We have had to wait a lot longer than we are used to doing but finally the first major of the year is upon us as the great and some of the not so good across the golfing fraternity head to San Francisco for the USPGA Championship.
Brooks Koepka is the man who will be looking to not just defend his crown, but to win the title for a third year in succession, which would be quite an achievement should he manage it. It goes without saying that the men opposing him are full of quality.
Recent Winners
2019 – Brooks Koepka
2018 – Brooks Koepka
2017 – Justin Thomas
2016 – Jimmy Walker
2015 – Jason Day
2014 – Rory McIlroy
2013 – Jason Dufner
2012 – Rory McIlroy
2011 – Keegan Bradley
2010 – Martin Kaymer
The Course
We are at TPC Harding Park this week. This course has hosted the 2005 WGC Cadillac, the 2009 Presidents Cup and the WGC Match Play in 2015. It played as a par 71 for all of those tournaments but it will be a par 70 this week. It measures 7,234 yards this year and with the rough said to be relevant, accuracy and strategy are two factors that could well determine who lands the opening major of the year.
Seven of the 12 par 4s measure more than 450 yards and a couple of the others are drivable so having length in your armoury is definitely not a bad thing, especially if straightness comes with it. This course is relatively flat and everything is in front of the player so there can be no bad luck stories when it comes to dodgy lies or awkward stances. This is going to be just a tough, solid test of golf where the winning score should be in the mid to low teens. Historically putting hasn’t been as important as ball striking.
The Field
With this being a major championship it really does go without saying that the field is of a top quality. They do let former champions and PGA professionals into the field though so it isn’t a complete stellar line up, but the majority of anyone who is anyone is here and that includes the great Tiger Woods, a winner round here in 2005 but who hasn’t won this title since 2007, which is a pretty incredible record by his standards.
New world number one Justin Thomas will look to back up his WGC St Jude win by winning this title for a second time, while Brooks Koepka is here to win a third title. The likes of Jon Rahm, Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy and Bryson DeChambeau, all in high positions in the world rankings, are all here this week as are rising stars Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Patrick Cantlay and Daniel Berger. Tommy Fleetwood, Tyrrell Hatton, Matthew Fitzpatrick and Justin Rose head up a sizeable English contingent while the likes of Hideki Matsuyama, Jason Day, Sungjae Im and Abraham Ancer will want to claim the title for the Internationals.
Market Leaders
We have joint favourites this week in the form of the two men who battled out the finale in Memphis last week in Justin Thomas and Brooks Koepka. Both men are 10/1 to win here and the case for each is a pretty easy one to make. I must admit I didn’t like a lot of what Thomas produced when in front last week and I’ve had that concern about him for a while which puts me off backing him. Koepka’s return to form last week was welcome for his fans but his rough stuff when in contention is a bit of a turn off from a punting perspective. I wouldn’t be surprised if either won but there might be too many holes in them for my liking.
Rory McIlroy won the WGC Match Play on this track in 2015 so he’ll have good memories coming here which could make him dangerous as a 14/1 shot, although you’d be taking a huge leap of faith in backing him as his form without the crowds since the restart has been terrible. That certainly isn’t the case for Jon Rahm who won a few weeks ago in The Memorial. He didn’t have his best stuff with him at Southwind last week but it might be a little too soon to write him off on the back of one poor effort, his first and currently only tournament as world number one.
Bryson DeChambeau doesn’t get much of a positive press these days and after his ridiculous search for a free drop last week it isn’t hard to see why, but his new found power could be an advantage this week as you can get after this course with a driver. Yes it will help if it goes straight but banging it down there is certainly one way of taming this course so at 16/1 he’ll be popular. He’s just gone quiet in the top fields since he won the Rocket Mortgage Classic though so he’s an ounce short to me.
Xander Schauffele will be popular this week with his recent record in big events and the way he finished in Memphis last week. He is 18/1 to win the tournament and when you think he was right in the mix at Carnoustie a couple of years ago, has three top 10s in the last three US Opens and was second at The Masters last year, his big tournament CV is really strong. I’d say he is probably only a fair price now though and while I certainly wouldn’t be surprised if he wins there is little value left in him in my eyes.
