After three days of emotional highs and lows we are down to the final day of the Cheltenham Festival. Gold Cup day is traditionally a tough puzzle to solve with a number of wide open handicaps and the juveniles and novices taking centre stage before then but with some profit in the bank we can attack the day with confidence. Here are the thoughts on the undercard to the Gold Cup itself.
1.30: Triumph Hurdle
Favourite
Just 9 runners for the Triumph but what a race this looks on paper. Apples Shakira has done nothing wrong & deservedly sits at the head of the market but, despite course form, she’s looked a little bit workmanlike & could be vulnerable to something unexposed. That said, she keeps pulling out more so it’s a case of wait & see but at under 2/1, I’d want to be against her.
Preview
Stormy Ireland won by 58 lengths on her Irish debut but I’ve no idea what she achieved. Whilst unexposed, her price of 11/2 is too short. If this race was run at Kempton & on better ground, I’d be all over Redicean but it’s not; he’s a horse I really like & I hope he runs a good race but I have a nagging doubt the stiff track will blunt his speed.
Betting
The 2 I think are hard to ignore are the 1st & 2nd from the Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown, Mr Adjudicator and the selection, Farclas. It’s traditionally been a good trial for the Triumph & quite often, the beaten horses have been the ones to side with come Cheltenham.
The winner probably has the speed edge but I fancy the runner up to turn the tables with a stiffer track and extra furlong is his favour. That run was an improvement on his first run when 2nd to top juvenile Espoir D’Allen where, again, he was only outpointed late on. His yard has had 6 winners in the last 2 days here & it would be no surprise for this horse to get Gold Cup day off to a flyer.
Tips
WON AT 9/1- Back Farclas (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 8.00 Boylesports BOG (⅕ odds 1-3)
Back it here:
2.10: County Handicap Hurdle
Preview
A 26 runner handicap over 2 miles & a furlong which is sure to be a tough race to solve but I can’t resist throwing 3 darts at it, all at massive prices. Gordon Elliott & Willie Mullins are responsible for 6 of the first 7 in the market & I’m not sure I’m able to figure out which of them holds the best chance so I’ll look further down for 3 speculative bets.
Betting
The first of those is Spiritofthegames who ran a super race in the Betfair Hurdle, staying on to be 3rd behind Supreme 2nd Kalashnikov & Bleu Et Rouge who is battling for favouritism in this race. Our horse is 8lb better off for 8 lengths but will be more suited by the track & stiffer test of stamina. Previous to that, he was 2nd in the 2 mile 5 furlong Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton, with the 3 others in the first 4 finishing 2nd, 4th & 6th in the Coral Cup on Wednesday. That looks rock solid form and with his mark unchanged from the Betfair Hurdle, I expect him to run a huge race.
I’m now down in the weeds for the other 2 bets. Brelade is one of the unfanced Elliott runners but I like his chances. He’s coming back to the smaller obstacles after failing to cut it over fences, although his form does include 2 runner-up spots to Footpad & Petit Mouchoir. In his hurdle campaign last year, he showed form in a massive field, winning his 30 runner maiden before some solid efforts in defeat with a 2nd & 3rd in consecutive Grade 1 novice hurdles. He also ran very well in the Neptune but only managed to finish 6th as the trip & the shape of the race were both against him. His handicap mark of 141 could prove to be very lenient.
At an even bigger price, I’m hoping Divin Bere returns to form. He was 2nd when favourite in last year’s Fred Winter and is only 2lb higher here. He is now trained by Paul Nicholls who has 4 winners & 2 2nds in the last 14 years. Quite frankly, his form this year has been rubbish but he’s no 40/1 shot given his run at last year’s Festival & the stable’s record in this race. A tongue tie goes on too which might just help.
Tips
PLACED – Back Spiritofthegames (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 21.00 Bet365 BOG (¼ odds 1-5)
Back Brelade (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 34.00 Paddy Power BOG (⅕ odds 1-6)
Back Divin Bere (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 41.00 Skybet BOG (⅕ odds 1-6)
2.50: Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle
Favourite
A 3 mile hurdle for novices on bad ground is going to be stamina sapping & I’m firmly in the camp of experience here. It quite often makes all the difference. Santini is a worthy favourite after winning his last 2 but steps up in trip by half a mile & this is only his 3rd start over hurdles.
Preview
Chef Des Obeaux was beaten by Santini on his seasonal debut but has since won 3 on the spin, is proven over the trip & will like the ground. He’s going to be hard to keep out of the frame.
Ok Corral, the 2nd Henderson horse, is an interesting type & I think his trainer holds a strong hand here but I’m siding with the bigger priced Poetic Rhythm. He likes Cheltenham, having won & been placed 3rd 3 times at decent prices, & is one of the more experienced horses in the field having had 7 starts over hurdles. He opened this year with a game win in the Grade 2 Persian War at Chepstow, before giving weight to top class On The Blind Side here where he went down by just 2 lengths.
That was an excellent run & gives him an excellent chance here. His last run was 3 months ago where he battled well to just about land the spoils in the Challow Hurdle on this sort of going. He’s going up in trip but he looks a stayer & I think that experience will help him in what is sure to be a tough race.
Tips
PLACED – Back Poetic Rhythm (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 15.00 Betfair Sportsbook BOG (⅕ odds 1-4)
Back it here:
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4.50: Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle
Preview
Another race where the Irish hold massive claims & where 6 of the first 7 in the market are from the other side of the water. However, this time, I’m backing 2 of them, with my angle being to side with horses running in their first handicap hoping their opening mark is lenient.
Betting
The first of them is Early Doors from the Joseph O’Brien yard. He has a mark of 142 and has already recorded a RPR of 144, that’s a good sign. He was a good bumper horse & transitioned that form to hurdles when winning his first 2, the 2nd of which was a Grade 3 where Thursday’s big handicap winner Delta Work was only 3rd. He then ran in the Grade 1 Royal Bond & was the only one to give Mengli Khan a race. That form is as good as anything on offer & with the step up in trip an unknown but likely to suit, he comes here with a big chance. I can ignore his last run as he took on the mighty Samcro in the Deloitte so a 20 length beating was probably to be expected. A return to winning ways would be no surprise.
The 2nd selection is Carter Mckay, a lightly raced horse who is already 7 years old. He’s another that has posted a RPR higher than his opening mark & gets in here off 138 despite finishing 3rd in both a Grade 2 & Grade 1 on his last 2 starts. He won his maiden in fine style on this sort of ground where it looked like he’d need to step up in trip from 2 miles. He was, however, kept at the minimum trip for his run in the Grade 2 Moscow Flyer & ran creditably behind Getabird & Mengli Khan. Again, he left the impression that he needed further but 6 furlongs was possibly stretching it. He held every chance approaching the last but that last furlong was a step too far. Back down to 2 and a half miles, this good hurdler looks to have a leading chance on ground that will suit.
Tips
PLACED – Back Early Doors (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 11.00 Bet365 BOG (¼ odds 1-5)
Back Carter Mckay (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 17.00 Boylesports BOG (⅕ odds 1-5)
Back it here:
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