The DP World Tour continues its Desert Swing this week when it shuffles from Abu Dhabi over to Dubai for the popular Dubai Desert Classic, a regular stop on what was the European Tour and is now the DP World Tour.
It was certainly popular for Paul Casey last year when he landed the title but unlike some of those before him he didn’t go on and land The Masters in the same year. He is here looking to defend the title successfully but this is a much stronger field this time around.
Recent Winners
2021 – Paul Casey
2020 – Lucas Herbert
2019 – Bryson DeChambeau
2018 – Haotong Li
2017 – Sergio Garcia
2016 – Danny Willett
2015 – Rory McIlroy
2014 – Stephen Gallacher
2013 – Stephen Gallacher
2012 – Rafa Cabrera Bello
The Course
It is once again the Majlis Course at the Emirates Golf Club which is the host course this week. In the main this course has held the tournament every year so the track is well known to the regulars at this event. The course is a par 72 which measures 7,353 yards although in the dry and humid air the course doesn’t play anywhere near that long. Often one defence of this course is the wind although the forecast doesn’t look too bad in that regard this week.
The rough was grown a little more here last year and it remains to be seen if that was an anomaly or the way this tournament is going to go now. Either way it is probably better to be longer off the tee than accurate but largely this will become a test of the short game whether around the greens or on them. This is now a Rolex Series event so we can expect the cream to rise to the top on a course which allows that to happen.
The Field
As mentioned, this is the second Rolex Series event of the year and as such we have a decent field taking to the golf course. It is headed by the star European pairing of Rory McIlroy and Viktor Hovland but there is no guarantee the title remains in Europe because The Open champion and Race to Dubai winner Collin Morikawa is also in the field this week. That trio of players set the standard this week but they are far from the only stars on show.
The defending champion Paul Casey will be looking to hang onto the title and he’ll be aiming to keep the likes of Tyrrell Hatton, Adam Scott, Shane Lowry and Sergio Garcia at bay. One man who could be dangerous is Thomas Pieters who is looking to complete a quick double in the desert after he took down the Abu Dhabi Championship last week. Ian Poulter, Nicolai Hojgaard and Rasmus Hojgaard are other notables in the field while Lucas Herbert swerved the Farmers Insurance Open to play in this which might be a tip in itself.
Market Leaders
Rory McIlroy is an 8/1 favourite to win the tournament for a third time this week. This will be the first time he tees it up here in four years though and depending on whether your glass is half full or half empty he either showed very little last week in Abu Dhabi or needed the week to shake off the rust for this one. It was probably the latter but McIlroy starts tournaments slowly far too often for my liking these days. I’m not saying he won’t win here but I don’t see him as a value play.
Viktor Hovland will tee it up as a 10/1 shot this week. He would have felt that he should have won in Abu Dhabi last week having done all the hard work of hanging tough during the windswept round but he faded down the back nine. He is perfectly good enough to take a tournament of this kind down and is probably better suited to here than last week but his chipping remains a concern to me and giving strokes away around the green isn’t a great recipe for success.
Collin Morikawa would have had the weekend off last week had the wind not been as bad as it was in the second round but carding +5 for the four rounds isn’t the ideal preparation for this tournament. He know he can go well in Dubai as he nearly stole the DP World Tour Championship from a country mile back at the end of last season but you sense others in the field are better suited to this sort of test than he so at 12/1 I can’t say I’m hugely inspired to get involved here.
Tyrrell Hatton is the only other player in the field who is shorter than 20/1. He is 18/1 to win this tournament. I thought he had plenty in his advantage last week but could only finish in the top 10 courtesy of a decent final round. Hatton has a couple of third placed finishes around here so he definitely shouldn’t be ignored but given his up and down form of late I’d be looking for a little more than 18/1 in a stacked field like this one.
Main Bets
Sergio Garcia is a former winner of this tournament and I fancy he can contend again here. In an ideal world he would have had a spin last week to shake off any cobwebs but on the flip side of that he didn’t get involved on a tough course with all sorts of undulations and wind which could easily put a player out of sync. We know he doesn’t need to learn this golf course, he’ll know it like the back of his hand and although the greens have been relaid since we were last here I don’t see that causing Garcia problems. You sense this is a big season for Garcia ahead of next year when he’ll be looking to qualify automatically for the Ryder Cup and with form here since 2017 of 1-32-3-23-6 he looks worthy of main bet support.
Nicolai Hojgaard is going to win a lot of tournaments in his career and I think this could be one of them. He finished last season with a fourth placed finish in the DP World Tour Championship in a field similar to this one and then he opened up with a 69 last week before he was out in the worst of the wind which saw him miss the cut. That might only have fuelled the fire for him to go well this week and I’ve seen enough in that Dubai closer last year and the first round last week to know he has a game for desert golf. Nicolai followed his brother Rasmus into the winners’ circle in Italy last season and he can win again here.
Outsiders
I’m going to continue to ride the form of Alexander Bjork in this part of the world as I really do think there is a win in him soon. He finished the two Dubai events last season 19-2 and began last week with a T20 which was a lot better before a double bogey on the back nine on Sunday cost him when he was pushing a bit to post a score. The facts are Bjork is hitting the ball fairly well and he is putting brilliantly and those are the recipes for success around here. I’m getting to the point where I might depart the Bjork train but I’m on it for at least one more stop.
Romain Langasque caught my eye last week when he finished in the top 12 of a course that I’m not convinced suited. That would have been better but for the windy second round. The reason why he caught my eye is because he achieved that losing strokes off the tee. That is normally an area of strength for him so it might be that he needed the week to shake off the rust with the big dog and now he’ll bring it to the party. The rest of his game was in very good order, especially his irons which saw him gain the most shots on approach on the week. If he can bring his usual quality driving and maintain the rest of his game from last week then the Frenchman could go very well here.
Tips
Back S.Garcia to win Dubai Desert Classic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back A.Bjork to win Dubai Desert Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 71.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
Back N.Hojgaard to win Dubai Desert Classic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
Back R.Langasque to win Dubai Desert Classic for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Coral (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
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