The second tournament on the PGA Tour in 2021 takes place this week when the show stays in Hawaii for the Sony Open, the first full field event of the new year. With some big tournaments looming large on the horizon this is a chance for many to find form ahead of them.
Cameron Smith did exactly that last year when he came out on top to land the title and he is here looking to keep hold of the crown. This event always seems to attract a decent field though and this year is no different.
Recent Winners
2020 – Cameron Smith
2019 – Matt Kuchar
2018 – Patton Kizzire
2017 – Justin Thomas
2016 – Fabian Gomez
2015 – Jimmy Walker
2014 – Jimmy Walker
2013 – Russell Henley
2012 – Johnson Wagner
2011 – Mark Wilson
The Course
It is the Waialae Country Club that hosts the tournament once again this week. As with most island tracks the wind is the best defence for this place but other than a bit of a strong breeze on the opening day there is going to be no issues with aerial conditions so we should be expecting something of a low scoring event which we are used to after the heavy winds of last year. The course is a par 70 but it only measures 7,044 yards so it isn’t overly long.
If you consider that only Russell Henley has won this tournament on debut in recent times then course management is very much a feature of this place. The other thing to consider when we look at the list of recent winners is they are all tremendous putters and with there being no real rough to speak of there isn’t as much scrutiny in the long game, although obviously the closer you hit it to the flags the better your scoring chances. Keep good putters in mind this week.
The Field
Usually a large number of the players who tee it up in the Tournament of Champions stay on and play this tournament too but with all the restrictions and the world the way it is this year not so many have taken up that opportunity. Webb Simpson is the man who headlines the field but interestingly the winner last week, Harris English, is going in search of the Aloha double. The defending champion Cameron Smith is also in the field too.
There are plenty of other leading names in the field this week with the USPGA champion Collin Morikawa one of those as well as the likes of Daniel Berger, Sungjae Im and Hideki Matsuyama. Former winners of this tournament such as Matt Kuchar, Patton Kizzire and Jimmy Walker are also in the field. Adam Scott, Kevin Kisner, Zach Johnson and Sergio Garcia are some of those who will be eyeing up a first title of 2021 this week.
Market Leaders
Webb Simpson is a 12/1 favourite to win the tournament this week. It is hard to argue against that given that he has finished in the top four in the last two renewals of this tournament. As well as good course form Simpson also has the advantage that he got four competitive rounds under his belt last week so there is a lot to like about him. I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes on and wins this week but he just feels a little on the skinny side even allowing for his form here. The field feels more competitive than a 12/1 favourite given that none of the elite big five or six are here.
Harris English and Collin Morikawa are the 14/1 second favourites to win this week. The credentials of English were there for all to see last week but that was his first solo win for a while and it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise in the world if he is a little flat at times here as a result. He is playing well though so he shouldn’t be completely dismissed but I’m rarely one for backing the winner of the previous week. Collin Morikawa went well last week but faded in the final round. His putting seemed to get worse as the week went on which is a concern here.
You get the feeling Daniel Berger and Sungjae Im are set up for big years in 2021 and they are both 16/1 to win this week. Im has kicked on after going so close at The Masters at the back end of last season. He was T5 last week where his long game was in excellent order. Berger was right there for much of last week but didn’t convince with the putter which is the one club which has to be cooperating this week. Of the two I’d favour Im here but he’s pretty skinny too.
Hideki Matsuyama completes the field in terms of those who are 20/1 or less this week. He is 20/1 to win the tournament and while you always have to respect his long game, his good weeks with the putter seem to be getting rarer and rarer which is a concern here. I’m not sure he is quite the leading contender he keeps on being priced up as and while he is still more than competitive when he has a good week his overall form isn’t reflected in his price.
Main Bets
There aren’t many players in better form than Joaquin Niemann at the minute and I get the impression that the talented Chilean is ready to win again. He was a playoff away from winning last week after he powered home and the way he got stronger as the week went on suggested he just needed a few holes to shake off the rust. Now that he has done that I’m expecting big things from him here. Niemann made 31 birdies last week so if we allow him the mistakes he made because he was rusty after Christmas we should get some excellent scoring from him here. Niemann only made one bogey in his last 39 holes last week so he carries good positivity with him into this week. At 25/1 the aggressive Chilean is my first main bet here.
The second bet I like is Brendon Todd who should fit this course a lot better than his past efforts have suggested. To be fair a lot of the time he has arrived here his game has been in a bad state but that certainly isn’t the case now. He is a much more confident and reliable player these days after that period where he won three times in quick succession, including in Mexico on a track which has similarities with this one interestingly enough. Todd blew away the cobwebs last week on a course where his lack of length was always going to make life difficult for him. He still pushed the top 10 there and that tune up coupled with his excellent putting which really should stand out on this deck makes him a main bet here.
Outsiders
I’ll throw a few darts at this tournament this week given that it is the only event to bet on. The first of those is a former winner in Patton Kizzire. He is renowned as one of the best putters on the PGA Tour and finished off 2020 pretty well with a couple of top 15 finishes. As a ball striker who can putt well he should always go well here and even after he won the event he registered another top 15 in his title defence which is encouraging. He looks to be hitting the ball well this season and with his putting right up there he feels like a big price.
At a bigger price I’m going to continue to ride the Peter Malnati train because I’m convinced he is going to win a tournament soon. He finished in the top 12 here last year but his form has taken off since then and while he is never going to be the most consistent player in the world given that he doesn’t have the length to contend on some tracks on the PGA Tour, when he gets to courses like this where he can mix it I expect good things. Given his price I’m willing to give him another try given that his putting ability can shine through here.
Michael Thompson brushed off the cobwebs at Kapalua last week and that should have primed him up nicely for a tournament at a course which should suit him even better given his ball striking ability. Thompson is probably more of a streaky putter than I would normally like around here but the price is reflective of that. We saw when he won the 3M Classic last year that he can score well and if his ball striking combines with good putting, which after a warm up tilt last week it very well might, then he can outrun his price here.
Andrew Putnam was statistically the best putter on tour last season in terms of total putting and while things have gone a bit quiet for him recently I’m still prepared to take a chance that it all comes good for him here given that he is a massive price. Putnam was a runner up here two years ago when Kuchar won with a very low score so we know that when it all clicks he can play well here. He wouldn’t be the first player to have good memories of a course and come good on it again and should it happen he won’t be the last either. I’ll pay to see how well he starts 2021 in the hope he’s used the off time to take stock and go again.
Tips
PLACED – Back J.Niemann to win Sony Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back P.Malnati to win Sony Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
Back B.Todd to win Sony Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
Back M.Thompson to win Sony Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
Back P.Kizzire to win Sony Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-8)
Back A.Putnam to win Sony Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 251.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-8)
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