The Final Series of the European Tour season are all Rolex Series events with the first of them coming this week in the form of the Turkish Airlines Open, an event held in luxury with a prize pool that will create plenty of that for the winner.
Justin Rose continued his purple patch in this tournament last year when he birdied the last to win. He is out to defend his title but some top quality players will be laying it down to him in what should be a good week.
Recent Winners
2017 – Justin Rose
2016 – Thorbjorn Olesen
2015 – Victor Dubuisson
2014 – Brooks Koepka
2013 – Victor Dubuisson
The Course
Although the Regnum Carya Golf and Spa Resort is only hosting the tournament for the third time, a look at the total roll of honour highlights the advantage that a bit of extra power can yield in this part of the world. This course is a par 71 which measures 7.159 yards so it isn’t long and can be played by the shorter hitters but with birdies very much the order of the day there is no denying that the further you get it out there off the tee the easier the course becomes.
The greens are huge here and there is very rarely little rough and even the trees that line the fairways are wide enough that it takes a really wayward shot to be in too much difficulty so this is a couple for the bombers. Generally though the best putters come to the fore so that is another thing to have in mind.
The Field
Ryder Cup heroes Justin Rose and Tommy Fleetwood headline the field this week while former champion and another part of that Ryder Cup success, Thorbjorn Olesen also tees it up this week. Former Ryder Cup man Thomas Pieters is also here looking to cap this season.
There are plenty of overseas stars teeing it up here too with Kiradech Aphibarnrat, Haotong Li and Lucas Herbert in the field while the winner of three tournaments this year – Matt Wallace – is also in the field. Recent winners Tom Lewis, Lucas Bjerregaard and Andrea Pavan also tee it up over the four days.
Market Leaders
Justin Rose is a predictable market leader as he looks to defend his title. He is 9/2 which is pretty skinny it has to be said with bookmakers taking no chances on the standout player in the field. Rose has had plenty of work in recent weeks having hosted the British Masters and then attempted to defend his title last week. I wonder if the petrol tank is close to emptying. If it is I wouldn’t want to be on at 9/2. There’s enough in the field to look elsewhere anyway.
Tommy Fleetwood is the 8/1 second favourite to win the title this week. He is definitely a man who is running out of gas as we saw in China last week where he couldn’t build on a decent first round and ended up finishing with one of the worse rounds of golf we’ve seen him play in a long time. Another time of year I’d be interested in the European number one but not now.
Thorbjorn Olesen was my idea of a potential winner of this tournament where it loomed on the horizon. His run in China last week did nothing to deter that and I still think he could win here but 12/1 is very much on the skinny side and I’m not really seeing a huge upside to his price so that is enough to make me look elsewhere despite respecting him strongly.
Haotong Li has the characteristics to get on well with this course and I’m guessing he will be popular at 20/1. He is running into form nicely although I hate taking short looking prices in these birdie fests as if you have a slow round you’re done and haven’t really got a run for your money. Shane Lowry is 22/1 and he can go well here off the back of a couple of solid efforts in Portugal and Spain recently. It is 25/1 bar.
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Main Bet
Usually I like to go with a couple of main bets but most of the players on my shortlist are pretty short such as Olesen, Li and Lowry but one player who is an acceptable price is a man I took here last year in Kiradech Aphibarnrat.
The Thai finished sixth on that occasion but he really caught my eye in China last week where in a very good field nobody putted better than him. Those greens were tough as well which bodes well for him on these things. This course suits him from tee to green so with the short stick looking like it is cooperating I think the Thai can have a real tilt at this title.
Outsiders
Instead I’ll add an outsider to my team this week and go with four of them. The first of those is Marcus Kinhult who according to the stats at least is going great guns with the short stick. He was fourth in a tournament similar to this in Portugal last month and showed what he has off the tee when he was in the top five in France earlier in the season. Kinhult is ranked 11 in the strokes gained putting stats on the European Tour this season which should make him pass others on the dancefloors this week. I’ll chance him for starters.
George Coetzee is another player who is a very good putter and in truth this course should be right up his street as well. His form since the spring hasn’t been the best he has ever had but he should always be a danger in these type of tournaments given his length off the tee and his ability on and around the greens. He was fifth here two years ago and I’m expecting him to emulate that at least here.
Sam Horsfield showed his class at the British Masters. His game is very much length off the tee and a lovely touch around the greens, much like most who grew up playing their golf in America, so it should come down to whether he is good enough to win here given that the course set up will suit him perfectly. Ian Poulter has championed him for a good while and he should be a decent enough judge. With that in mind I’m happy to pull the trigger at a big price.
A couple of weeks ago in Spain I landed a place at a monster price with Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano at the Andalucia Masters. Not many players were under par that week but one who was, according to the stats due to his putter, was Alvaro Quiros and I think he’s worth chancing at a monster price. Quiros is a missed cut machine in recent seasons but generally when he does make the cut he threatens the top of the leaderboard. There is no cut this week so I’ll pay to see how close he can go.
Tips
Back K.Aphibarnrat to win Turkish Airlines Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back M.Kinhult to win Turkish Airlines Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-6)
Back S.Horsfield to win Turkish Airlines Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-6)
Back A.Quiros to win Turkish Airlines Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 251.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-6)
Back them here:
Back G.Coetzee to win Turkish Airlines Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
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