The 2021 FedEx Cup playoffs begin this week and they do so as ever with The Northern Trust, which this year returns to Liberty National just outside New York for the first time in two years. The equation for the field here is simple. Be in the top 70 in the rankings by the end of the week or your season is over.
Dustin Johnson had no such problems in this tournament last year and he will attempt to defend his title but he’ll do so on a different course to the one he won on. Patrick Reed won the tournament the last time it was held here.
Recent Winners
2020 – Dustin Johnson
2019 – Patrick Reed
2018 – Bryson DeChambeau
2017 – Dustin Johnson
2016 – Patrick Reed
2015 – Jason Day
2014 – Hunter Mahan
2013 – Adam Scott
2012 – Nick Watney
2011 – Dustin Johnson
The Course
Liberty National alongside the Hudson River is the venue this week. As the name suggests the sights of the Statue of Liberty and the Manhattan skyline are the backdrop to a wonderful golf course. This is the fifth time in the last 12 years this track has been used. It hosted this tournament in 2009, 2013 and 2019 and was the setting for the Presidents Cup in 2017. There have been slight changes made to the course since the field were last here.
Length is actually a big thing around here. The course is a par 71 which now stretches out to 7,410 yards and with the rough surrounding the fairways on the short side the bigger hitters can let it fly here. The key element is greens in regulation. The rough is fiddly around these greens and we saw in the Presidents Cup here that it is a nightmare course to scramble on. This is an exposed course with it running alongside the river but the winds aren’t expected to be too significant here.
The Field
There are 125 players remaining in the race for the big dollars in Atlanta in a couple of weeks. 124 of those tee it up this week with Louis Oosthuizen the only player who qualified for the competition who isn’t in the field. He is almost guaranteed to make the Tour Championship so his exclusion isn’t season ending. The Open champion Collin Morikawa is the number one ranked player heading into the first event and he is in a very strong field to kick the playoffs into life.
That field includes the last man in which was Chesson Hadley who had a bit of an emotional time of it at the Wyndham Championship. The last winner here is in the field in Patrick Reed while the defending champion Dustin Johnson also tees it up this week. The other three major champions are also here in the field in Hideki Matsuyama, Phil Mickelson and Jon Rahm. Brooks Koepka, Jordan Spieth, Patrick Cantlay and Harris English are among the players high up in the rankings who will be looking to head to East Lake in two weeks in control of their own destiny.
Market Leaders
Jon Rahm tees it up for the first time since The Open here and in his previous American start to that he won the US Open so he is used to teeing it up in the big events. In fact, in his last four completed events he has finished in the top 10 and he would have won the one he withdrew from as that was The Memorial when he was miles clear going into the final round only to test positive for Covid. Rahm was third here two years ago so looks to be a very worthy 10/1 favourite.
Jordan Spieth comes next in the betting at 16/1. He will begin the playoffs ranked at number two in the list and has threatened a win bigger than the title he picked up at the Texas Open for a while now. He has the short game skills to get around this place and arrives here with nine top 20 finishes in his last 10 starts. He was sixth here with a poor third round two years ago and was part of the Presidents Cup team which won here so he doesn’t lack for course experience. He’s a danger.
Collin Morikawa and Dustin Johnson are both likely to be in the mix in Atlanta in a couple of weeks and they are both 18/1 to win this title and significantly bolster their ranking, in the case of the latter at least because the former is already sitting on top of the pile. Morikawa should go very well here with the way he strikes his irons but he might be a little short given that he might want something in the tank for Atlanta. Johnson is the defending champion and regular readers will know I don’t go near them very often.
Rory McIlroy and the Olympic champion Xander Schauffele are next in the market at 22/1. Despite his win at Quail Hollow earlier in the season I’m still not convinced McIlroy is playing his best golf and I think you’ll need that around here and in this company. Schauffele is of much more interest but his tame effort in the WGC St Jude is a concern as we often see players struggle for a few weeks after a big win. He missed the cut here a couple of years ago too which is another concern and reason to leave him alone.
Main Bets
Abraham Ancer was second here two years ago but he has broken new ground since then when he won the WGC St Jude Championship a couple of weeks ago. He held himself together very well to win that play-off and that bodes well when it comes to taking down an event like this. This course is a tee to green track. The greens are very small so the putter, which is the weakness of the Mexican, isn’t likely to hold him back here as much as it would elsewhere. Ancer ticks a lot of boxes this week and if the win at TPC Southwind has boosted his confidence like it should have he shouldn’t be too far away here.
Hideki Matsuyama hasn’t pulled up trees around this track but he has got enough experience on it that I think he can be a factor this week. The obvious issue for Matsuyama is the amount of golf he has played in recent times, and high pressure golf at that, which might have attributed to his missed cut at the Wyndham last week. Prior to that he was third in the Olympics and he only missed out on the WGC St Jude in a play-off. Matsuyama is The Masters champion and is carrying that title well. He’s a tee to green machine when he’s on it and you don’t have to be the best putter to prevail around here. I think he ticks a lot of boxes.
Outsiders
Jason Kokrak has a decent record here with a couple of top 12 finishes in his two starts on this track and there is no doubting that he is a better player now than he was in either of the years that he went so well here in. He has won twice this season so will have that belief that he belongs here and for a tee to green monster like he is he really should be right in the mix. I’m a little surprised that a two-time winner can be going off at the price he is on a track he plays well and which suits him nicely but I’m happy to take him at it.
Sergio Garcia has been going under the radar for a while but this is a course he should go well at. The thing that has held him back for a while has been the putter and that is less of an issue here. Garcia led the field in strokes gained from tee to green at the 3M Open a couple of starts ago and was 10 in that category at the WGC St Jude in his last start despite a very rare negative strokes gained approach tally. That long game prowess goes well around here and although he doesn’t have the best record on this track he does have a 65 and a 66 to his name so if he is on it this week he’s a big price.
Keegan Bradley learned his trade at college not a million miles from here and he is another who excels from tee to green who could be worth a bet this week. Like Garcia, he doesn’t have the record here you would expect but he has shot 63 round here in the past and those sorts of rounds are to be respected. Bradley led the field for strokes gained tee to green in the Rocket Mortgage Classic and was second for that discipline at the Valspar. His long game is in great order which might mean he is overpriced here.
Tips
Back A.Ancer to win The Northern Trust (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back H.Matsuyama to win The Northern Trust (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 36.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
Back J.Kokrak to win The Northern Trust (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back S.Garcia to win The Northern Trust (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back K.Bradley to win The Northern Trust (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
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