The New Year might only be two days old on Thursday but that doesn’t stop the PGA Tour season from resuming, and it does so with the Sentry Tournament of Champions, an event which invites each champion from the Tour over the last 12 months.
Xander Schauffele got his 2019 off to the perfect start when winning here a year ago and he has accepted his invite back to attempt to defend his title. He will go up against 33 other men who lifted silverware last season.
Recent Winners
2019 – Xander Schauffele
2018 – Dustin Johnson
2017 – Justin Thomas
2016 – Jordan Spieth
2015 – Patrick Reed
2014 – Zach Johnson
2013 – Dustin Johnson
2012 – Steve Stricker
2011 – Jonathan Byrd
2010 – Geoff Ogilvy
The Course
As ever for this tournament we are on the Plantation Course at the Kapalua Resort out in Hawaii, where the scoring is expected to be low once again on the par 73 track, although there is a good deal of wind forecast on the second round which will negate that. The course has undergone some changes and it now measures 7,596 yards but it doesn’t play to that full yardage.
Among the changes to the course have been a repositioning of the 93 bunkers and a flattening of the greens which means that more of a premium on accuracy is required to deliver the goods around here. Rough is down to two inches but it is Bermuda grass now so lies could be a bit dodgy in them so the all-round test appears to be a little harder than it used to be here.
The Field
34 men have accepted their invites into the tournament and they include the defending champion Xander Schauffele. There is no Tiger Woods, Justin Rose, Brooks Koepka, Shane Lowry, Rory McIlroy, Phil Mickelson, C.T Pan or Francesco Molinari however. That leaves Justin Thomas and Dustin Johnson as the men headlining the field.
The former winner Patrick Reed has a tee time this week while the young guns of Collin Morikawa, Matthew Wolff and Joaquin Niemann are all here as well. Jon Rahm and Paul Casey head up the European charge while the likes of Patrick Cantlay, Rickie Fowler and the US Open champion Gary Woodland are among those from the American side of the pond who will be looking to show their worth in the opening week of the year.
Market Leaders
It is Jon Rahm who is the market leader this week at 9/2. We were never going to get a good price on the powerful Spaniard given his form to close out 2019, but even so this feels a little on the tight side. He has had two spins around here and finished 2-8 in those so the track doesn’t appear to be a problem. This is a decent enough field though and everyone comes in here without much golf in the last month so I can’t really be getting involved at that price.
Justin Thomas won around here in 2017 and has been third on another occasion as well so he probably justifies being 11/2 especially after a wonderful Presidents Cup where he showed many of the qualities that will be needed this week. It took him some time to find his form again in 2019 after his injury but he looks to be there now. He’s a big danger but once again the price isn’t really for me I have to say.
Dustin Johnson goes in as the third favourite and there is no doubt he is a course lover which will appeal to many at 8/1. He has twice won round here and is the leading money earner on this track but he was very quiet in the second half of 2019 and is working his way back from injury. He looked rusty at the Presidents Cup and that could be a big issue here. With that in mind, 8/1 is a little short for me money.
Xander Schauffele will begin his title defence as a 10/1 shot to retain the title. The biggest question I have over him is whether he is in as good form now as when he won the title. You would have to say 2019 was a little too quiet for someone of his talents. He offered up a solid Presidents Cup return which is encouraging for those interested in him and he is without doubt a big week player but the price is only about right, if a little skinny so he isn’t for me. It is 12/1 bar.
Main Bets
I’ll go with a couple of main bets this week with the first of them coming in the form of Rickie Fowler who looks to have all the tools required should this be a tougher scoring test. The first box he ticks which is a huge one is he is proficient in the wind. That is massive if the Friday forecast is anything to go by so it is good that he ticks that box. He has played here three times and he has been in the top six on all three occasions so the toughening of the track and the forecast brings him right into play. He had a good Presidents Cup and with this track suiting good putters Fowler looks a standout punt at 14/1.
The other main bet I like is Brendon Todd, the man who ended 2019 on fire with a couple of wins in successive weeks and very close to a third one. Interestingly those wins came in Bermuda and Mexico so he is a good traveller and the win in Bermuda showed he can play island golf nicely, which brings the quality in the wind that I’m looking for into play. This is not his debut although he hasn’t been here for a while, but on his previous spin he was in the top 10. Clearly he’s in better touch right now and with all departments of his game in good order, not least off the tee where he ranks in the top 15 in accuracy, he has all the traits needed to go well.
Outsiders
Given the forecast this week I can’t help but think Graeme McDowell could be worth a punt. I’m never shy in backing Gmac but given the 2019 he had I certainly have no problems getting involved in him here. Firstly the stronger the winds the better it will be as he is a machine in windy conditions, but also he is one of the best putters in the game. He won in the Dominican Republic in similar conditions to this when -18 was the winning score and was running hot in the US Open at Pebble Beach too. The changes to this track have brought accuracy a lot more into play without negating the need for being a good putter. That could see McDowell fend off less competent opponents and get right in the mix here.
I also can’t ignore a punt at Lanto Griffin at 125/1 either. He won in Houston earlier in the season where he showed his proficiency in the wind and his putter should have him in pretty good order. He sits just outside the top 10 in strokes gained putting but of those in this tournament he is actually third. When he came onto the tour there were concerns over his long game but while he hasn’t been special in that department, he has been more than competitive. There is enough in his early season form to believe he could be a sleeper at a triple figure price.
Tips
PLACED – Back R.Fowler to win Sentry Tournament of Champions (e/w) for a 2/10 stake at 15.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-5)
Back him here:
Back B.Todd to win Sentry Tournament of Champions (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-5)
Back G.McDowell to win Sentry Tournament of Champions (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Betway (1/5 1-5)
Back him here:
Back L.Griffin to win Sentry Tournament of Champions (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Coral (1/5 1-5)
Back him here:
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