We find out the identity of the final group for the PDC Home Tour on Thursday night when four men take to their home oches once again to battle it out for a shot at the unique and hopefully only staging of this different event.
101 players began this competition more than a month ago and at the end of play on Thursday evening only four of them will remain, one of which will be crowned champion on Friday. There is a lot to play for and that should make for a great evening of darting entertainment.
The Format
The 32 group winners from the first round of groups have been redrawn into eight groups for the second stage of the event. Each winner moves into one of two semi-final groups with the top two from those two groups progressing to form the Championship group which will take place on June 5 where the overall winner will be crowned. Each match from here on in is the best of 11 legs rather than the best of 9 of the first round. Two points are awarded for a win. If players finish level on points then leg difference will decide the outcome. If that cannot separate players then the head to head will settle the group winner. Were three players to be tied on points and leg difference the player with the highest overall average goes through. The entire tournament is being streamed live on PDC.tv, the Sky Sports App and various bookmaker sites.
Wednesday Recap
It is now played three groups and won all nine matches in this tournament for Gary Anderson as the Scot continued to raise his level and walked away unbeaten for the night. He will be joined in the final group by Jelle Klaasen who overturned the form book to see off Dave Chisnall and Mike de Decker to make it through to Friday’s play. Chisnall finished his tournament with one win to his name while there was little to show for his semi-final efforts for Mike de Decker.
That meant that it was a losing night at the office for us from a betting perspective. To be fair it looked like our bet on de Decker to beat Klaasen was going to be a formality when the Belgian broke throw to lead 3-1. He was outscoring and outplaying the Dutchman at that point but Klaasen upped his game as de Decker faded with the former world champion winning the last five legs to win 6-3.
Last Eight Group 2 Line Up
The top seed from a ranking point of view in this second semi-final group is the former world champion Rob Cross. Cross has lived a charmed life to make it to this point, often relying on missed doubles and misfiring opponents to get through to this semi-final group but even though he doesn’t have to win the group to progress, he won’t get a lot of joy relying on misses from others here as the quality in this group is just way too strong. We know what Cross can deliver but he’ll need his best to come through here let along win the group.
Nathan Aspinall is the second highest ranked player in the section and when you think he is the world number seven you can see how strong this group is and how high in quality it is going to be. Aspinall hasn’t always played his best but in the matches he has been tested in he has found a strong enough game to make it through. If there is a concern it is that he doesn’t have a winning record against anyone in this so he is going to need to be at his best. If he is though he is more than good enough to make it through if not top the group.
Jonny Clayton has come through his two groups having won every match and he has got better as the competition has gone on. I’m always wary that Clayton can have mares on his doubles but there have been no signs of that at any stage in this tournament. He has scored as solidly and consistently as anyone in the tournament and might be suited best in that his second round group was as recently as Tuesday. If he plays here like he did in that he is going to take a lot of stopping over the course of the night.
Joe Cullen is a member of the top 16 but he is still the lowest ranked player in the group which goes to show just how strong this section is going to be. You would think this is going to be competitive throughout and if Cullen shows the form he has done since losing his opening group he could well be the qualifier from it. He produced the best darts we’ve seen at any stage in the event in coming through the first round and he certainly wasn’t shabby in getting rid of the likes of Chris Dobey and Jeff Smith in the second round. Cullen looks to be in the form to be a real danger here.
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Outright Betting
I said on Wednesday that I couldn’t get involved in the group winning for these semi-final groups and we largely saw why as although he didn’t jack it in, Jelle Klaasen was nowhere near as solid or consistent after having secured qualification as he was while achieving it. It is a no brainer to avoid that market but a few firms have priced up a ‘to qualify’ market where the two outsiders look the value. There are doubts over both Rob Cross and Nathan Aspinall from a form point of view and there is no arguing that so far Joe Cullen and Jonny Clayton have been the most impressive players in the event of the four on show here and the 13/10 on Clayton to qualify just looks and feels too big. He averaged over 100 in two of his three wins on Tuesday night and never needed to hit the heights against a misfiring opponent in the other game. Cross is yet to average 95 in a match in this tournament and Aspinall has only done it once. They both feel vulnerable to a relentlessly scoring Clayton who is finishing as well as I’ve seen too.
There hasn’t been a single match in this tournament where the four players involved here haven’t hit at least 180 and in most of them they have hit two or more apiece so the even money on there being three or more 180s in all six matches on the night just looks too big. There is the chance that if qualification is secured before the final two games that the air comes out of the balloon and we get some damp squibs but that happened on Wednesday and the final two matches both had three or more 180s in them. Not only do we have four consistent scorers on show here but we also have four closely matches players so I’m expecting a lot of close matches as a result, which will yield more legs to get the three maximums required in any one match. All four men will know the size of the task here and I expect to see their best. That even money looks far too big.
Match Betting
I’m going to take one in the match betting because it is that situation again where the player with the throw is just too big a price given the advantage that having that in a possible deciding leg brings. We have to wait until the final match of the night for it to come along, where Jonny Clayton takes on Rob Cross with the Welshman having the throw to end the evening, yet still he is strong odds against to win.
Given what we have seen from the two in the tournament so far I would have considered taking Clayton to win this one even if he didn’t have the throw but the fact he has it makes it a bit of a no brainer. Of the four men on show I like Cross’ chances of qualifying the least and I wouldn’t be surprised if he is already out by this point and fails to get up for the game. On a competitive night it is hard to see Clayton not needing something from this game. He has scored better than Cross throughout the event so as long as he doesn’t come the latest in a line of players who have missed doubles against the 2018 world champion I expect Clayton to win this.
Tips
WON – Back J.Clayton to qualify for a 3/10 stake at 2.30 with William Hill
Back him here:
Back 3 or more 180s in each match for a 3/10 stake at 2.00 with Sky Bet
WON – Back J.Clayton to beat R.Cross for a 3/10 stake at 2.25 with Bet365
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