There are a few hours until The Open begins at Carnoustie which means we have just enough time to get stuck into the side markets for the event. These markets, mostly formed of players with the same nationalities or a certain finishing position, can provide a nice top up to the profit for the week as we saw at the US Open last month so it would be wrong not to have a look at them.
I always think of all the majors this is the one which throws up the best value in the side markets. With it being a major nearly every nationality has been priced up while we’ve also requested a few bets which we are going to indulge in.
Top Englishman
One of the biggest markets for the week is the one for the Top Englishman. There are a wide number of English players in the field this week and I would say that this tournament more than any other you can make a case for quite a few of them.
Justin Rose is the favourite to win it but I’ve said elsewhere that I can’t be having him with his links record. In fact, I would probably make Tommy Fleetwood the favourite given that he holds the course record here, even though the course will play much different this week. Paul Casey, Ian Poulter, Andy Sullivan, Matt Fitzpatrick and Lee Westwood will be looking for good weeks too.
I like one other man though. Tyrrell Hatton has won the last two Dunhill Links which means he knows how to handle the links when the conditions are tough so he should be nicely tuned in for this week. He warmed up for the event with a solid run in Scotland last week and if he puts four rounds together he should be there or thereabouts this week. We’re getting four places in this market and I don’t see Hatton being out of the places so he looks an each way bet to nothing against a vulnerable favourite.
Top Australian
There are a few Australians in the field this week which makes for a tight and select market for the leading Australian. Jason Day, Marc Leishman and Adam Scott all get the spotlight which is understandable as all three could have won this in the past but there are doubts over all three. In fairness of the trio Leishman could be hard to beat but I’m prepared to take them on with another man.
That player is Cameron Smith who has the profile to go very nicely this week. He is decent enough off the tee and has one of the better short games around. We’ve seen in the past that he is comfortable in the wind and with putting a big thing this week that might elevate him above Adam Scott. With Day weak off the tee this week Smith looks to be the pick of the challengers to Leishman.
Top American
The biggest market among the nationalities is the one for the Top American and given the current world rankings this is a very competitive market. That is highlighted by the fact that the bookmakers are going 13/2 the field in it.
Dustin Johnson looks a worthy favourite in the market but the head of it is pretty much a who’s who of current golf with the likes of Rickie Fowler, Justin Thomas, Patrick Reed and the defending champion Jordan Spieth all high up in the betting not to mention a certain Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson.
US Open champion Brooks Koepka is my pick for this market though. He has the power to clear most of the danger on this golf course and we’ve seen with the way he has won the last two US Open’s on their idea of links courses that he is competent in the wind and on courses of this type. He has gone well in the Dunhill Links in the past too which further highlights that. His short game is up there with the best of them and at 11/1 I fancy he could be the one to lead the American charge this week.
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Top 20 Finish
As well as the outright market all of the field have been priced up to finish in the top 20 which actually offers a little more value for us. Despite 20 places being available in this market there are still some decent prices to be had and I’m going for a couple of them.
Haotong Li led a Sunday charge at Royal Birkdale last year and since then he has won the Dubai Desert Classic so it is fair to say he has no issues with exposed tracks. He is a wonderful striker of the ball and we saw in The Open last year that he has a short game that can compete. He is very creative around the greens and is not someone who will wilt when in contention. At 5/1 he looks a good bet.
Slightly shorter than that is Brandt Snedeker. He has finished third in this tournament in the past and anyone who follows him on twitter will know he has been here since the weekend preparing for the tournament. He is another who has the profile to succeed around here. He is straight off the tee and is a wonderful chipper and putter. Whether he has the class to win or contend I’m not sure but he can beat off the players out of their depth to end up with a solid pay day from the week.
Request a Bet
Various bookmakers offer requested bets on this tournament these days and we have asked a few of them to price up some multiples for us and there are a couple that we like the look of.
We’ve gone with six bets for the tournament outright – Alex Noren, Francesco Molinari, Louis Oosthuizen, Thomas Pieters, Emiliano Grillo and Anirban Lahiri and they have been priced up at 16/1 to all make the cut. I really think all six have the game to go well on this course so while I wouldn’t normally place a bet that needs six men to deliver the goods I think the price is perfectly acceptable when you consider four of them would be odds on as singles to be here for the weekend.
I’ve also had a fourfold of Brooks Koepka, Tyrrell Hatton, Alex Noren and Francesco Molinari all priced up to finish in the top 20 including ties. I certainly didn’t expect to get 40/1 on them. I’ve made strong enough cases for Noren and Molinari in the outright preview while Koepka has only finished outside the top 20 once in his last 11 majors and he was T21 on that occasion. Hatton has a fine record on the Scottish links so this looks to have plenty of legs at a huge price.
Tips
Back T.Hatton Top Englishman (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 9.50 with Boylesports (1/5 1-4)
Back A.Noren/F.Molinari/L.Oosthuizen/T.Pieters/E.Grillo/A.Lahiri all to make the cut for a 1/10 stake at 17.00 with Boylesports
Back B.Koepka/T.Hatton/A.Noren/F.Molinari all top 20 finish (inc ties) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Boylesports
Back them here:
Back B.Koepka Top American (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 12.00 with Coral (1/4 1-4)
Back him here:
Back H.Li Top 20 Finish for a 2/10 stake at 6.00 with Betfair
Back him here:
Back C.Smith Top Australian (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 13.00 with Betfred (1/3 1-2)
Back B.Snedeker Top 20 Finish for a 2/10 stake at 5.50 with Bet365
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