With the Champions Trophy now less than a week away England have the chance to secure their warm up series against South Africa with a match to spare when the two sides do battle at the Ageas Bowl in Southampton on Saturday.
Although the focus will be on preparation for next week’s tournament both sides will want to go there with a series win to their name so we can expect South Africa to look to level the series with a win here.
England
There wasn’t a whole lot wrong with England’s display at Headingley on Wednesday. If you were being hyper critical you could suggest that a couple of their top order made starts but didn’t go on and get the big scores they would have wanted but for a first meaningful game of the summer it was very good.
England will be pleased with their bowling effort at Headingley. On what was a really good pitch for batting they kept to their plans and never let South Africa get away from them and the constant pressure they were able to maintain eventually took its toll and England were able to run out dominant winners.
South Africa
I’m sure South Africa will be the first ones to admit that their performance in that first ODI wasn’t up to scratch but at the same time I doubt they will panic just yet. I would imagine that the plan was always to peak for their first match in the Champions Trophy rather than any of the three matches in this series.
South Africa don’t lose many matches in this format of the game and they lose two on the two even less so we are likely to see a much better performance from them here. In fairness to them 35 overs into England’s innings South Africa will have been happy so there isn’t a lot more that they need to do to get it right.
Team News
England have confirmed that Ben Stokes is fit to play and will be available to bowl but whether they decide to risk him ahead of the Champions Trophy remains to be seen. David Willey and Jonny Bairstow wait in the wings should they choose not to risk him.
AB de Villiers said at the toss in Leeds that South Africa aim to give all 15 members of their Champions Trophy squad game time in this series but whether they make a load of changes here remains to be seen. Morne Morkel could come in to bolster the bowling.
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Betting
If we knew for sure that Ben Stokes was fit and going to have his usual role in the match then I would probably chance England in this match but the fact that we don’t and that South Africa rarely lose back to back matches in this format means I am put off backing the home side so I will head to the side markets for bets.
Although the Ageas Bowl is the best one day wicket in England these days that doesn’t mean that sixes come naturally. This is a huge outfield. A whole lot bigger than the Headingley one and we only saw 14 sixes in that match and in truth it is hard to believe South Africa can bowl as bad in the last 15 overs again so I’m not expecting many sixes here.
No full 50 over match has had a double figure total for sixes on this ground so a 12.5 sixes line looks very high to me and clearly an overreaction to England’s innings on Wednesday. I don’t see this one being threatened especially if Stokes isn’t at full capacity.
Eoin Morgan has a wonderful record on this ground. He averages more than 70 in ODIs here and having top scored for England in their last two matches he looks a great bet at 9/2 to top score for the home side here. Morgan was hitting the ball brilliantly at Headingley and his cricket brain allows him to know when to take risks and when not to. I expect a big showing from England’s skipper.
Tips
WON – Back Under 12.5 sixes for a 7/10 stake at 1.80 with Coral
Back it here:
Back E.Morgan Top England Batsman for a 2/10 stake at 5.50 with Boylesports
Back him here:
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