The PGA Tour heads to mainland America this week after a fortnight out in Hawaii as the West Coast Swing begins with The American Express, a tournament often renowned for bringing the stars of stage, screen and sport to the golf course in a pro-am environment but Covid-19 has seen that part of the event scrapped and this is now a straightforward 72-hole golf tournament.
Andrew Landry enjoyed himself in the desert 12 months ago when he held off the chasing pack to win the title but his defence of the crown will be very different as it will take place on two of the courses rather than the usual three.
Recent Winners
2020 – Andrew Landry
2019 – Adam Long
2018 – Jon Rahm
2017 – Hudson Swafford
2016 – Jason Dufner
2015 – Bill Haas
2014 – Patrick Reed
2013 – Brian Gay
2012 – Mark Wilson
2011 – Jhonattan Vegas
The Courses
We usually have three courses in play in this tournament but due to the restrictions in place for Covid-19 the La Quinta track bites the dust this year, leaving us with the Nicklaus Tournament Course and the Stadium Course at PGA West. Each player in the field plays the two courses once over the first two rounds while those who survive the cut will play the Stadium Course for the final 36 holes over the weekend.
Both the courses are par 72s with the Nicklaus Tournament Course slightly the longer of the two at 7,181 yards to the 7,147 yards of the Stadium Course. When you factor in the desert air making the ball fly further and the firm courses they play to nothing like those yards. The layout of the tournament might have changed but the requirements for winning hasn’t. You need to hit a lot of greens and hole a lot of putts and score heavily.
The Field
Considering there is a big money event over in Europe this week the field here has been affected but it is still pretty competitive. Jon Rahm was due to headline the field here but he has withdrawn which leaves the two Patricks – Reed and Cantlay as the main men with a tee time. Andrew Landry is here as the defending champion and there are a number of former winners in the field not least Adam Long, Hudson Swafford and Brian Gay among others.
Brooks Koepka, Rickie Fowler, Tony Finau and Matthew Wolff are some of the household home names who are teeing it up this week while the quality international pairing of Sungjae Im and Abraham Ancer are also here while Scottie Scheffler, Russell Henley and Cameron Champ are also in the field. There is also a tee time for the man who took down the Sony Open last week in Kevin Na. Paul Casey heads up a weak European challenge this week.
Market Leaders
After the withdrawal of Jon Rahm we are left with Patrick Cantlay as the 14/1 favourite to win the tournament this week. You would probably say he is the best player in the field right now with Brooks Koepka still finding his best game after his injuries but the way Cantlay baulked at the winning line in the Tournament of Champions a couple of weeks ago doesn’t make me want to go out and rush into backing him as a favourite here.
We have joint second favourites this week in the form of the American pair of Scottie Scheffler and Patrick Reed. Scheffler is clearly a huge talent but I’ve no interest in taking him at 16/1 until he actually gets over the line in a tournament. Reed didn’t really live up to expectations in the Tournament of Champions but I did see somewhere that he attributed that to shin splints so he probably deserves another chance. There might be an ounce of value in him at 16/1 but not much more than that.
There are a trio of players who begin the week as a 20/1 shot to win the tournament. They are Tony Finau, Brooks Koepka and Sungjae Im. Regular readers will know that I’m no fan of backing players who don’t win at skinny prices so that rules Tony Finau out while Koepka is searching for his best form and a shootout like this doesn’t really play to his strengths. He also has new bats in the bag this week so he’s pretty easy to turn over. I like Im but I prefer him on the tougher courses to these shootouts. It is 25/1 bar.
Main Bet
Given the outsiders have a good record in this tournament I’ll save much of my powder for those but there is one bet I like which comes in the form of the Canadian star Adam Hadwin. Admittedly the confidence would have been even higher than it is if he had finished 2020 well rather than the indifferent form he was in but he wouldn’t be the first golfer to go into a tournament he enjoys in a poor run and then find his best stuff and discover his confidence again.
Hadwin wasn’t here last year but in the four years prior to that he has finished in the top six on each occasion. This tournament usually attracts one or two more star names than it has got in it this year which might ease the difficulty of winning a little bit. Hadwin when he is on song is pretty decent with his irons and he is one of the better putters on the PGA Tour. He’s a big price given his record around here and forms my one main bet this week.
Outsiders
I’ll throw darts at four mid-range outsiders this week with the first of those being a man who didn’t win the Sony Open last week but who might have thought he did. Chris Kirk needed a very high finish in his last event with a medical exemption to keep his card and that is exactly what he got and delivering under that sort of pressure should give him a lot of confidence. There is the chance that there will be a bit of an emotional comedown from that but he still needs to crack on if he is going to keep his card and get back to where he was back in 2014 when he was competing at the business end of the season. Kirk seems over all his injury struggles and this tournament should suit him nicely. His iron play last week was very good and at his best he is one of the better putters around. I think he’ll go close here.
Brendan Steele is another of interest to me this week. He also went well at the Sony Open and tends to perform his best golf on the West Coast so last week was very encouraging. He is sneakily going under the radar with regards to his putting and that is important because his long game is pretty good, especially on tracks where there isn’t so much demand on him off the tee like these courses. He doesn’t have the best record here but he arrives in great form and after a near miss last week I think he can catapult himself into the mix and maybe snatch the title to make up for it.
The third outsider I like is Cameron Tringale. We have to take his sharpness on merit but in his last solo event he had a top three finish at the RSM Classic and that was encouraging. He should go very well here because one of the reasons for his upturn in form has been his putting. He is in the top 20 for strokes gained putting and improved into the top 10 in total putting so in a low scoring event he ticks a huge box. Tringale doesn’t have the best record in this tournament but you either like the pro-am nature of this or you don’t so it might be that this being just a golf competition helps him. Tringale sits in the top 15 in the birdie average which is another important thing this week so I expect him to go well.
Finally I’ll continue to ride the Peter Malnati train. I’m convinced there is a win in him in the not too distant future so while I’m still getting three figures on him it makes sense to keep backing him. Malnati has a lot going for him this week with him sitting second in the par 4 scoring statistic which is often a key to this event, as well as tenth in the birdie average. He is also second in the strokes gained putting statistic and eighth in total putting. He ticks a lot of boxes going into this tournament and comes here off the back of a decent tune up at the Sony Open last week where he was right there after 54 holes but couldn’t get anything going in the final round. He has a couple of top fives this season and I’m expecting big things again this week.
Tips
Back A.Hadwin to win The American Express (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 61.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back B.Steele to win The American Express (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
Back C.Kirk to win The American Express (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 71.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back C.Tringale to win The American Express (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
Back P.Malnati to win The American Express (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
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