The first round of the Turkish Airlines Open, the latest Rolex Series event, takes place on Thursday with the entire 78 man field on the golf course for the opening 18 holes of what could be a big tournament for many of them.
The first round is usually about jostling for position but with the freedom of knowing everyone is getting paid something this week players can relax and let their best golf come out. With that in mind we should see some special golf.
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First Round Leader
It is the European Tour’s turn to host a condensed field tournament this week and as we have seen on the PGA Tour in recent weeks the beauty of it is that only 2hr15 split the first group off and the last and that probably isn’t a big enough time gap for conditions to change too much.
With that in mind we can just look at the market and take someone at a price we think is acceptable. Matt Wallace was high up on my shortlist in the outright betting but his price there was probably about right. In truth 35/1 is only really about right in this market too but given his recent starts I think it is worth taking. His last three regular European Tour events he has sat T2, T1 and T1 after the opening 18 holes and on a course like this where a confident player should thrive I think the 35/1 on him leading after Thursday is impossible to ignore.
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Thursday 3 Balls
The other market for us to bet on over the first round is the three balls one. The 78 men have been split into 26 groups of three with each of those priced up for us to get stuck into. The Justin Rose, Tommy Fleetwood, Thorbjorn Olesen group is the one which will probably get the majority of the crowd and TV coverage but the Thomas Pieters, Matt Wallace and Kiradech Aphibarnrat group shouldn’t be too far behind.
Just 135 minutes separates the first group off and the last one so the action will be heavily condensed which is good from a betting point of view as we’ve not got bets tied up all day. There are two bets for me on the opening day card.
Tom Lewis/Lucas Herbert/Adrian Otaegui
Match tees off at 07.45 GMT
Tom Lewis will look to build on his win at the Portugal Masters when he goes out alongside the Belgium Knockout winner Adrian Otaegui and the rising Australian star Lucas Herbert in what should be a good three ball onto the course.
Although Otaegui has a good iron game he lacks the length of the other two so he can be dismissed relatively comfortably. That leaves it between the other two and I think expectation might get the better of Lewis early doors. He’ll fancy his chances of competing this week, and he might well do, but under the microscope since his win in Portugal we’ve not really seen the best of him in the opening stages. In fairness he didn’t start that well in Portugal with a 72. Herbert has not finished outside the top seven in his last three starts and that includes an opening 63 in Portugal. Earlier in the year he fired in a first round 66 in the Nordea so the Aussie pings the lids and can come out on top here.
Thomas Bjorn/Nicolas Colsaerts/Alexander Bjork
Match tees off at 08.05 GMT
The Ryder Cup captain Thomas Bjorn is in the field this week but I’m not sure we should expect a huge amount from him. He is out alongside the big bombing Nicolas Colsaerts and the China Open winner Alexander Bjork in the opening round.
I’m happy to pass Bjorn over here. Even if he was in good form he isn’t long enough to smash this course to pieces. I like Alexander Bjork but in recent weeks we’ve seen him very conservative off the tee which has led to plenty of long second shots. That might not get it done in a birdie fest even allowing for how good a putter he is. That leaves the path clear for Colsaerts who opened with a 68 on a similar track in Portugal recently and shot 64 in the first round here last year. A recent solid effort at a tough Dunhill Links shows his game is there and on a course like this which should bring out his best golf I think he’s the one to be on in this trio.
Tips
Back M.Wallace First Round Leader (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 36.00 with Betfred (1/4 1-5)
Back him here:
Back L.Herbert to beat T.Lewis & A.Otaegui for a 3/10 stake at 2.63 with SkyBet
WON – Back N.Colsaerts to beat T.Bjorn & A.Bjork for a 3/10 stake at 2.88 with Bet365
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