We will find out who Neil Robertson will face in the World Grand Prix final on Sunday when the second semi-final of the opening Cazoo Series event of the season takes place in Coventry on Saturday evening.
That second match will see two more former world champions going at it when Stuart Bingham takes on Ronnie O’Sullivan over the best of 11 frames for the right to battle it out for the title against the Australian.
Stuart Bingham
When you consider that Stuart Bingham came here with little to no form to speak of at all this season by his usually high standards, this is very much a surprise that he has made it to this stage of the tournament. He will hope that wins over Ricky Walden, Ali Carter and then Stephen Maguire will offer him the springboard from which to make his first final of the campaign, although he will have his work cut out against a player he has beaten just three times in their 20 meetings.
The positive for Bingham this week is that he has come through a couple of deciding frames so he has performed under pressure. He has also scored pretty well in the main as well and that is generally when you know how well his game is going because that is very much his strength. He is certainly going to have to score to a high level here if he is going to book his place in the final. His all-round game will need to be good in fairness.
Ronnie O’Sullivan
I think it is fair to say that we haven’t seen anywhere near the best of Ronnie O’Sullivan this week and even the good stuff we have seen from him has been sporadic and patchy. He has been fortunate that he hasn’t played any of the top 16 in the rankings so far this week, both to mean he hasn’t been made to pay for these poor displays, but also because he hasn’t beaten anyone in that ranking band at any stage this season.
That is going to have to change if he is going to make it to his first final of the campaign and I think it is fair to say he is going to need his best performance of the week so far if he is going to win this match but the longer his quarter final went on the better he got so that is something to encourage the Rocket and his fans. Generally we see the best of O’Sullivan when there is a packed house and one table and he has a chance to show his best here.
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Head to Head
These two men have met 20 times in the past and O’Sullivan has a commanding 17-3 lead in those matches. That includes winning the last six matches. That dominance is perfectly illustrated in the frame tally where O’Sullivan holds an enormous lead of 125-75. That suggests he doesn’t just beat Bingham but when he does so he does it by a fairly comfortable margin. This will be the fourth time these two have met in a semi-final with O’Sullivan having won the previous three matches. Six of their 20 meetings have been over this best of 11 frames distance. O’Sullivan leads those 5-1 too so history is certainly on the side of the Rocket here.
Betting
This is such a hard match to bet on because both men have been inconsistent at times. Bingham has been poor leading in here but better this week, although he has this terrible record against O’Sullivan to deal with, while Ronnie has been ordinary this week and hasn’t beaten a top 16 player all season. I guess that probably means there is value on Bingham but I’m nowhere near convinced enough that he will win so I’m heading to the side markets for a bet.
Generally when these two meet there are plenty of 50 breaks. That has especially been the case recently. They last played at the Champion of Champions last month when there were five 50+ breaks in six frames while the time before that there were nine in 12. Their other three most recent meetings have seen eight in eight, five in six and seven in eight so scoring tends to be good when these two meet. That makes me think the over 7.5 50 breaks is the bet here. I don’t see either playing well enough to beat the other 6-2 or better so we should get nine frames if not more and recent history tells us that might well be enough for eight 50s.
Tips
Back Over 7.5 50+ breaks for a 3/10 stake at 2.10 with Betfair
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