We have reached the second half of the 2017 Cheltenham Festival and after two excellent days of racing so far, two more remain beginning with another busy day on Thursday. The feature race of the day is the Stayers’ Hurdle which we’ve previewed separately and here are the rest of our bets for the penultimate day of the Festival.
1.30: JLT Novice Chase
The opening race is a fascinating contest and backed by the ‘money back’ offer from Skybet, it’s a race to get involved in. There are just the bare 8 runners and Willie Mullins’ Yorkhill is the very warm favourite. He won the Neptune last season and has won 3 of his 4 starts over fences but has started as odds on each time. He’s never really impressed with his jumping and I don’t think he can get away with silly mistakes in this field, especially with the likes to Top Notch and Politologue in opposition. He’s a future star if he can brush up on his fencing but isn’t the most solid 11/8 shot in the world.
Top Notch is one of 2 Nicky Henderson runners and looks the most obvious alternative to the favourite. He’s won his last 4 over fences and generally jumps well so should be in the mix. The worry is that the ground may just be a little too lively for him so I prefer to look elsewhere. His other runner is Kilcrea Vale and 25/1 is a fair reflection of his chances in this small but select field.
Disko has a great chance and is another good jumper but hasn’t always done himself justice. Connections feel the ground is perfect but his best run this season came last time out on genuine soft ground. I prefer the chances of Paul Nicholls’ Politologue which is believed to be his best chance of the week. What I like about this chance is his jumping. He’s fast over his fences and has been noted as jumping well on his most recent starts. He’s 3 from 4 over the big obstacles and likes to dictate the fractions which he should be able to do here. All his winter runs have been on soft ground but there’s an angle to suggest he’ll improve for the faster going. If that proves to be the case, the odds on offer look very tempting indeed.
Flying Angel is the other horse worthy of a mention and could run into a place at bigger odds.
Tips
Back Politologue (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 6.50 Skybet (⅕ odds 1-3 BOG) – MONEY BACK IF IT LOSES – YOU CAN’T LOSE!!!
Back him here:
2.10: Pertemps Final
A 24 runner cavalry charge isn’t normally the best race to go wading into so I’ll keep stakes small on a handicapper I’ve been keeping a close eye on, Rocklander. Since moving to Tom George’s yard 12 months ago, he’s raced 7 times over hurdles winning 2 and finishing runner up in the other 5. That’s some seriously consistent form that has seen him shoot up the weights from 113 to today’s mark of 140.
He started out over 2 miles but has run over 3 miles (or thereabouts) the last twice. The first of those was when he finished a neck 2nd to well handicapped Cogry over today’s course and distance. Last time in a qualifier for this, he again finished 2nd when being held up in rear didn’t really help his chances. The winner that day reopposes here and is vying for favouritism but is 7lbs worse off with our selection. The bigger field, the faster pace and the better ground are all in Rocklander’s favour here and it is hoped that this race will change the stable’s Cheltenham fortunes. Whilst his horses have been running very well, he can consider himself unlucky not to have had a winner with Singlefarmpayment beaten in a head bobber and Gods Own looking very dangerous in the Champion Chase when hitting 2 out hard. Odds of 22/1 looks generous.
Tips
Back Rocklander (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 23.00 Bet365 (¼ odds 1-5 BOG)
Back it here:
4.50: Dawn Run Novice Hurdle
Our final bets of the day both run in this novice hurdle over 2 miles 2 furlongs. Again, there’s a Mullins hotpot in Lets Dance but as I’ve already mentioned, I’m staying away from them until he gets a winner on the card. He also has 2 of the other 4 in the first 5 in the market which, if we apply this rule rigidly, leaves us with La Bague Au Roi and Forge Meadow.
The former represents the same connections as Cole Harden and she’s won 6 of her 7 hurdle starts but it’s questionable what she has beat. Admittedly she could be very smart but this bigger field and better opposition could find her out. Instead, I’m siding with Mrs Harrington’s Forge Meadow who has been targeted at this race since winning a Grade 2 at Naas a month ago. She has progressed during the season and despite some defeats earlier in the season, she was very taking in her 8 length beating of Joey Sasa last time. She travelled powerfully and quickened up in taking style on ground too soft for her. She’s also shown a liking for bigger fields, something not all these mares can handle, so she has all the attributes for a big run especially as she’s a steady improver and now has her ground.
At a bigger price, I cannot ignore the chances of Tow The Line, another Irish challenger. A decent type on the flat, winning at Listed level, before showing some good form in hurdles over the last 12 months. Another who will appreciate the going, she has been noted as quickening up well in her one win over hurdles. What also impresses me is she also likes the bigger fields having never been out of the places in 5 runs including places in 14, 17 and 20 runner fields. She finishes off her races well and will be staying on when others have cried enough. I cannot ignore the 20/1 being offered.
Tips
Back Forge Meadow (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 11.00 Coral (¼ odds 1-3 BOG)
Back it here:
Back Toe The Line (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 21.00 Bet365 (¼ odds 1-3 BOG)
Back it here:
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