The PGA Tour leaves Hawaii and begins the West Coast Swing this week. The California leg of the season begins with The American Express, the popular three course event which sees professionals and amateurs competing at the same time.
Si Woo Kim took advantage of the adjustment to the event last year to edge out Patrick Cantlay and the Korean will return to defend his title but there will be a different look to the event with the amateurs and three courses back in play.
Recent Winners
2021 – Si Woo Kim
2020 – Andrew Landry
2019 – Adam Long
2018 – Jon Rahm
2017 – Hudson Swafford
2016 – Jason Dufner
2015 – Bill Haas
2014 – Patrick Reed
2013 – Brian Gay
2012 – Mark Wilson
The Courses
We have three courses in action once again this week – Stadium Course, Tournament Course at PGA West and La Quinta. Each professional and their amateur partner plays the rotation of the courses once over the first three days and then those who make the cut will fight it out for the title on the Stadium Course to crown our champion across the course of Sunday.
All three courses are par 72s and none of them are especially long. They are all set up a little easier than we would expect courses to be in big tournaments to allow the amateurs to get round them relatively successfully. The standard diet for this tournament is pretty simple – hit lots of greens and make a lot of birdies. We’re looking for a winning score in the 20s under par so it is imperative we back players who make a stack of birdies.
The Field
Sometimes this can be the tournament which suffers in the West Coast Swing because the next few events are among the better on the PGA Tour but that isn’t the case this week with the world number one Jon Rahm headlining a very good field, one which also includes the FedExCup winner Patrick Cantlay as well as the defending champion Si Woo Kim and a couple of very popular American players in Scottie Scheffler and Tony Finau.
One of the reasons which draws players to this event is the fact they get a chance to partner a star of stage, screen or sport and the likes of Patrick Reed, Matthew Wolff and Russell Henley will look to take advantage of the more relaxed atmosphere. Sungjae Im, Abraham Ancer and Corey Conners are among the internationals teeing it up this week while in behind Rahm the European charge is headed by Seamus Power and Justin Rose.
Market Leaders
Jon Rahm ran into a bit of a storm from Cameron Smith at the Tournament of Champions a couple of weeks ago but other than a luke warm putter on the opening couple of days he didn’t do a whole lot wrong in that event and looks to be a very worthy 6/1 favourite this week. Rahm should drive these tracks to relatively nothing from the second shot in so as long as the quirky nature of the event and the long rounds don’t get the better of him then he looks to be the one to beat.
Patrick Cantlay chased Si Woo Kim in vain here last year, closing out with a 61 in the final round. That was the catalyst for a brilliant season for the American star and he’ll look to pick up his first title of 2022 here. He is a 9/1 shot to do just that and with top 10s in both outings in this event you would have to say whoever beats him this week has every chance of lifting the title. Other than it being early in the year there isn’t much to not like about the California native.
Scottie Scheffler is a general 18/1 shot to win the tournament this week. You sense his time to lift silverware is coming but I’m always wary of backing players who haven’t won yet to do so at a skinny price. When it happens it won’t be a surprise to anyone and the way he drives the ball it certainly wouldn’t be a surprise if he takes this down but in a birdie fest his putter can sometimes so missing so I might wait until he’s on a slightly tougher track to recommend him getting the job done.
Sungjae Im and Tony Finau are the only other players in the field who are shorter than 25/1 in the outright market. They are both 20/1 to win this week. Im is becoming a bit of a birdie monster these days as his win at the Shriners highlighted but he finally missed a cut last week which isn’t ideal. He has form figures of 12-10-12 here which is decent enough so he shouldn’t be dismissed. Finau won The Northern Trust and is improving all the time here with figures of MC-14-4 so he is another who shouldn’t be written off.
Main Bets
Those who know me will know I’m a big fan of Abraham Ancer and I never need a second invitation to go with the Mexican. I’m going to take the chance this week. One reason for that is his record here which reads MC-76-18-2-5 so after taking a couple of years to get to grips with the event he is fully aware of what it takes to contend here now. I would imagine that Ancer will have been disappointed with his form since he landed the WGC St Jude last year but a return to a place he has played well should soon sort that out. Ancer is a relaxed individual who won’t be inconvenienced by the format of the event and after a couple of weeks in Hawaii to get rust out of the system I expect him to go big this week.
Matthew Wolff has a surprisingly poor record in this tournament although I suspect some of that was the mental demons he has been open about fighting and the lack of a crowd in the two years he has played it but he finished 2021 in good touch and although recent winners have all played one of the Hawaii events prior to this tournament I don’t think Wolff will be too inconvenienced by not having done that. He had a near two month break before starting his season at the Sanderson Farms Championship and produced results of 17-2-5-11 from there on in so he can go well fresh. He sits at 11 on the birdie average statistic this season and if he can get the ball rolling this week he shouldn’t be too far away.
Outsiders
There is a bit of an all or nothing feel about proceedings at this tournament for Michael Thompson but he comes in here off the back of a top five finish at the Sony Open last week where he was fourth in the field for putting average over the week and inside the top 10 in strokes gained from tee to green, on approach and around the greens – all statistics which will serve him well this week. In the last three years here he has gone 9-MC-5 so these courses offer no problem and if he can just drive the ball fractionally better then he should be right in the mix this week.
I will also take a chance on Phil Mickelson. We are approaching the end of the days where I back Mickelson to win tournaments at this level but after he won the USPGA Championship last season we are not quite there yet. I took huge notice of the fact he played the Tournament of Champions a couple of weeks ago. It was something like the first time in 20 years he had teed it up there and that tells me he still wants to be a factor at this level this term. He drove the ball brilliantly well that week and maybe a lack of spin on the greens cost him a better finish. He is all or nothing here but he was third in 2016 and second in 2019 and having blown the cobwebs off in Hawaii for the first time in ages he might be primed to go one better this week.
Tips
Back A.Ancer to win The American Express (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back M.Thompson to win The American Express (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
Back M.Wolff to win The American Express (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-7)
Back P.Mickelson to win The American Express (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with 888sport (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
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