While the leading lights on the PGA Tour are away battling it out for the final major championship of the season, for those not lucky enough to be in Northern Ireland they will be competing for the Barbasol Championship title.
This may not be The Open but it carries many of the benefits that winning on the PGA Tour brings and in what is a wide open field someone is going to leave Kentucky feeling good about themselves at the end of the week.
Recent Winners
2018 – Troy Merritt
2017 – Grayson Murray
2016 – Aaron Baddeley
2015 – Scott Piercy
The Course
We are back at the Keene Trace Golf Club in Kentucky for the second time this year. The track remains untouched as a par 72 which measures 7,328 yards and as we saw last year a fairly low score is going to be required to win this tournament even allowing for the exceptionally large greens.
If we have a quick look back at last year those up towards the top of the leaderboard ranked high for greens in regulation or proximity to the hole for the week so that is the angle we should be going in with here. The course is expected to be soft so this could be very more of a second shot course this week.
The Field
Clearly this isn’t going to be the best field we’ve seen on the PGA Tour this season but there are one or two standout names in it who have fallen from grace to the extent they haven’t made it to Portrush. Jhonattan Vegas is very much one of those and he is in the field here, as is the defending champion Troy Merritt. Bill Haas is another big name who tees it up in this tournament.
Often we see the next generation of the PGA Tour teeing it up in this event but they have been having such a good year a lot of them are already playing in The Open. Martin Laird, Danny Lee, Jason Dufner, Harris English and Andres Romero are among the players who catch the eye and stand out in the field.
Market Leaders
Jhonattan Vegas is probably the best player in the field and he is the 22/1 favourite to win the tournament at the beginning of the week. This course and event should suit him nicely but there is a reason he is here and not in Northern Ireland and so taking a fallen star at this price, even in a field lacking depth and quality, probably isn’t the way to go long-term so I’m relatively happy to pass him over.
Troy Merritt is 25/1 to make a successful defence of his title this week. I’m never a fan of backing defending champions, as regular readers will know, but if a title holder is going to go under the radar and away from the spotlight it could be here given that the majority of the attention is on The Open. Merritt has shaped up nicely in recent times and ticks plenty of boxes, although price definitely isn’t one of them which sends me elsewhere. Martin Laird is the same price but his best form tends to come on the west coast which puts me off him.
J T Poston and Beau Hossler are 28/1 to win the tournament this week, which really does give an indication of how weak the field is. There is a win in Poston somewhere along the line. Whether it is here or not I’m not sure. Hossler has talent but seems to be a run of the mill sort of player these days so neither of these are particularly inspiring either. It is 30/1 bar those named.
Main Bets
Denny McCarthy had big things expected of him when he joined the PGA Tour this season and in terms of results he hasn’t really lived up to the hype but given that he is the leader in strokes gained putting on the PGA Tour this season he is going to burst through at some point soon. He only needs to tighten his iron play up a little to be a serious contender. In this lower key event against a less competitive field you would think this is the chance for him to deliver the goods. A couple of top 25s in the Rocket Mortgage Classic and the 3M Open suggests he is coming to the boil and at 33/1 in this weaker event this could be the time he strikes.
Adam Svensson has come to the fore over the last couple of weeks and based on the fact that he sits inside the top 15 in proximity to the hole on the entire PGA Tour, I would expect his good recent showings to continue. Only one of those above him in that discipline is in the field this week so that should be a key thing. Svensson has been in the top 20 in much deeper fields than this one over the last couple of weeks so as long as his petrol tank hasn’t reached empty he looks to tick all the boxes to go well at a decent price.
Outsiders
Joey Garber caught the eye in the 3M Open a couple of weeks ago when he finished with three successive 65s to record his second top 10 of the year, with the other one coming in the lower grade Puerto Rico Open and at 66/1 he could be a shade of value here. His statistics in Minnesota were fantastic and a repeat of that performance really shouldn’t have him too far away. He played last week at John Deere but that is a track renowned for needing a few spins so making the cut isn’t the worst achievement in the world there. You’ll have to search down the relevant stats to find Garber but that is only because of a poor start to the season. Prior to last week he had four top 30s in five events including finishing with a 66 in Canada. There’s talent in this kid and at 66/1 I’ll pay to see if this is his week.
I’m taking a massive leap of faith with my final bet for the week in that Kelly Kraft can find his best form because if he can he is way too good for this level and at 150/1 we could get handsomely rewarded. You don’t come seventh in the Genesis Open at Riviera if you can’t play this game and that was the outcome for Kraft there this season. He was fifth in the second grade Corales Championship earlier in the season so clearly he performs in the lower tier events especially given that he was third there last year too. He was second at the Greenbrier and in the top 10 in The Honda Classic last season too. This guy can play and while confidence must be low with seven missed cuts in 10 starts, it doesn’t take a lot to find that again. Sometimes you have to take the class in these lower quality events. Kraft is high up on that and I’ll pay to see if I’m rewarded for my faith.
Tips
Back D.McCarthy to win Barbasol Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back A.Svensson to win Barbasol Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back J.Garber to win Barbasol Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with 888sport (1/4 1-5)
Back him here:
PLACED – Back K.Kraft to win Barbasol Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
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