The Ashes is looming large on the horizon but before the series kicks off at Edgbaston on Thursday we have the chance to look at the many markets which cover the entirety of the five matches, as we hunt down profit making opportunities.
The first two we will look at is the ones for the batsmen with both countries having what looks like competitive top batsmen markets – competitive because there isn’t too much in the way of standout batters in the series. We’ll begin with England and then follow with Australia.
Top England Series Batsman
England captain Joe Root is the 2/1 favourite for this market and is shortening all the time with the news that he will bat at number three, something many judges, myself included, have been calling for over a lengthy period of time. I’m always reluctant to take captains in The Ashes though because the pressure and scrutiny on them is ridiculous and they are the men usually target by the opposition the most.
Jonny Bairstow is the second favourite but his red ball form looks to have disappeared completely. He made a pair of ducks against Ireland and a career batting average of 28.16 against Australia doesn’t inspire confidence. At 6/1 and 8/1 respectively you have to give Jason Roy and Rory Burns a look purely because you know that whenever England bat they will be at the crease and if a short chase takes place they might gain an advantage on the field. Burns is tempting at 8s but ultimately he has too many moving parts and isn’t a lock to play all five matches.
You can make cases for Joe Denly and Jos Buttler in the middle order but the former isn’t guaranteed to play the series with England stocked with middle order players. The latter might bat too low. Ben Stokes probably bats lower than ideal when I attack these markets but with three relatively new players to Test cricket above him I think it is worth going with him at 7/1.
He showed a huge maturity with the bat in the World Cup in some huge pressure situations and that bodes well here. He has an Ashes century at Perth and they don’t come along for English players too often. He also has a couple of 50s against the enemy and is batting as responsibly now as he has ever done. He has the technique to bat long periods and while others fluster and flounder around him I think the 7/1 on England’s man of the summer so far to continue his fairy tale year can lead to him top scoring in this series too.
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Top Australia Series Batsman
The market for the visitors batting line up is a little harder to predict with any certainty, because there are a lot of players who are relatively closely matched and then there is also a split between those who might have an advantage having spent the early stages of the summer playing county cricket and those who didn’t.
If you are going down the county cricket route then Cameron Bancroft and Marnus Labaschagne are the two for you and at 9/1 and 20/1 respectively you’ll be handsomely rewarded if one does top score. Ultimately, neither are guaranteed to start the series, or indeed play any part of it, while the former will be copping dogs abuse from the crowd. Matthew Wade is attractive at 33/1 based on his form in an A series over here but again, will he start with the captain being a keeper? I’m not sure he gets in purely as a batsman.
We definitely want to be on someone who is going to play all the matches barring injury and that leaves us with Dave Warner, Usman Khawaja and Steve Smith, and it is the latter for me. England bowl very well to left-handers so Warner and Khawaja could really struggle. For all his quality, Warner only averages 37 in England with a top score of 85 while Khawaja isn’t that good record wise.
Smith is going to get plenty of abuse but the simple fact is England can never get the bugger out. He plundered 687 runs in the series down under 18 months ago – more than 240 more than anyone else on his team and he averages a quite frankly ridiculous 56.27 against England which includes eight centuries in just 23 matches. It drops to 47.38 in England but he still has three tons here. He is England’s Achilles heel and I see no reason why he won’t top score for the Aussies for a third season in a row.
Tips
WON – Back B.Stokes Top England Series Batsman for a 2/10 stake at 8.00 with Bet365
WON – Back S.Smith Top Australia Series Batsman for a 4/10 stake at 2.88 with Betway
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