The European Tour remains in exactly the same place this week as the Twenty Ten course at Celtic Manor is in use for the second time in as many weeks. Having hosted a very successful Celtic Classic last week, it is time for the more prestigious Wales Open which begins on Thursday.
Sam Horsfield won the Celtic Classic and he is in the field this week looking to do a quick Welsh double but as expected the field he is up against for this tournament is stronger in depth and quality than the one he beat.
Recent Winners
2014 – Joost Luiten
2013 – Gregory Bourdy
2012 – Thongchai Jaidee
2011 – Alex Noren
2010 – Graeme McDowell
2009 – Jeppe Huldahl
2008 – Scott Strange
2007 – Richard Sterne
2006 – Robert Karlsson
2005 – Miguel Angel Jimenez
The Course
The course is exactly the same as it was last week. Unlike over in America when Muirfield Village recently staged tournaments in successive weeks and changed the setup from one week to the other, that is not the case here. The course will be setup exactly the same so it is a par 71 which stretches out to 7,315 yards and it will play that full yardage because there is significant rain expected on the eve of the tournament, three days after plenty of rain fell during the final round of the Celtic Classic.
We saw bigger hitters come to the fore in the main last week and it would be no surprise to see the bigger hitters up on the leaderboard this week. We saw the need for a short game in the Celtic Classic with the run off areas on these greens pretty significant. It is never a bad thing to have someone who can get the putter hot either so an all-round game is good but I think the premium needs to be on distance.
The Field
There is absolutely no doubt that this is a stronger field than last week. That was to be expected with it being a more prestigious event and with the first major well behind us. The PGA Tour event is restricted to the top 125 runners too so those who didn’t fall into that category would have to come here to have a tournament to play in. That means we get to see the likes of Robert MacIntyre, Haotong Li and Mikko Korhonen among others.
The winner last week Sam Horsfield tees it up for what would be a third title in the space of four weeks while Belgian bomber Thomas Pieters is back for another crack having been deeply involved for a couple of rounds last week. We also get to see the likes of Eddie Pepperell, the first winner on the UK Swing in Renato Paratore, Andrew Johnston, Jordan Smith and Gavin Green among others in what should be a decent week.
Market Leaders
Despite Sam Horsfield winning last week it is Thomas Pieters who is the 11/1 favourite to come out on top here. He was going well at halfway in the Celtic Classic but faded a little over the weekend but if those four rounds blew away the rust then he is entitled to be the man to beat around here, especially with four rounds on the course under his belt. My only concern about Pieters is that he doesn’t win nearly as often as a man of his undoubted talent should do with the tools he has available.
Sam Horsfield is the 12/1 second favourite to win this week. You would have to say he won pretty well last week so it is hard to go against him too much here it must be said. The only thing that would concern me is it takes a lot of mental energy to win, which could be detrimental It isn’t as though he cruised home last week, he had to play right up to the final hole. If he is mentally fresh enough there is no reason why he can’t go in again but that is reflected in the price.
Robert MacIntyre is an 18/1 shot to win a first European Tour title on his return to action this side of the pond. To be fair to the Scot, he put up a couple of creditable performances in the WGC and the USPGA at the beginning of the month and on those efforts he is entitled to be right there. You wouldn’t call him a long hitter though and that is a concern, as is the fact that he hasn’t broken his duck at this level. He’s pretty easy to leave alone.
The Asian star Haotong Li is the only other player in the field who is 20/1 or shorter. He is exactly 20/1 to win the tournament and when you think it was only a couple of weeks ago that he shot clear of the field at the halfway mark in the USPGA Championship in San Francisco, that price would appear very fair now that he is back in much weaker company. He’ll have had plenty of time to get over the jetlag as well. It is 22/1 bar.
Main Bets
While there is a concern that Haotong Li hasn’t played in Europe for a while, I think he has a wonderful chance here. Although he has been competing in America he has been mixing it with a much stronger grade than what he is up against here it has to be said. Not only has he been mixing with that company but he was leading the USPGA after two rounds and we infamously saw him working very hard on his game throughout that tournament. He never disgraced himself in the final two rounds of that event and although this will be his first look at Celtic Manor, he has a top 10 on a similar track at Le Golf National so I’m confident he’ll take to it. The Chinese star looks to be hitting the ball well and if the form of the PGA is with him here he could just lead this lot trailing in his wake.
Gavin Green took a few rounds to get going on this UK Swing but he came to the party in a big way in the final round here on Sunday when he closed the show with a 63. The volume of rain in this part of the world is only going to bring his length further to the forefront and give him a big advantage. The Malaysian star has been in good form without winning this year. He has had top 20s in four of his last five starts either side of lockdown including a third placed finish in Saudi Arabia against a much stronger field than this. Although his start to the UK Swing was quiet, all six rounds he has played have been under par culminating in that 63 on Sunday. The longer this course plays the better it will be. Green looks to be a huge chance.
Outsiders
Adrian Meronk has been making solid strides during this UK Swing and he would be ready to deliver another big showing here. He was just outside the top 20 in the British Masters, put up a creditable effort in an insanely low scoring week at Hanbury Manor and then finished T6 here last week which would have been a lot closer but for a crazy couple of holes just after the turn in the second round. Meronk won on the Challenge Tour at a resort course in Portugal last season and that is now how this course is set up so it probably shouldn’t have been a surprise that he went well last week. The Pole got it out there off the tee and putted wonderfully and having had a spin round here might be even better for the experience. He looks a decent price to me.
Nobody has been longer off the tee on the European Tour over the last couple of years than Min Woo Lee, and given that the Australian has already won an event this season and this course is sure to play long this week, it stands to reason that he could be involved at a big price. Although he wasn’t at his best here last week, the week before he was safely inside the top 10 at the English Championship and now that he has experience of this track we might see him fare a lot better, especially when the conditions bring much more out of his length. The Australian started the season brilliantly, culminating in that win in the Vic Open and it wouldn’t take a whole lot for him to really get himself into contention here.
Tips
Back H.Li to win Wales Open (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 21.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back M.Woo Lee to win Wales Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with 888sport (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back G.Green to win Wales Open (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 23.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-6)
Back A.Meronk to win Wales Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-6)
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