The first semi-final of the Champion of Champions tournament takes place on Friday evening and it is a repeat of the final from last year as Shaun Murphy goes up against Ronnie O’Sullivan in what could be a blockbuster of a contest.
Murphy came out on top in that final 12 months ago and he would love to continue his title defence into Sunday but O’Sullivan has never not made the final of this competition which makes this one a fascinating match.
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Shaun Murphy
The number one seed and defending champion looked in awesome form on Monday when he was playing his group but such is the standard of this tournament we now look back on it and he was probably the worst player of the four who made it through. That said, there wasn’t much Murphy did wrong and a repeat of his Monday snooker would certainly have him competitive in this semi-final at the very least.
Murphy is not daft. He will know what he needs to do to come through this semi-final. He will have to score incredibly heavy, he will need a fast start and most importantly of all he must believe that he can win the match. If he is beaten before he gets into the arena he will have no chance. He knows he can beat O’Sullivan though which could be important.
Ronnie O’Sullivan
If Murphy was good in his group, O’Sullivan was quite frankly insane. He faced two former world champions to make it to this stage and banged in six centuries in the 10 frames that he won. He won both his matches from behind too which suggests that the Rocket is bang up for the fight this week. To be fair he usually is when it comes to this tournament, hence his wonderful record in it.
One thing O’Sullivan will have to guard against is the comedown of beating a player of the stature of John Higgins in the last round. It has been three days since he did it so you wouldn’t think that would be a problem but you never truly know. All things being equal if O’Sullivan is close to the standard he set on Tuesday he is extremely likely to win this match.
Head to Head
This will be meeting number 18 between these two great players. Inevitably Ronnie O’Sullivan has had the better of their previous 17. He has won 12 of their past battles with Murphy coming out on top on four occasions. There has also been one draw. Since Murphy beat O’Sullivan in the final of this tournament last year, O’Sullivan has gained revenge beating Murphy in the UK Championship and Players Championship finals. Murphy didn’t really get close on either occasion.
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Betting
It is hard to see Ronnie O’Sullivan not winning this match based on the form he showed on Tuesday but you have to respect Murphy enough given how well he came through as well. A 2.5 frame handicap feels about right and while O’Sullivan might well cover it I don’t think there is as much wiggle room as I would like.
With that in mind, I’ll head to the break markets for a bet on the match. The 50+ break line is 7.5 which looks far too low. Murphy made seven 50s and a couple of tons on Monday and O’Sullivan made four 50s and six centuries on Tuesday. These two have met in four long course matches in the last 18 months. In the World Championship they played 20 frames and delivers 17 50+ breaks, in the final here last year there were 13 in 18 frames. There were 13 in 15 frames in the UK final and 12 in 14 in the Players final. The point being these two don’t play many frames without a 50 break so I’m going over on that line.
Tips
WON – Back Over 7.5 50+ breaks for a 4/10 stake at 1.80 with Betfair
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I think Murphy 1 or more and Ronnie 2 or more centuries at 9/2 with Skybet is good value.
Good shouts Alec. Scoring in this tournament has been fantastic!