3.05 Longchamp: Prix De L’Arc de Triomphe
Favourites
With Love now a non-runner, there’s an excellent looking field of 14 going to post for this year’s renewal of the Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe. Horses from the UK & Ireland dominate the betting with Tarnawa & Snowfall from Ireland and Hurricane Lane & Adayar from the UK. Tarnawa & Adayar are joint favourites at the time of writing with the former now a 5 year old having won 5 on the spin since the start of 2020. She was narrowly beaten by St Marks Basilica on her last start in the Irish Champion Stakes & whilst she’ll go on the ground, I’m not sure she’ll relish it like others. Adayar has been impressive in winning the Derby & then following up in the King George. Hard to discount but in this quality of field, he’s not exactly value.
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Contenders
Hurricane Lane comes here having won 3 Group 1’s since finishing 3rd in the Derby but won the St Leger last time & may just not have the turn of foot needed to land the spoils whilst Snowfall was a most impressive winner of the Oaks but was turned over at odds of 1/5 in the Vermeille on her last run. The big Japanese hope is Chrono Genesis & if he likes the ground, which is an unknown, he has a great shout of breaking the Japanese duck in the race whilst Alenquer did beat Adayar earlier this year, has won on heavy & hails from the Haggas yard who are in scintillating form. There are a few live outsiders with Sealiway having claims whilst it wouldn’t surprise me to see the German raider, Torquator Tasso, sneak a place.
Betting
However, I’m happy to be siding with Raabihah, the only one of this field to run in the Arc last year. The one big negative, on paper, is the widest draw in 15 but on this sort of ground, I’m not sure it’s that much of an issue. There’s not exactly much pace on here so she should be able to tuck in easily enough in a reasonably prominent position. She’s suited by soft ground & comes here fresh unlike many of today’s rivals. After finishing 2nd on 3 consecutive occasions this year, she was stepped back up in trip to a mile & a half was ran out a convincing winner of a Group 2 at Deauville. Her run in the Arc last year suggests she could easily outrun her odds here; she was held up off a very slow pace & failed to settle. Still travelling well in the straight, her jockey struggled to get a run & by the time she was switched to the outside, the winner had flown. She rattled home on the outside, handling the heavy ground really well, & ended up finishing 5th. I cannot imagine her jockey will keep her so far back this time & if she does race close to the pace, I fancy her to go well. She’s the number 1 French hope in the race & it’s a number of years since they’ve not had a horse finish in the first 4, the home contingent accounting for the last 2 winners & 5 of the last 9. At 22/1, she’s a cracking each way bet.
Tips
Back Raabihah (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 23.00 Skybet (⅕ odds 1-5)
Back Raabihah in the ‘without Tarnawa & Adayar’ market for a 0.5/10 stake at 17.00 Bet365
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