After the highs of the Ryder Cup last week, the PGA Tour returns to normal fayre this week when it heads to Mississippi for the Sanderson Farms Championship, the second leg of the brand new FedExCup season.
Sergio Garcia won this tournament last year and he’ll be defending the tournament despite being involved in the Ryder Cup last week. You’d have to say that with none of the victorious American team here that he defends against a weaker field.
Recent Winners
2020 – Sergio Garcia
2019 – Sebastian Munoz
2018 – Cameron Champ
2017 – Ryan Armour
2016 – Cody Gribble
2015 – Peter Malnati
2014 – Nick Taylor
2013 – Woody Austin
2012 – Scott Stallings
2011 – Chris Kirk
The Course
The Country Club of Jackson stages this tournament again. It has the same dimensions as last year, so it is a par 72 which measures 7,461 yards. When you look at the statistics of the recent winners there is a bit of a picture forming. They are all pretty solid drivers of the golf ball who can all hole putts or putted very well the week they won. Given scoring is likely to be very low this week we should have putting in mind when forming our bets.
That is very much one of my focuses this week. Length isn’t the overriding thing around here although there is no denying that it helps, but I do like authoritative ball strikers as those with club head speed tend to take these classic type setups to the cleaners these days. Greens in regulation is another statistic to look at as this tournament is all about making birdies so the more chances you get the better the likelihood is that you’ll make some.
The Field
You’d have to argue this is a pretty weak PGA Tour field by recent standards. Even the season opener had the world number one Jon Rahm in it but this tournament has nobody involved in a playing capacity at the Ryder Cup last week apart from the defending champion Sergio Garcia. One or two other emerging names are also teeing it up with Will Zalatoris, Sam Burns and Sungjae Im among them while you would imagine that Corey Conners is a PGA Tour winner in waiting.
There are also some more established names who are in the field this week looking to take advantage of the soft field to earn themselves all the benefits that comes with winning at this level. They include Charley Hoffman, Keegan Bradley and Cameron Tringale while the likes of Mito Pereira, Cam Davis and Taylor Pendrith have big reputations. Sebastian Munoz and Ryan Armour are among the former winners in the field.
Market Leaders
Sam Burns is the 18/1 favourite to win the tournament this week. He had a very good season last term, winning the Valspar Championship before finishing as a runner up at the Byron Nelson Championship and the Wyndham Championship. That got him into the FedExCup playoffs where he ended up making the Tour Championship, finishing T17. He has a lot of credentials that should go well in the softer conditions here and the only thing that puts me off is he won’t have headed the betting too often. That aside he looks to have a good chance.
Will Zalatoris flew onto the scene when he chased Hideki Matsuyama home in The Masters but despite finishing second there and in the top 10 in the USPGA Championship, his form wasn’t good enough to earn him a place in the playoffs and while his talent looks to be there and he might be a star waiting to truly breakthrough, I think at 20/1 I’m going to have to let him win before I can put my money on him. I wouldn’t be surprised if that win comes here but he’s too short for me.
Sergio Garcia heads up a trio of players on 22/1 as he bids to make a successful defence of the title. The other two players are Sungjae Im and Corey Conners, both of whom would look to have chances, although if the course is soft after storms leading up to the event then the Canadian might not have the length. I’m not interested in Garcia. I don’t do defending champions anyway but anyone who has read my Dunhill Links preview will know I don’t want anyone involved in the emotional rollercoaster of the Ryder Cup. Im would be my favoured player of the trio but he is probably only a fair price.
Main Bets
I’ll take a couple of maidens to land their first PGA Tour title this week. This is a tournament that often finds first time winners and Mito Pereira is surely going to break his duck at this level in the not too distant future. His form in the last 10 starts reads 1-1-MC-34-5-6-3-39-MC-3. The two wins were on the Korn Ferry Tour but it isn’t as though he hasn’t hit the ground running on the PGA Tour. He has three top six finishes in his seven PGA Tour events and lost out in the playoff for bronze at the Olympics. Pereira hits the ball a fair way but he does it accurately and is equally as accurate into the greens. If he can take to these greens well then this Chilean winner in waiting could break his PGA Tour duck this week.
Another player who hits it a long way and has a decent reputation is Taylor Pendrith. Pendrith’s length could be key on a course which is likely to be soft with some boomers in the area in the lead up to the tournament. Although his form isn’t fantastic in terms of results, he led the field in strokes gained off the tee at the Fortinet a couple of weeks ago and we should remember that Jon Rahm was in that tournament. He wasn’t terrible on the greens either. He wasn’t as good into the greens but if he can tidy that up then he should be capable of going very low here.
Outsiders
I always think Keith Mitchell is a little underrated. You wouldn’t call him a bomber but he doesn’t necessarily lack for length but he is very good into the greens and in the main he tends to be good on them too. He showed all of that when he was third in the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow when he led after 54 holes. More recently he was fifth in the 3M Open and eighth at The Northern Trust on courses trickier than this one. He is a former winner of The Honda Classic and you don’t win there if you can’t play. He looks to be in decent touch at present and can not just make his first cut here but go very well afterwards.
Lucas Herbert is another who is a bit of a monster off the tee but we’ve seen a few times on the European Tour that he can hole some putts as well. We saw that most recently in the Irish Open which he won and then he was fourth in the Scottish Open. He now has his playing rights on the PGA Tour and a soft track like this without too much punishment for missing the fairways should be right up the street of the Australian. Herbert smacks it a long way but has good touch on the greens so if he can have a slightly better than average day with the irons he should go very well here.
Tips
Back M.Pereira to win Sanderson Farms Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
Back T.Pendrith to win Sanderson Farms Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Coral (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
Back K.Mitchell to win Sanderson Farms Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 71.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-7)
Back L.Herbert to win Sanderson Farms Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-7)
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