classic a few months ago and has been in decent form since then. He was in the top 20 in 2019 whereas Kawamura finished seventh here in that tournament. They all have every chance this week.
Main Bet
There isn’t a whole lot I like towards the head of the market mostly because Rahm looks such a good thing that I would rather take him on with what I perceive to be extreme value and therefore I’ll only take the one main bet this week. That comes in the form Calum Hill who has already won the Cazoo Classic this season. Hill showed decent form in this tournament back in 2019 when he was in the top 20 and he is clearly a much better player now, right through the bag. Either side of winning the Cazoo Classic and the week he won it he ranked in the top two for the all-around ranking which shows that every part of his game is in good order. He led the field in putting at the European Masters in terms of strokes gained and his long game has been fantastic all year. If the head of the market does beat Rahm I think it could be Hill who does it.
Outsiders
I’ll throw four darts out there at a decent price as well in the hope that if we don’t get Rahm beat we do at least run off with some place money. The first of those is JB Hansen, a player who was fourth here a couple of years ago and who already has a top 10 in the first set of tournaments in Spain earlier in the year so there must be something about the Spanish climate that he enjoys. His form has been average with a couple of eye catching outings in recent times rather than anything spectacular but in the main his putter has been working well so the lighter test in the long game department could easily see the Dane hit the frame once again.
Speaking of hitting the frame, that is exactly what Jamie Donaldson did at the BMW PGA Championship recently and he looks a big price to contend again in an event where hitting good quality iron shots and holing some putts is likely to be the key to success. Donaldson has been showing decent form for a while as it goes. He was third at the Cazoo Classic and second at Wentworth and although he withdrew at the halfway mark last week I think a lot of that was because he was well out of contention at the time. There is no doubt we are seeing the best version of Donaldson coming back and with that in mind I’ll play him at a decent price here.
Francesco Laporta was another who hit the skids in Scoland last week but prior to that he went 4-6 at the Italian Open and the BMW PGA Championship and he also registered a top five in the Irish Open earlier in the year as well. His three missed cuts since that Irish event came in two links tournaments and in Switzerland where you either like the altitude or you don’t. Perhaps the Italian doesn’t. To perform well in his home event will have given Laporta a lot of confidence and a bad week last week isn’t going to sway me from liking a man whose entire game was in great working order at Wentworth last month.
Alejandro Canizares is renowned as one of the best putters on the European Tour circuit when he is on it and on home soil this week he will really fancy his chances of going strongly. Canizares has finished third in Northern Ireland and the Dutch Open in the last couple of months and as is his profile, his putter has been red hot. He led the field in putting average both in that Dutch Open and in the Cazoo Classic. Also in the Dutch Open he was second in the field in strokes gained on approach, picking up almost 10 shots on the field in that department. If the irons remain hot here he should outrun his price on a course where he was in the top 20 two years ago when he nothing like the form he has been in recently.
Tips
Back C.Hill to win Open de Espana (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 36.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back J.B.Hansen to win Open de Espana (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-7)
Back F.Laporta to win Open de Espana (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
Back J.Donaldson to win Open de Espana (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 71.00 with BetVictor (1/5 1-6)
Back A.Canizares to win Open de Espana (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 111.00 with BetVictor (1/5 1-6)
Back them here:
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