After many of the leading golfers in the world represented their country in the Olympic Games, they now head to Memphis for the final WGC event of the PGA Tour season, the WGC St Jude Invitational, a tournament which could have a huge impact on the play-off picture just two weeks out from the first play-off event.
Justin Thomas won a wonderful staging of the tournament last year which was held behind closed doors. He’ll attempt to defend the title in front of a crowd here but he is up against a very strong field looking to dethrone him.
Recent Winners
2020 – Justin Thomas
2019 – Brooks Koepka
2018 – Dustin Johnson
2017 – Daniel Berger
2016 – Daniel Berger
2015 – Fabian Gomez
2014 – Ben Crane
2013 – Harris English
2012 – Dustin Johnson
2011 – Harrison Frazar
The Course
TPC Southwind is once again the venue for the tournament this week. It has been shortened by 44 yards since last year so the par 70 now measures 7,233 yards. Golfers are used to courses getting longer these days but a growing trend appears to be the moving of bunkers to correspond with the likely landing spots to make them true hazards. That has happened here two years ago and dramatically altered the scoring last year.
The fairways here are generally on the tight side and there is usually some scraggly rough around the greens so this is a course that needs to be played from the short grass. When you look at the list of past winners it is generally players who strike the golf ball purely. It might pay to have a bit of length this week as we are deep into summer so storms are never going to be far away. This is a decent test of golf which should make for a good watch.
The Field
As you would expect for a tournament of this significance the field here is very strong. One of the reasons for that is the players are guaranteed four rounds this week as there is no cut. The other is because it is the next level down from the majors. The defending champion Justin Thomas is in the field a week on from a fairly disappointing effort in the Olympics. The Open winner Collin Morikawa is in the field this week as is The Masters champion Hideki Matsuyama. The US Open champion Jon Rahm isn’t here though after the positive Covid test that forced him out of the Olympics.
Other notables who will fancy their chances this week are Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, the new Olympic champion Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Daniel Berger who has a brilliant record here, Louis Oosthuizen who has finished second in the last two majors and Viktor Hovland. The British charge on the tournament will be led by Paul Casey and Matt Fitzpatrick while Bryson DeChambeau will be popular too.
Market Leaders
We have a really bunched up market at the head of the betting this week but there is a clear favourite and that is Brooks Koepka. He looks a rock solid favourite having won this tournament back in 2019 and then finishing second in defence of his title last year. He comes in here with four top six finishes in his last five starts, three of which have been majors, so he very much looks like the one to beat this week, even more so when he skipped the Olympics so won’t have any jet lag issues.
Two Open champions come next in the betting at 14/1 in the form of Jordan Spieth and Collin Morikawa. You wouldn’t think the former is solid enough off the tee to cope with this test but he is on a crazy run of nine top 10 finishes in his last 14 starts. He hasn’t been a feature here before though so I’ll pass him over. Morikawa is of more interest but he’s coming back from the Olympics which isn’t ideal and that win at The Open might still be a little too fresh for his best golf to come out. He’s a tad short anyway.
The Olympic champion Xander Schauffele is next in the market at 16/1. You only had to look at the emotions he showed when winning the gold medal last week to know what that win meant to him and I’m reluctant to take players who had an emotional high or rollercoaster of emotions the week before. Then factor in the changing time zones he has been through in the last week or so and while you have to respect him, he becomes easy to pass over at 16/1.
Dustin Johnson is the only man in the field who is shorter than 20/1. You can get him at 18/1 on the best prices and you would have to file him in the leading contender drawer even though he probably hasn’t shown his best form for a while. He twice won the St Jude Classic around here before the event got upgraded to WGC status and he generally comes good at this time in a season with the big bucks up for grabs around the corner. A win here would put him as a leading contender to defend the FedEx Cup so he shouldn’t be ruled out here.
Main Bets
He might not be in the absolute top form that we usually expect of Dustin Johnson but even so I’m still surprised we can get 18/1 on a man who has won around here twice prior to the event becoming a WGC. It isn’t like he can’t win big tournaments so the fact he hasn’t won in the last two years is hardly a negative. There were signs that he was coming good again at The Open and although he missed the cut in the following event at the 3M Open, his caddy was absent due to Covid so I’m prepared to give him that. Crucially DJ hasn’t got to overcome the 14 hour time difference that those who were in the Olympics have to do. Tee to green machines come to the fore here and when he’s on it few better Johnson in that discipline. I’ll take him this week.
If I’m honest, Daniel Berger is probably a bit short at 22/1 this week but he’s short for a reason, that being that he has won around here twice in the pre-WGC days and just to confirm his love for this course he was second here last year. I’m not ignoring the fact he is shorter than I would like and I wouldn’t normally go near a player in that regard however the fact that so many of the fancied runners this week were in Japan last week makes me think that there is still some mileage in backing him. Berger has won a tournament this season, has three top 10s in his last six starts including in the last two majors and just loves this place. He’ll do for me for a main bet.
Outsiders
You get the feeling the next few weeks are going to be huge for Billy Horschel. He is desperate to be at the Ryder Cup at the end of the year and having won the last WGC event in Austin, he doesn’t have to do a huge amount to be a factor in the race for that team. A win here would as good as secure that position for him even if it was only as a wildcard pick and he has the track where he can blossom enough to do it. Horschel has five top 10 finishes in his last seven starts around this place so he clearly enjoys the course. He’s overpriced at around the 70/1 mark.
Cameron Champ won on his last outing and while I wouldn’t normally take someone who won previously because of the emotional energy that is absorbed in winning, he won two weeks ago not last week so he has had enough time to come back down to earth and go again. That win at the 3M Open wasn’t a huge surprise because there had been signs that his putting was coming good once again. His long game has always been pretty special so when he combined a hot putter with that he was never going to be far away. This will be tougher given the field he’s in with but he ran hot at the USPGA Championship around this time last year and may well go well again here.
Tips
Back D.Johnson to win WGC St Jude Invitational (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 19.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-7)
Back C.Champ to win WGC St Jude Invitational (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
Back D.Berger to win WGC St Jude Invitational (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 23.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back B.Horschel to win WGC St Jude Invitational (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 71.00 with 888sport (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
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