Less than three weeks since the Tour Championship to conclude the last PGA Tour season, the 2016/17 PGA Tour season begins when the Safeway Open gets the new campaign underway in California on Thursday.
The tournament was expected to be the one that Tiger Woods was to make his return to action in but he pulled out earlier in the week which was a real blow for the sponsors and those who had bought tickets but despite his absence a decent little field have committed to the event.
Recent Winners
2016 – Emiliano Grillo
2015 – Sangmoon Bae
2014 – Jimmy Walker
2012 – Jonas Blixt
2011 – Bryce Molder
2010 – Rocco Mediate
2009 – Troy Matteson
2008 – Cameron Beckman
2007 – Mike Weir
The Course
The tournament may have a new sponsor but there is nothing new about the course. The event remains at Silverado Spa and Resort with the North Course once again the one the 144 man field will be taking on.
The course is a par 72 which only measures 7,203 yards which isn’t particularly long by modern standards. This isn’t a low scoring course so the four par 5s need to be taken care of. Unlike a lot of PGA Tour courses these days this is a true ball strikers course and there is talk the rough is significantly denser this year so the premium on hitting the fairways is bigger.
Hitting the greens is a must around here. Those who tend to do well here rank high up on the GIR stats for the week but the greens aren’t that tricky so we don’t necessarily need the best putters as Emiliano Grillo proved last year.
The Field
There is no Tiger but his long time rival Phil Mickelson is in the field this week. Mickelson is joined by his Ryder Cup winning teammate Matt Kuchar and the man unlucky not to make Hazeltine – Justin Thomas – also lines up.
Paul Casey is probably the headline name in the field while Emiliano Grillo returns to defend the title. Exciting up and comers like Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau, Tony Finau and Patrick Rodgers all tee it up too.
Market Leaders
Paul Casey heads the betting at 12/1 this week and given his fine form in the playoffs at the end of last season that is probably justified. He hasn’t won for a while though so you are taking a leap of faith that he crosses the line at the price but he’s the best player here on paper.
Matt Kuchar should be buzzing from a solid Ryder Cup campaign and he is 16/1 to win this week although on a personal note the way he succumbed to Kaymer on the Sunday wasn’t encouraging. That said we know he’ll be in play throughout and if he has maintained sharpness after a week off he should be right there.
The defending champion Emiliano Grillo will kick off the tournament as a 20/1 shot to win an event he won at 50/1 12 months ago. The rookie of the year had an excellent season and if the burden of defending the title doesn’t weigh him down he should be there or thereabouts.
If the Phil Mickelson who played the Sunday at Hazeltine turns up this week then this field could be blown away but if the one who played the opening two days shows up he might not make the cut. All in all odds of 20/1 look about fair.
It is 22/1 bar those named four players with Justin Thomas, Kevin Na and Jon Rahm all towards the head of the betting.
Main Bets
I’ll go with a couple of main bets this week. It isn’t the easiest puzzle to solve with the majority of the leading players taking a bit of extra time off before they get their seasons underway.
The first bet is the man who was runner up to Grillo last year – Kevin Na. If Na wins it won’t be won quickly but I like his chances around here. He is a solid driver of the ball and he hits a lot of greens. If he has problems it comes with his short game and putting but I don’t think that is as much of an issue around here.
Na has a solid record in this tournament wherever it has been held having finished third in 2013 and 15th in 2011. The American starts his seasons well and at 30/1 it makes sense to back him to start this one well too.
Roberto Castro finished sixth in fairways hit on the PGA Tour last year and that is a statistic which should see him run well around here. He was also in the top 20 in the GIR statistic so he has an excellent tee to green game which is just the ticket in this tournament.
Castro showed some decent form in the last couple of events last season which suggests he is hitting the ball well and while that was last season I don’t expect much to have changed over the course of three weeks. He showed he can score last season when he was in the top 25 in par 4 and par 5 scoring average and against a weaker field on an easier layout I’m expecting him to go very well here.
Outsiders
I’ll go with three outsiders this week too. With a Web.com Tour graduate claiming this title last year I’m going to chance three more this week although the form might not be as strong after the cancellation of the Web.com Tour Championship. That said season long form should still be relevant.
Grayson Murray led the money list in the three Final Series events on the Web.com Tour just like Emiliano Grillo did 12 months ago. It isn’t just the money that interests me this week though. He led the tour in par 5 scoring, the scoring average and the all-around ranking and on what is deliberately a soft beginning to the season those are all statistics which should serve the graduate well.
J J Spaun lit up the Web.com Tour in the second half of the season and eventually ended the campaign second in greens in regulation – a big thing this week. He nailed no less than seven top 10 finishes which included a win and two runners up in the last three months of the season. If he has maintained that form he should fancy his chances over these four days.
I’ve been hearing noises about CT Kim for a while after his prowess as an amateur and having graduated from the Web.com Tour now seems like a good time to get behind him. Kim co-led the second string tour in par 4 scoring last year and he was second in the all-around ranking as well as ranking 15th in GIR. Seven top 10s over the course of the season was enough to get him on the main tour and at 125/1 I’ll pay to get if he can nail another big finish on his tour debut.
Tips
Back K.Na to win Safeway Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 31.00 with Betfair (1/4 1-5)
Back him here:
Back R.Castro to win Safeway Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back G.Murray to win Safeway Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Winner Sports (1/4 1-5)
Back him here:
Back J J Spaun to win Safeway Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Betfred (1/4 1-5)
Back him here:
Back CT Pan to win Safeway Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Skybet (1/4 1-5)
Back him here:
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