Many of the stars of the golfing world descent on the tiny town of Sandwich in Kent this week for the final major championship of the year as The Open gets played for the first time in two years after the tournament was postponed because of the pandemic last year.
Shane Lowry was the man who triumphed at Royal Portrush two years ago and he will attempt to defend the Claret Jug this week. He defends on a much tougher course against a field chomping at the bit for a major title.
Recent Winners
2019 – Shane Lowry
2018 – Francesco Molinari
2017 – Jordan Spieth
2016 – Henrik Stenson
2015 – Zach Johnson
2014 – Rory McIlroy
2013 – Phil Mickelson
2012 – Ernie Els
2011 – Darren Clarke
2010 – Louis Oosthuizen
The Course
We are back at Royal St Georges in Kent for the first time in 10 years this week. Darren Clarke was the champion that year and in an unusual twist of fate the course has actually shortened since the last time the tournament was here. It remains a par 70 but is now as short as 7,189 yards but if you think the course can be overpowered think again. There are a number of holes where the fairway runs out at a certain yardage and you can’t play this course from the rough.
The traits of this course is that there are very few flat areas on it so there are going to be lots of hanging lies and ball below the feet. The rough is penal with it not having been tended to at all so it is knee high in places. The greens are large but they are undulating and missing them will require a wizard like short game. In short, you need an accurate driver of the ball who is a good long distance putter. We are right on the sea here so it goes without saying that we need players who can play in the wind.
The Field
This isn’t the strongest field that has been assembled at The Open. The various travel restrictions are still having an impact on that but there is still a very good cast list to this particular story. The defending champion Shane Lowry will head up the field but then we have the last two major winners in the field too in Phil Mickelson and Jon Rahm. There are many former Open champions here including the winner in 2011 in Darren Clarke.
Recent Open champions are here too in the shape of Francesco Molinari, Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy and Louis Oosthuizen. Brooks Koepka, Xander Schauffele, Bryson DeChambeau, Dustin Johnson and Justin Thomas are some of the leading lights who are looking for a first Open title. An Englishman hasn’t won this crown since 1992 but Tyrrell Hatton, Matt Fitzpatrick, Paul Casey and Lee Westwood lead the charge of those looking to end that statistic. Victor Hovland, Patrick Cantlay, Collin Morikawa and Patrick Reed are others with their eye on the title.
Market Leaders
The US Open champion Jon Rahm is the overwhelming 17/2 favourite to take a second major title in a row after his win at Torrey Pines last month. He looked to have the Scottish Open in the palm of his half at the halfway mark last week though and in the end never really threatened the win, with his putting very ordinary there and some of his approach shots not of the quality we would expect over the weekend. The putting is a bit of a concern here because these greens are huge with subtle slopes on them. There is a case for this being the hardest test on The Open rota so single figures on anyone doesn’t interest me let alone a man with a new status in the game to adjust to.
Brooks Koepka is a 16/1 second favourite to land the title this week. He targets the majors more than he does a regular tour event but that is about all he has got going for him here. This is the major he has the weakest record in and while his record at holding his nerve in these big tournaments is strong, too many of his strengths are negated for my liking. If he was an elite putter then fair enough but he isn’t so he isn’t for me either.
Xander Schauffele and Jordan Spieth are both 18/1 chances to win the tournament and there is actually a fair bit to like about both men. Schauffele went very well at Carnoustie three years ago. That is often referred to as the toughest Open test while Spieth won this tournament they year before at Royal Birkdale. Of the two you wonder if Spieth will keep the ball in play enough off the tee to prosper. If he doesn’t he’s a huge runner. Schauffele has just stopped winning enough for my liking.
Justin Thomas is a 20/1 shot to land the title this week and although he put up a much better effort at the Scottish Open last week than he has done in recent tournaments, I’m still far from convinced that he is anywhere near the top of his game. I can’t guarantee who wins this week but I can guarantee it won’t be someone who doesn’t have their very best game on the links with them. Thomas is good but he has never registered a top 10 in this event so he isn’t for me. It is 22/1 bar.
