The first one day race of the 2017 UCU calendar takes place on Sunday with the 3rd Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race. This event started in 2015 as the bookend to the Australian leg of the cycling season. The race takes place in Victoria, starting and ending in Geelong.
Previous Winners
2015 – Gianni Meersman – BEL – Etixx-Quick Step
2016 – Peter Kennaugh – GBR – Team Sky
Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race – Map and Profile
The Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race is 174kms in length so it is a fairly short race for a One Day Classic.
The route is a circuit through the state of Victoria with the start and finish in Geelong. The terrain is perfect for a breakaway to form in the early stages of the days racing. For the first 50kms the riders have flat roads. From here to the finish-line the remainder of the course is lumpy.
In the 2016 race Team Sky initiated a breakaway with eventual winner Peter Kennaugh featuring heavily. The climbs, particularly in the 85 and 105km marks (see profile below) are perfect for the puncher types to escape prior to the finishing circuit.
Once the riders reach Geelong they face a 20km circuit that they rider three times. The circuit features three climbs with two of them being extremely tough. The first is the Challambra Crescent, 900m at 9.6% at the 7kms point of the circuit with 22% gradients. This is followed by a small climb of 500 metres with a 20% stretch and then the final climb at Hyland Hill.
I would be stunned if we had a big group at the finish line. It hasn’t happened in previous races and I don’t expect that to change here in 2017.
Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race – Favourites
This is a tough race to predict given that we only have two years results to work with. The bookmakers have gone heavily with the sprinters in their selections for this race. Riders that featured to the fore in the recent Tour Down Under dominate the top of the market. They include joint favourites Nathan Haas (Dimension Data) and Sam Bennett (Bora Hahnsgrohe) at 8.00. They are followed by Danny Van Poppel (Team Sky) at 9.00, Peter Sagan (Bora Hahnsgrohe) and Simon Gerrans (Orica-Scott) at 13.0 and the sprint star of the Tour Down Under Caleb Ewan (Orica-Scott) at 17.0.
Of this group I only like three of the riders – Haas, Sagan and maybe Gerrans. Haas looked really strong in the Tour Down Under and showed an ability to stay with the front group on the climbs. He looks the most likely challenger to me from this group of 7. Sagan as world number one has the racing pedigree and ability to win this race. I think he would like to come away from his Australian trip with a win but can he stick with the punchers on those steep climbs on the final circuit. I’m going to say no. Gerrans in top form would be a threat on these types of roads. I’m not convinced Gerrans has shown enough thus far this season to win this race.
I prefer to look elsewhere for my winner.
Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race – Outsiders
BMC Racing pair Rohan Dennis & Richie Porte can be backed at 23.0 and 67.0 respectively. Porte won the Tour Down Under overall and won both climbing stages so he has great legs. Dennis was there or thereabouts too and it might be a case of Porte returning the favour for Dennis and riding as support for him here. Of the top priced riders Dennis looks the best bet.
Another Australian I like is Lachlan Morton (Dimension Data). He climbs really well and returned to form in 2016 after a couple of disappointing years. Yes, he will probably be riding to support Nathan Haas, but they could play the one-two punch and a price of 151.0 has huge value as a small EW punt.
Esteban Chaves (Orica-Scott) finished runner-up to Porte in the Tour Down Under. We all know about his climbing ability from his Grand Tour results last season. Here he can be backed at 101.00 for the win. This has back me written all over it!
Chris Froome (Team Sky) the three-time Tour De France winner makes his 2017 UCI debut here on Sunday. He has never really gone well in One Day Classic races which is something of a surprise given his elite climbing ability and time trial skills. If you fancied a flutter you can back him at 151.0. Not for me though. I actually prefer his new team-mate Kenny Ellisonde at 501.0. He will be under the radar and not marked as closely as the teams bigger names. Ellisonde showed an ability to attack and escape in 2016 but he couldn’t finish off those breaks. Look for Team Sky to teach him to close races.
Jarlinson Pantano (Trek-Segafredo) always seemed to be on the attack in last years Tour de France. That got him a big move from IAM Cycling to Trek in the off-season. He can definitely climb and you could do worse at 81.0.
Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race – Tips
REMEMBER THE RACE STARTS JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT UK TIME – SO GET YOUR BETS IN EARLY!
Bet on Lachlan Morton to win the CEGOR with a 0.5/10 stake EW at 151.0 (1/4 odds top 3) with Paddy Power.
Back Esteban Chaves to win the CEGOR with a 0.5/10 stake EW at 101.00 (1/4 odds top 3) with Paddy Power.
Bet on Kenny Ellisonde to win the GECOR with a 0.25/10 stake EW at 501.0 (1/4 odds top 3) with Paddy Power.
Back Rohan Dennis to win the CEGOR with a 0.75/10 stake EW at 23.00 (1/4 odds top 3) with Paddy Power.
Bet on all four of them here:
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