It is night 10 of the Unibet PDC Home Tour on Sunday evening and after nine nights of good solid action, four more men will stream live from their homes battling to win the group for our excitement and entertainment.
As with Saturday night, we have another headline act showcasing his talents on Sunday, and as the standard continues to impress in this competition, there is a lot for the four men on show to live up to over the course of the evening.
The Format
Each night four players will battle it out in a round robin format with the group winner progressing to the next stage of the tournament. All six matches in each group will be the best of nine legs with two points awarded for a win. If players finish level on points then leg difference will decide the outcome. If that cannot separate players then the head to head will settle the group winner. Were three players to be tied on points and leg difference the player with the highest overall average goes through. The entire tournament is being streamed live on PDC.tv, the Sky Sports App and various bookmaker sites.
Saturday Recap
We got another reminder that this tournament is no respecter of rankings on Saturday night when Michael Smith bolted out of the competition. Although he was one of three players to win two of their matches, his leg difference did not match up well enough to that of Martijn Kleermaker with the Dutchman going through by that narrow margin. Matt Clark was the other man who registered a couple of victories but he was a leg short of topping the table. Harry Ward found nothing really.
It was an up and down night for us betting wise with the 180s we wanted in the opening match coming inside the first four legs but annoyingly the one match we really wanted Kleermaker to win was the only one he lost as he just couldn’t buy a double in the legs that really mattered. The other bet coming in safely meant there was only a small loss on the night but certainly gives us work to do on Sunday.
Group 10 Line Up
The former UK Open champion Nathan Aspinall headlines the tenth night of action in the competition. As with Jelle Klaasen a few nights he could have a real advantage over the other three men on show. He already has one in terms of his significantly higher ranking, but the other is that he took part in the same test event that the Dutchman did so he will know what this is all about. He would probably have been odds on to win the group anyway but that experience makes the 4/6 quotes look fair.
Ryan Joyce is the second highest ranked player in this field. He certainly merits respect as he has already made it to the last 16 of a Players Championship event this season, where his three victims were Kyle Anderson, Jose de Sousa and Gary Anderson. He also reached the quarter final of the World Championship in 2019 where Simon Whitlock and James Wade were among his victims so he can play this game and could represent value against Aspinall at 7/2.
Simon Stevenson is the third man in this group. He is what I call a plodder but that is probably unfair because he seems to qualify for a lot of the European Tour events and in turn the major tournaments. He was a quarter finalist at the UK Open last year beating Mark Webster, Raymond van Barneveld, Kim Huybrechts and Dave Chisnall along the way. He might lack the scoring power of one or two others in this competition but if he’s given a chance to win there is every possibility that he’ll take him. He’s 7/1 to win the group.
The last man into the draw is Steve Brown. He was one of the best players in the world a decade or so ago but has faded since then and focused his attentions on promoting the junior game to very good order. He got his Tour card back in January though and is starting out on another two year term as a professional. He has made the last 16 of a Players Championship event this season, beating James Wade along the way to get there so he also should be respected at around the 8/1 mark.
Special Offer
OPEN AN ACCOUNT WITH 888SPORT AND BET £10 TO GET £30 IN FREE BETS PLUS A £10 CASINO BONUS! PERFECT OFFER TO USE ON THIS TOURNAMENT! CLICK THE IMAGE BELOW TO JOIN. USE CODE 30F. NEW ACCOUNTS ONLY. 18+ T&Cs apply Gamble Aware.
Outright Betting
The night is all about Ryan Joyce for me. I think he’s the sleeper in the field. I get Nathan Aspinall is the main man and he has the experience of playing in one of the test events, but he didn’t exactly play well in that and scrambled over the line in it. I’m not convinced with kids and a family and things that he would have been pounding the practice board since then either. Even if he is you only have to look at Saturday night to see how precarious these things are.
I’m not sure either of Simon Stevenson or Steve Brown have the form or the scoring power to get in the mix here so it could be that the result of the match between Aspinall and Joyce determines the winner of the group so it makes more sense to back Joyce in the winner market than that match one because a) he’s a bigger price in it and b) there is a chance he could lose that and win the group if Aspinall does come unstuck elsewhere. Joyce could easily win all three matches here though and he’s my idea of the value outright.
Match Betting
I’m with Ryan Joyce in a couple of match bets as well, the first of which is in his opening match against Simon Stevenson. Amazingly, Stevenson doesn’t average close to one 180 a match on the pro tour this season. He is averaging a 180 every 0.08 legs which is effectively one in every 12 legs he plays so based on that there is half a chance he doesn’t hit a single 180 in this match. It isn’t like Stevenson has lost every match he has played either because he’s made the last 32 in two of the events. Joyce is a much heavier scorer averaging closer to a 180 every four legs, near enough three times the rate of Stevenson. The 5/4 on Joyce hitting the most 180s in this encounter is just too big based on their tour stats this season.
Whatever happens against Nathan Aspinall, if Ryan Joyce is to win the group he is going to have to beat Steve Brown in his final game of the night and the chances are he’s going to have to beat him well too. This is a Brown who isn’t averaging 90 on the tour this season and who is well known to have plenty of other interests away from the oche. It might be that his throwing arm is loose in this match but there is a significant gulf between the two men and I expect the improving Joyce to highlight that by coming out on top. Joyce has the throw in this match making his chances of winning 5-3 or better even more likely, especially when you consider Joyce stays on after playing Aspinall so should be into a nice groove.
Tips
Back R.Joyce to win Group 10 for a 2/10 stake at 4.50 with 888sport
Back him here:
Back R.Joyce Most 180s vs S.Stevenson for a 3/10 stake at 2.25 with Sky Bet
Back R.Joyce (-1.5 legs) to beat S.Brown for a 3/10 stake at 1.91 with Coral
Back him here:
Copyright secured by Digiprove © 2020