Main Bets
As it is a major and we had a winner last week I’ll go with three main bets here, the first of which is the man who launched this run of winners we have had recently in Collin Morikawa. If this was any of the other majors I probably wouldn’t have taken the Workday Charity Open winner but this tournament sets up a lot like a regular PGA Tour event. The big thing about Morikawa this week it the course is right in the heart of where he went to college so he has played plenty of rounds at TPC Harding Park. There aren’t many in the field who have that going for them. His long game was fantastic in Memphis last week. That doesn’t surprise us, he is one of the best iron players in the game and that won’t be insignificant this week. What really caught my eye at the WGC was the level of his putting the longer the tournament went on. That contributed to a seven under weekend which was four better than eventual runner up Brooks Koepka. Morikawa is already a star but this week could launch him further into stardom.
I always think if Jason Day is going to win majors it will be here or Augusta because his driving is not the strongest part of his game. I have read a lot about how the rough is not going to be as penal as in some American majors and that should play nicely to the strengths of the 2015 winner who is beginning to trend into a nice groove. He made the news for his split with his long time coach last week but what seems to have gone unnoticed is that he has caught fire in the last few weeks. His last three results have been T7-T4-T6 and with the bag beginning to cooperate not least a putter that hasn’t played ball for a while there are reasons for the Australian to be optimistic again. Day likes the Californian climate having twice won at Torrey Pines among others. He looks a big price in his present form.
I don’t know whether the WGC Match Play from 2015 has any significant at all but if it does Gary Woodland is likely to be excited about his chances. The 2019 US Open champion won his only major title in California at Pebble Beach so this part of the world holds good memories for him and he can land another one here. He wasn’t fantastic in Memphis last week but he wasn’t terrible either. Prior to that he was T5 at the Workday Charity Open despite a 73 in the opening round and he was bang there the following week at The Memorial at halfway before those insanely tough conditions got him over the weekend. Woodland has good memories of this golf course, is a solid driver and his short game is much improved. He’s entitled to believe he’s in for a big week here.
Outsiders
I’ll go with three outsiders this week too, two of them are English players who I think can steal some limelight. It is well-known that Matt Wallace prepares himself for the big tournaments and the toughest the test the more he seems to relish it these days, especially in America. Last year he had a top 20 at The Honda Classic, was T3 in this at Bethpage Black where he was one of just six players to finish the week under par and then T12 in the US Open at Pebble Beach. This year he has a top 25 at Bay Hill and was tied for fourth on that chronically tough Sunday at Muirfield Village a couple of weeks ago. Wallace has a solid all-round game and hit all but two greens in regulation at TPC Southwind last Sunday. If that long game makes it to San Francisco with him he could be overpriced this week.
Danny Willett is a player who has been on my radar for a few weeks now. I took him in The Memorial and I quietly fancied my chances when he went out in the final three groups on the Sunday but he was one of many who got done up by the insanely tough conditions that day. I’m not going to hold that against him but I’ll play him again this week. He is one who has good memories of TPC Harding Park having finished third here in the WGC Match Play in 2015 and made reference to that in an interview that I read earlier in the week. Willett is another who plays well in the big events and I fancy he is overpriced for a big week here.
Finally I want a big driver in my team this week and so I’ll have a go on Cameron Champ, a man who only the beefed up Bryson DeChambeau heads in driving distance on the entire PGA Tour. Champ is near enough 10 times the price of DeChambeau and while his overall game is nowhere near as good as that of the science minded American, he does have a win on the west coast at the Safeway Open at the start of this season and he has three top 25 finishes since the restart, including last week where his last three rounds were in the 60s on a tough enough golf course. I’m not going to worry too much about his poor weeks at Muirfield Village as that doesn’t play to his strengths at all. This place might well do though and at 150/1 I’ll pay to see how close he goes.
Tips
WON – Back C.Morikawa to win USPGA Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 36.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-9)
PLACED – Back J.Day to win USPGA Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-9)
Back M.Wallace to win USPGA Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-9)
Back them here:
Back G.Woodland to win USPGA Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Bet365 (1/5 1-8)
Back C.Champ to win USPGA Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Bet365 (1/5 1-8)
Back D.Willett to win USPGA Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 111.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-9)
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