Breeders Cup Day Two
A fine Day One where we landed an 11/1 winner and a 33/1 2nd from just 3 bets. Let’s hope we can continue that into Saturday where there is a bumper 9 race Breeders Cup card, culminating in the Breeders Cup Classic.
There’s plenty to get stuck into, so here goes with bets in 4 of the 9 races. I’m leaving alone the Juvenile Fillies, the Sprint, the Juvenile, the Turf Sprint and the eagerly anticipated Turf where Flintshire, Found and Highland Reel do battle in what could be the race of the meeting.
7.43 Santa Anita: Filly & Mare Turf
I’m a fan of sticking with the best trials and here, that is the Flower Bowl although it’s rare for the winner of that to land the spoils here. Lady Eli won that race and has looked an absolute star but there’s a few niggling doubts over her wellbeing. 2nd that day was Sentiero Italia but she’s been beaten 3 times by Lady Eli and was in receipt of weight in the Flower Bowl.
Instead, I’ll side with the 3rd horse home in the Flower Bowl, Sea Calisi. Since coming over from France, she has form figures of 1213, including a win in a Grade 1. Interestingly that Grade 1 win was where she has a pacemaker in and that was her undoing last time out where Lady Eli had more tactical speed. A bigger field and a faster pace will suit and I think the race will play right into her hands, where a true stayer will come to the fore.
Back Sea Calisi (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 11.00 Bet365 (¼ odds 1-3)
Bet here:
11.01 Santa Anita: Filly & Mare Sprint
There are 2 stats that are hard to ignore in this; 4 year olds hold sway and the best trial is the TCA at Keeneland. With that in mind, I’m led towards the chances of Irish Jasper who fits both stats. She’s a winner of her last 2 starts including the TCA last time out where she displayed tactical speed to take this.
She is represented by last year’s winning trainer and looks to be the value in a very open heat.
Back Irish Jasper (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 13.00 Ladbrokes (¼ odds 1-3)
Bet here:
11.40 Santa Anita: Mile
Limato would be a popular winner for Europe but has plenty to prove racing left handed for the first time. I’m not the biggest Alice Springs fan at the price, whilst the best of Tepin would be good enough but there are enough doubts. Those 3 dominate the market, all trading at 4’s or less so I’ll go looking for the value.
Spectre, the German raider, is interesting. She has a good draw in 3 and has run creditably on her last 4 starts, all Group 1’s in France. As a girl and being part of the classic generation, she gets weight from many of her rivals and that might just be enough here. She is long overdue a big race success and it is interesting that a top US jockey takes the ride. In her 5 starts this term, she’s never started shorter than 18/1, yet has a win and 4 very good other runs to her name. I am certainly not put off by the 20/1 quotes where the front 3 are opposable and there’s not much to separate the rest.
Back Spectre (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 21.00 Ladbrokes (¼ odds 1-3)
Bet here:
12.35 Santa Anita: Classic
This is all about California Chrome and, let’s be fair, he probably should take this as a winner of 15 races including the world’s richest race, the Dubai World Cup. Arrogate is the most likely beneficiary off the back of a stunning 13 length win in the Travers but had he not won that so impressively, there’s no way quotes of 5/2 would be flying around. I’m interested in seeing how good he is but have no interest at the price.
Instead, I’ll go for a couple of value punts in Melatonin and Keen Ice. The former is a lightly raced 5 year old with 3 wins from his 5 career starts. All of those wins have been here so he can be considered something of a course specialist. He also likes to race right up with the pace so may be able to dictate the fractions. It is pretty much any price bar the front 2. So there’s definite each way value even if you expect California Chrome may bound clear off the home turn.
Keen Ice is interesting. Since finishing 4th in this last year, his form has been nothing sparkling and he’s only run once in the last 6 months finishing 4th over an inadequate mile. That should have put him spot on for this. But why take the bet? Well, he’s only a 4 year old and is the only horse to lower the colours of last year’s winner, American Pharoah (other than his debut). I’m just not having he’s declined that much in 12 months so quotes of 40/1 looks big.
Back Melatonin (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 21.00 Bet365 (¼ odds 1-3)
Back Keen Ice (w/o California Chrome) for a 1/10 stake at 19.00 Bet365
Bet on both here:
PLACED – Back Keen Ice (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 Betfred (¼ odds 1-3)
Bet here:
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