We’ve covered the main outright market for the first major of the season so before The Masters gets underway there is still time to have a look at the various side markets that are on offer as we seek a bit more profit from the tournament long options.
As is the case with most of the big golf events these days, the majority of the nationalities on show have their own market and then there are a number of other quirky ones. Here is where we see the value lying across them.
Top Scandinavian
Five men from the region of Scandinavian have earned themselves a tee time this week Henrik Stenson is the leading candidate to progress the furthest from this part of the world but Thorbjorn Olesen, Alex Noren, Lucas Bjerregaard and Viktor Hovland.
Given the form of Olesen and Noren being pretty poor and this being Olesen’s first appearance in five years here I’m prepared to take them on. Noren has never made the cut here anyway and isn’t particularly well suited to this track given that he likes to fade the ball. Hovland is an amateur and out with the defending champion Reed so the occasion might well get the better of him which leaves two.
When you think that despite his standing in the game Stenson has only recorded one top 10 around here in 13 outings he can be taken on too. Bjerregaard should go well here because there is a lot of freedom off the tee and his aggressive iron play and solid short game should suit the place. There is every chance that something like a top 25 is enough to land the spoils here and the Dane is capable of achieving that even on debut.
Top Australian
Four players from Australia tee it up at Augusta National this week and that makes for a select and pretty competitive betting market on the region. Jason Day, Adam Scott, Cameron Smith and Marc Leishman are the men in question and when the favourite is a 15/8 poke in a four runner race you know it is a tricky heat.
Or is it? You never really know what Day is going to turn up and whether he’ll last the four days if he does turn up these days so parting with cash on him has long since been a daft idea. Cameron Smith has the credentials to go well around here but was pretty ordinary in the Match Play recently so I’m not so sure about him either.
I have this between Leishman and Scott and my preference is for the latter. He has won around here in the past and has four other top 10 finishes with a couple of top 20s mixed in and everything I read suggests he is right up for this tournament. To be fair Leishman has a couple of top 10s here too but I can’t ignore Scott’s ball striking around here and with his form in the big events good coming in he’s my call for the leading Aussie.
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Top 20 Finish
To be fair to the compilers there is insane value on the outright markets this week with 10 places being paid out by some but that is still no reason to ignore the top 20 finish market which can give us a go on those players who are a huge price in the outright market but who might not contend, but can still backdoor a good finish with a decent final round with an early tee time.
Corey Connors should be on something of a high having won the Texas Open to make it in here and to be fair to him he showed the qualities needed to go well here. He drove it well enough but was aggressive with his irons and holed some clutch putts over the course of the week, especially when he was in contention which bodes well. Connors missed the cut here as an amateur back in 2015 but he shot a second round 69 on that occasion so he can score around here. He’s out in the first group of the week so he’ll have perfect course conditions for his opening 18 holes. If he has enough in the tank after last week, and let’s be honest he should have as he’s free-rolling here now, he could push for a top 20.
Tips
DEAD HEAT – Back L.Bjerregaard Top Scandinavian for a 2/10 stake at 5.50 with Betway
Back A.Scott Top Australian for a 2/10 stake at 3.50 with Betfred
Back him here:
Back C.Connors Top 20 Finish for a 1/10 stake at 7.00 with William Hill
Back him here: