The BMW PGA Championship, the big tournament on the European Tour, begins on Thursday at Wentworth but before the first tee shot is hit there is just enough time to look into some of the side markets that are on offer for the event.
We’ve already placed six outright markets covering players from England, Asia, Italy, Austria and the Netherlands but there are a couple of other nationality markets we fancy a pick in and we’ll have a couple of goes at the top 20 market too.
Top American
Seven players from America are teeing it up this week with the market headed by the PGA Tour trio of Tony Finau, Patrick Reed and Billy Horschel, but I suspect there could be value to be had elsewhere. Finau doesn’t play much in Europe and the same can be said of Horschel although I do happen to think this course suits him but at the prices he doesn’t really interest me.
Kurt Kitayama has already won twice on the European Tour this season while Julian Suri and David Lipsky are both winners at this level too and none of those three should be discounted but I’m interested to see Andrew Putnam in the field as I believe he can have a decent enough week here. Putnam came across and played the Scottish Open where he finished fourth, where his iron play and putting came to the fore – both strengths needed this week, while at The Open a week later he was T12 after 54 holes before the tough conditions got the better of him. Conditions will be perfect for his game at Wentworth and at 5/1 I think he’s a decent punt to be the top American this week.
Top South African
There are a decent amount of South African players heading to Wentworth this week looking for a decent pay day and the chances that come with going well in an event of this nature. The market is headed up by the Scandinavian Invitation winner Erik van Rooyen with Branden Grace and the Qatar Masters champion Justin Harding behind him.
Grace looks an awful price to me for a man who hasn’t played anything like his best game for a year or more. I wouldn’t be surprised if Harding goes well, or the Andalucia Masters winner Christiaan Bezuidenhout while Dean Burmester is another one who is interesting with his driving ability off the tee. He was T12 here last year but I’m not convinced he’s good enough from 150 yards and in.
One man who certainly is however is Thomas Aiken. He has three top 10 finishes round here which isn’t a surprise with his accuracy off the tee and his quality into the greens. He is so good in the latter discipline that he ranks 20 in strokes gained on approach. He’s two better than that from tee to green. Aiken has been here enough to know how these greens work and at 20/1 he looks a big price to be the leading South African once again especially with three places on offer.
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Top 20
I’ll go with three players in the top 20 market. As ever we have to decide how to play this market. You can use it to extend the place terms on our outright bets or pick players down the field who you fancy for big weeks but not quite big enough to get them into the frame. It is always the latter for me in this particular heat.
The three men I’m interested in are no stranger to the top 20 round here. They are Lee Westwood, James Morrison and Ashley Chesters. Westwood was the last man off my shortlist for this tournament. He is ranked 10 on strokes gained tee-to-green on Tour this year and second in strokes gained on approach and those two things should have him go well enough here. If the short stick hots up for a couple of rounds he could be right in the mix. Amazingly Westy has never won round here but he’s been second twice and has eight more top 20 finishes. I think the 3/1 that he can add another here is too big to ignore.
At the bigger prices there is a lot to like about James Morrison again and while winning an event like this is beyond him at present he could easily go in during one of the lower level competitions between now and the end of the season. He should run well here though. He has a couple of top 20 finishes to his name on this track where third round scores of 75 and 81 denied him a chance of winning. We saw that emotional interview from him a few weeks back where the thing to take out of that was that he wants to play again. Since then he had three top 30 finishes where he was in the top five in fairways hit each week and then he was fourth at the KLM Open last week where he putted nicely. If he puts the lot together he’s a top 20 candidate.
We are at that time of the year where Chesters tends to play well. He is becoming synonymous with peaking at the end of the season to retain his card but the way the schedule has changed if he can do that this term he could be a very rich man with two Rolex Series events and the lucrative Dunhill Links to come between now and the final series. It should be no surprise then that Chesters has three top 20 finishes in his last five starts, including his last two. He has every chance of another here as his relentless straight tee-to-green game is perfect for this track. His form is such that I can’t ignore 7/1 on a top 20 finish.
Tips
Back A.Putnam Top American for a 2/10 stake at 6.00 with BetVictor
Back him here:
Back T.Aiken Top South African (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 21.00 with Betway (1/4 1-3)
Back him here:
Back L.Westwood Top 20 Finish for a 2/10 stake at 4.00 with Betfair
Back him here:
Back J.Morrison Top 20 Finish for a 1/10 stake at 7.00 with 888sport
Back him here:
Back A.Chesters Top 20 Finish for a 1/10 stake at 8.00 with Boylesports
Back him here:
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