Main Bet
I’m only taking one main bet this week and that comes in the form of the English ace Matt Fitzpatrick who apart from missing the Euro 2020 final which he had tickets for, could not have built up for this week any better after finishing in a tie for second in the Scottish Open last week, losing in the play-off but he didn’t do much wrong in that. I think this course is right up Fitzpatrick’s street and I’m not surprised to have read he came to play the course a while back and shot 67 on it.
The slight concern is that he doesn’t seem to be able to let his best golf flow in the majors but he is very good in the wind, highly accurate off the tee and with the course being firm and fast the longer the week goes on he won’t have to pound any long club. He is excellent with the irons and as we saw last week he is a wonderful putter. If it wasn’t for the reputation this place has for lucky and unlucky bounces I’d be even more confident than I am about Fitzy. He’s my only main bet.
Outsiders
I’ll top that up with five outsiders beginning with a Rickie Fowler whose form isn’t the best but he was in the top 10 at the USPGA Championship at Kiawah Island and just outside the top 10 the following week at Muirfield Village so the various departments of his game have clearly been working. I think a links test could be right up his street. He ticks all the boxes. He drives well, scrambles well, is a good putter and is creative which is everything you need around here. He is good in the wind as well and has three previous top 10s in this tournament. I think he could be a major player this week.
I was on Ian Poulter last week and given that he returned me a full place and for a couple of hours on Sunday afternoon had me dreaming of the full win, I have to have him on my staking plan this week as well. I say that because he is another who ticks every box and now that his putter is coming into form he could take some stopping. He is a solid driver of the ball, he’s smart, good in the wind and is putting nicely. I keep mentioning how he is eager to be on the Ryder Cup team. A win here will get him on that and he certainly isn’t without a chance here.
Alex Noren is another who ticks a lot of boxes and he comes in here in very good form having almost landed his maiden PGA Tour title at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. That PGA Tour win will come but he is always more at home in Europe, particularly in England where he has won the British Masters and the BMW PGA Championship, neither of which were a million miles from here. He is excellent in the wind, great into, around and on the greens and he’s in form. He also has a good record in this tournament with a couple of top 10s and finishing one outside the top 10 two years ago. He looks a big price to me.
Regular readers of my golf bets will know that I’ve been keen on Stewart Cink for much of the season and I’m certainly not leaving him out of my staking plan this week. Cink won this tournament in 2009 and he has plenty of other good efforts including three top 25s on his last three starts when his game wasn’t at the level it has been this year. Cink has won twice on the PGA Tour this season and just knows how to play links golf. He has made the cut in all three majors this season but none of them will suit him like this place will. If he can get his putter hot he could have a very good week here.
Finally I’ll take a punt with Jason Scrivener who is a huge price. He has three top 10 finishes in his last five starts and began his season with a second placed finish in Abu Dhabi in a field which was stacked in quality. He missed the third round cut in Scotland last week but had made the initial cut nicely and I think he could go very well here. He is an accurate driver. Two weeks ago in the Irish Open he gained almost 12 strokes on the field from tee to green and nearly seven on approach alone. His putter let him down that week but the week prior to that in the Scandinavian Mixed, not exactly a week to ignore given how exposed that course was, he gained 6.592 strokes on the greens. If he can put it all together he could easily outrun a big price.
Tips
Back M.Fitzpatrick to win The Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Bet365 (1/5 1-8)
Back I.Poulter to win The Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 76.00 with Bet365 (1/5 1-8)
Back S.Cink to win The Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 141.00 with Bet365 (1/5 1-8)
Back R.Fowler to win The Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-10)
Back A.Noren to win The Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 91.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-9)
Back him here:
Back J.Scrivener to win The Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 301.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-10)
Back him here:
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