2.50 Chepstow: Welsh Grand National Handicap Chase
Preview
The customary big field has assembled for the Welsh Grand National run at Chepstow over a trip of 3 miles 6 furlongs. Whilst it isn’t quite the 4 miles plus of the English & Scottish versions, it’s certainly one of the toughest stamina tests there is, given the stiffness of the track & the likely conditions of soft or heavy. In fact, this race has had to be rescheduled due to weather 5 times in the last 11 years & 7 of the last 10 runnings have been run on ground described as heavy. This year, however, we’re expecting it to be soft.
Favourites
4 of the last 5 winners of this race attempt to land a double, last done by Mountainous who won in 2013 & again 2 years later. The current favourite is last year’s winner Secret Reprieve, again ridden by Adam Wedge, who won this in the style of a 5/2 shot he was then. However, none of the last 20 winners have come here without a prep so an absence of a year (ie, since his win in this very race) is a massive negative for me & it will be some training performance by Evan Williams to land back to back runnings of Wales’ biggest race. The Big Dog comes over from Ireland & their raiders are also feared on these shores but this one has a really stiff looking mark compared to his Irish mark. He’ll love the trip & going so shouldn’t be dismissed but odds of 6/1 do not tempt. Venetia Williams’ horses have to be feared in this type of event and 6 year old Hold That Taught is well fancied after winning on his first start out of novice company. Inexperience, slightly questionable jumping and a 12lb higher mark make him a no bet for me. Even more inexperienced is Sam Thomas’ Iwilldoit. He won the trail here in fine style so could go well again but is 6lb out of the handicap & that really puts me off in a race as competitive as this.
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Betting
In a 20 runner field where we are getting paid at least 6 places, I’m taking 2 against the field & 2 that have history against each other. Highland Hunter got the better of Deise Aba in the London National at Sandown last time out, winning on the nod. The latter is 4lbs better off for a nose but it’s arguable that the former may have more improvement & should also come on for his seasonal reappearance (it was Deise Aba’s second run of the season).
Highland Hunter will appreciate any further easing of the ground as his record on heavy reads 1-1-1-2-1 & he’s a thorough stayer having won that Sandown race over 3 miles 5 furlongs & previously having stayed on well for a 5 lengths 5th in the Midlands National. With conditions in his favour & only a 4lb penalty for a last time out win, he looks one of the best handicapped horses in the race & cannot be left out of the reckoning.
Talking of being well handicapped, Deise Aba was beaten a nose last time out but races off the same mark here. He’s another with good soft / heavy ground form but the key factor could be the jockey. In just 3 runs under Tom O’Brien, he finished 1-1-2 with the defeat being last time out on the nod. A winner at Chepstow, the course should hold no fears and similar can be said about the trip given that last run was his first start beyond 3 miles 2 furlongs & he was staying on all the way to the line up the stiff Sandown straight.
Tips
Back Highland Hunter (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 11.00 William Hill BOG (⅕ odds 1-7)
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Back Deise Aba (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 12.00 Betfair BOG (⅕ odds 1-6)
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