The penultimate group of the opening round of the PDC Home Tour play-offs takes place on Monday evening and by the end of the night just one spot in the semi-final groups will be left to fill in this unique event designed to entertain us during lockdown.
We have seen a high quality throughout the play-offs so far and plenty of competitive action and with the end of the event looming large on the horizon, nothing is likely to change in that regard over the last few days of the tournament.
The Format
The 32 group winners from the first round of groups have been redrawn into eight groups for the second stage of the event. Each winner moves into one of two semi-final groups with the top two from those two groups progressing to form the Championship group which will take place on June 5 where the overall winner will be crowned. Each match from here on in is the best of 11 legs rather than the best of 9 of the first round. Two points are awarded for a win. If players finish level on points then leg difference will decide the outcome. If that cannot separate players then the head to head will settle the group winner. Were three players to be tied on points and leg difference the player with the highest overall average goes through. The entire tournament is being streamed live on PDC.tv, the Sky Sports App and various bookmaker sites.
Sunday Recap
It was another group in this competition that was dominated by Joe Cullen. We haven’t seen too many play-offs groups won with three wins but the Yorkshireman managed exactly that, confirming top spot by beating Jeff Smith in a winner-takes-all clash to end the night. Chris Dobey was left to enjoy just one win on his 30th birthday while there was nothing to show for his efforts for Martijn Kleermaker who couldn’t buy a double at any point of the night.
Missed doubles are becoming a pain in the backside across the various darts tournaments at the minute and we paid the price for a load more on Sunday night when Kleermaker missed seven match darts to see off Smith 6-4 and then got broken in the decider to leave us fruitless for our betting exertions on the evening. Hopefully our fortunes can improve from here on in.
Play-Offs Group 7 Line Up
Nathan Aspinall is the leading player in the penultimate group of the play-offs. The world number seven won all three matches in his first round group which was a good while ago. He wasn’t at his best but he got the job done. This group will take a lot more winning than that one did though so he is going to need to raise his game if he is going to come through and take his place in the semi-final. We know he has that in his locker though and having played in one of the test events for this event he has all the necessary online experience.
Jamie Hughes is the second highest ranked player toeing his home oche in this group. He has already won a European Tour event since joining the PDC last year and when he has completed a full two year circuit he’ll be ranked much higher than the mid-40s he is currently at. Hughes saw off the challenges of Darius Labanauskas, Krzysztof Ratajski and Toni Alcinas to come through to this stage. He faces much better opposition here but he’s a good match player and shouldn’t be dismissed lightly.
There weren’t many better performances in the opening round of the tournament than the one Jose de Sousa put in. He didn’t just win his three matches, he averaged well over 100 on the night and dropped just one leg across the evening. Joe Cullen averaged more in winning his first round group but that was his second effort, unlike de Sousa who was competing for the first time so for my money the Portuguese ‘Man O’ Scores’ delivered the best showing in the opening stage. The level of opponent goes up here but de Sousa is a class act and a huge danger to Aspinall.
The final man in the group is Jesus Noguera, a player who was one of the more surprising first round winners, not least because he had the likes of Ian White and Danny Noppert in his group. He beat White and by the time he had lost to Noppert he had long since had top spot confirmed. He could only average 82.16 for the evening though and that isn’t going to cut any weight at this level. You would expect an improvement to come naturally but he’s likely to have to put 15pts on that average in this company and that is difficult to envisage.
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Outright Betting
Nathan Aspinall is the favourite for this group but whether he is any value at odds on remains to be seen. We’ve seen countless odds on favourites fall by the wayside in this competition and if the former UK Open champion has a quiet spell at the wrong time that could be fatal for his chances here given the quality that he is up against. I can’t say I’m massively keen to take him on though I must admit.
In saying that, what we saw in the first round suggested that Jose de Sousa is the man to beat and given that he has the throw in his match against Aspinall, the 5/2 on him winning the group might well be worth taking. We saw the group on Sunday come down to a straight shootout in the last match and this one easily could too. That might well play into the hands of the Portuguese star so although I’m not completely writing Hughes off, I’ll side with de Sousa here.
Match Betting
This isn’t a group where a whole lot stands out to me I have to admit. I usually look for those matches where the player who has the throw in an even looking match is a bigger price than he should be and look to take advantage accordingly but I’m not sure I like anything in those games here. The one in question is the match between Jamie Hughes and Jose de Sousa where Hughes has the throw.
I’m pretty keen on de Sousa over the course of the evening though so I don’t really fancy Hughes in that one. That makes me look towards things like legs or 180s and nothing massively stands out in that regard either. Handicaps on players I expect to win either carry too big a line or are too short a price, neither of which are particularly ideal. There just isn’t anything that tempts me in particularly so I’ll stick with a bet on de Sousa to win the group as my only play in this one.
Tips
Back J.de Sousa to win Play-Offs Group 7 for a 2/10 stake at 3.50 with Betway
Back him here:
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