The hours are counting down until The Open begins on the Scottish links of Carnoustie and ahead of the eagerly awaited tee off there is time to have a look at the opening round which will take place on Thursday.
A stacked field will all be looking to get the early initiative in the third major of the season across what will be a busy day of golf with the opening tee time being 06.35 BST and play unlikely to finish much before 21.00 BST. There will be big names everywhere we look so we’re set for an exciting beginning to the day.
First Round Leader
As ever on the opening day of a major championship the first market to look at is the one to determine the first round leader. As always when we bet on this market we need to look at the format and on this occasion everyone is off on the first tee with tee times going from 06.35 BST through until 16.16 BST.
Having understood that we then need to look at the weather where the forecast is for the wind to increase into the afternoon. It won’t be drastically bad at any stage but common logic would dictate that the lesser the wind the easier the conditions should be to score so I’m going to look for morning starters who can give it a bit of a biff.
I’ve picked out two who fit the bill. Brandon Stone finished last week like a train to make it into this week and you’ve got to think he will be free rolling over these four days. The fact that just being here will be a bonus may well free him up to go on the attack from his 08.36 BST tee time. He has the length to cover the majority of the trouble and as we saw last week he has the pinpoint iron play from distance. He’s out in a good spot so a low round shouldn’t be beyond him. I expect him to be in the 60s here.
Another man who can cover the majority of the fairway bunkers, or play around them where needed, is Tony Finau. I backed him to win this tournament two years ago and got a really good run for my money. We’ve seen him win and contend in windy events stateside since then and if the big dog works when he pulls it out the rest of his game can get him round in a tidy score.
Thursday 3 Balls
As well as the first round leader market we have the first round three balls to go at and as usual with major championships each of the 52 groups onto the golf course have been priced up. Usually in majors we see three or four marquee groups to get the bulk of the TV coverage but the R&A have mixed it up this week to ensure the star names fill the coverage from start to finish and to allow some of the lesser lights a bit of the spotlight.
There are still some really appealing groups which include the defending champion Jordan Spieth out alongside Justin Rose and Kiradech Aphibarnrat at 09.58 BST while the following group sees Rickie Fowler out with Jon Rahm and Chris Wood. Later in the day Rory McIlroy is out with Marc Leishman and Thorbjorn Olesen at 12.53 BST while all eyes will be on a certain Tiger Woods who is out with Hideki Matsuyama and Russell Knox at 15.21. I’m going with bets in three other groups.
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Eddie Pepperell/Kevin Chappell/Oliver Wilson
Match tees off at 07.19 BST
One of the first groups out onto the golf course sees the Qatar Masters champion Eddie Pepperell out alongside the former Dunhill Links winner Oliver Wilson and the American star Kevin Chappell in what is an interesting three ball.
Much has been made of Wilson winning the Dunhill Links and a case being made for him off the back of that but he hasn’t made the top 50 of a strokeplay links event since then so I’m putting that week down as a fluke rather than a form guide for here. I don’t think the high ball flight and typically American style of Kevin Chappell suits this form of golf either as evidenced by him yet to break the top 50 of this event and his record in the linksy US Opens have been poor too. That leaves Pepperell who won around a windy Qatar Masters track and was second at Gullane last week. Sky had him in their wonderful Open Zone on Wednesday and Pepperell was quick to stress he enjoys links golf. I think he’s the pick of this three ball.
Cameron Davis/Brandt Snedeker/Sam Locke
Match tees off at 11.36 BST
Brandt Snedeker is one of the standout players who are out around lunchtime and he goes out with the Australian player Cameron Davis and the Scottish amateur Sam Locke who will be living the dream this week.
Without meaning to dampen the achievements of Davis and Locke, Snedeker looks a cut above this pair and I’m expecting him to be far too good here. The American is good in the wind, he’s solid off the tee and he’s one of the best putters in the world when he’s on his game. He’s prepared well for this week and I expect him to show his worth by comfortably seeing off his playing partners here.
Bryson DeChambeau/Sergio Garcia/Shubhankar Sharma
Match tees off at 15.10 BST
One of the later groups out onto the golf course sees the former Masters champion Sergio Garcia, who has unfinished business with this course having lost in the playoff here in 2007. He is out alongside Bryson DeChambeau and Shubhankar Sharma.
They say you should beware the injured golfer but the fact that DeChambeau pulled out of his title defence at John Deere last week halfway through suggests to me that he is genuinely struggling. That rules him out while Sharma has gone right off the boil since that magical run of his around the turn of the year into February and March. That leaves Garcia who we know can tame this golf course. He’s the pick of the trio in these conditions and his run in France recently shows his game is in good order. All things being equal Garcia wins this three ball.
Tips
PLACED – Back T.Finau First Round Leader (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 67.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
PLACED – Back B.Stone First Round Leader (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Unibet (1/4 1-6)
Back him here:
Back B.Snedeker to beat C.Davis & S.Locke for a 5/10 stake at 1.73 with BetVictor
Back him here:
Back S.Garcia to beat B.DeChambeau & S.Sharma for a 4/10 stake at 2.00 with Betfair
Back him here:
Back E.Pepperell to beat K.Chappell & O.Wilson for a 4/10 stake at 2.15 with Betfred
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