The opening day of the turf flat season did not go to plan with the draw & going scuppering our chances. However, there’s another chance to get off the mark with the Irish version of the Lincoln taking place at Naas.
Preview
There are 20 runners to look at & heavy ground to factor in to our calculations but there’s a definite angle in with regards to this race & that’s the draw. The Irish Lincoln was always run at the Curragh but last season it was held at Naas, as it is today. Naas does not have a straight mile & you have to navigate a left hand turn meaning low drawn horses are strongly favoured; last year, the first 6 home were drawn 3-8-1-2-5-4 in a field of 17.
Favourite
It looks like the Harrington’s will have the favourite in Pincheck who is 2 from 2 here but, both times, from an excellent draw. He’s been gelded over the winter but his worst run last term was his reappearance & a draw of 11 is mildly offputting. On The Go Again has the prime draw in 1 but he might need a bit further than this & his hold up style could prove difficult to overcome.
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Betting
Our first bet is that of thrice-raced Hit The Silk. 2nd at 16/1 on his debut in a claimer who trying to give 19lbs to the 66/1 winner before hosing up by 3 lengths on this sort of ground over 7 furlongs, where he didn’t look to be favoured by the weights. He was considered good enough to step up to Listed company next time out at Leopardstown where he finished 7th on ground too lively.
However, he was held up last & made up some significant ground in the straight suggesting this extra furlong will suit. Again, the weights were against him &, by way of example, he was half a length behind Onenightidreamed, who reopposes here, but our horse is 8lbs better off. Lightly raced, draw well in 7 & open to any amount of improvement, he’s got a big each way chance with Chris Hayes, jockey for his only win, back on board.
More speculative is our second bet, Wild As The Wind, who is drawn in 6 & trades at 16/1. Another lightly raced type with just 4 runs on the clock but, like our first bet, has a solid run outside of handicap company to recommend her. She opened last term with a 5th of 12 in a Group 3 here, making late headway from off the pace. The ground was bordering on heavy so she’ll be suited by the going. She was just over a length behind Group 2 winner & 114 rated Somehow that day so a mark here of just 87 is lenient, especially with a promising claimer taking a further 7lbs off. If she can reproduce that form after a track absence of just under a year, she’s going to be a danger at all.
Tips
Back Hit The Silk (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 13.00 Betfair BOG (⅕ odds 1-5)
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Back Wild As The Wind (e/w) for a 0.75/10 stake at 17.00 Boylesports BOG (⅕ odds 1-5)
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