There are two top quality races taking place at home and overseas on Saturday but it isn’t just about them on th horse racing front. The support cards throughout the day are of sufficient quality too and we’ve picked out three in them. We’ve gone with bets at Newmarket, Goodwood and one at Wetherby to compliment our bets in the 2000 Guineas and the Kentucky Derby.
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1.50 Newmarket
Preview
Always a top handicap, this attracts some good types for this 9 furlong Class 2 race. This year is no exception. Sharja Bridge is quite a warm order & he really could be a class above being so lightly raced but he is unproven & 3/1 in a 16 runner handicap with some proven types doesn’t appeal to me.
Betting
I can give chances to Tricorn, Brorocco & Cote D’Azur but I’m siding with former Cambridgeshire winner Third Time Lucky, a horse we backed on his last run when finishing 6th in the Spring Cup at Newbury. He sat a little too far off the pace that day & has been dropped another 2lb to a mark of just 93. At some point, it will all just click & when it does, he’ll hose up off this sort of mark. Today might just be the day with the yard in terrific form.
There is plenty more to recommend him. He’s a winner of 5 of his 19 turf starts but most of his recent form has been on the sand (the last 12 months) where he’s not as good. I can forgive his last 2 runs on account of the ground & he’s sure to be seen in good light back on good ground. In fact, his best form has been on good or firmer including a win against 33 rivals & a 4th of 31 over course & distance in consecutive Cambridgeshire’s. The win came off 95, the 4th off 100 but he’s off 93 today.
He has a good draw & provided he gets a decent tow into the race, I find it hard to see him being out of the frame.
Tips
PLACED – Back Third Time Lucky (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 12.00 BetVictor BOG (¼ odds 1-4)
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2.40 Goodwood
Preview
A competitive 15 runner Class 2 handicap over the specialist trip of 7 furlong. The ground is drying all the time & I’m expecting good ground by post time. I feel a low draw & a good early position is important around Goodwood & that bodes well for our selection.
Betting
I’m siding with another horse that I’ve already backed this year, as recently as last week in fact, in Masham Star. He’s drawn well in 1 & has form over 7 furlongs although I think he needs a decent pace at this trip. He should get it here in this field.
The key is good ground. His mark fell from a high of 101 to 97 by the end of last season but, during that time, he raced pretty much exclusively on ground with soft in the description. His only decent run was on good ground over this course & distance when finishing 5th of 19 in a hot handicap. This season, his mark has dropped even further to just 91 but ground has been against him. It was soft bordering on heavy at Musselburgh &, last week, he ran ok on soft but struggled in the final furlong (1 mile). It didn’t help either that he lost his right hind shoe early in the race after clipping heels.
In the last 12 months, he’s won off 10, finished 2nd 4 times off marks between 97 & 100, and he’s now in here off just 91. With the track likely to suit & the stable jockey back on board, I’m hoping for a return to the winners enclosure.
Tips
Back Masham Star (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 9.00 Betfair Sportsbook BOG (⅕ odds 1-4)
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3.05 Wetherby
Preview
A cracking Class 2 handicap for the track, over 1 mile with 16 going to post. Gulf Of Poets has won his last 2 but this is much tougher off 7lb higher whilst Original Choice has a massive shout on last year’s form but is drawn out in the car park.
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Betting
Therefore, I’m keeping this simple & going with the unlucky Humbert to finally & deservedly win a big race on turf. He’s been progressive over the winter on the all-weather & since returning to turf, he’s run 2 massive races in defeat.
First up, he was a neck 2nd in the Spring Mile at Doncaster on soft ground off a mark of 90. He stayed on well that day & was unlucky to be denied. It was then a case of deja vu when suffering exactly the same fate in the Spring Cup at Newbury off 94. He was narrowly denied by the same margin, with Taqdeer landing the spoils.
He’s up another 3lbs but he’s recorded some excellent RPRs in the process of those 2 defeats so I’m not too worried. He has a good draw in 3 & will likely sit up with the leaders before kicking on off the home bend. The stable remains in good form & with slightly better ground expected to bring out some improvement, it is hoped he’ll finally land the big prize his consistency deserves.
Tips
Back Humbert (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 6.50 Boylesports BOG (¼ odds 1-4)
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