2021 Waste Management Phoenix Open Golf – Tournament Outright Tips and Betting Preview

It is Super Bowl weekend in the States which means the PGA Tour heads to Arizona for the Waste Management Phoenix Open, staged at the iconic TPC Scottsdale, an event which is usually the most attended in golf and has the loudest hole in the sport, although that will have to wait until next year as only 5,000 are allowed through the door per day this year due to Covid-19.

Webb Simpson head off Tony Finau in a playoff to become the winner of the tournament 12 months ago and he is back looking to retain the title, but as always in this event a top quality field has been put together to take him on, with many capable of winning this.

Recent Winners

2020 – Webb Simpson

2019 – Rickie Fowler

2018 – Gary Woodland

2017 – Hideki Matsuyama

2016 – Hideki Matsuyama

2015 – Brooks Koepka

2014 – Kevin Stadler

2013 – Phil Mickelson

2012 – Kyle Stanley

2011 – Mark Wilson

The Course

All golf fans will know all about TPC Scottsdale and plenty who aren’t big supporters of the sport will do too with the famous 16th hole. This isn’t a long course by any stretch of the imagination. It is a par 71 but it only measures 7,261 yards which with the dry desert air makes it a relatively short course. There was a redesign of the track in 2015 and since then it has been the longer hitters who’ve held sway in the main.

Although there isn’t a huge challenge off the tee here you do need to drive the ball well because the desert areas aren’t fun but generally this is a test of approach into the large greens and then putting on them. Since the refurb only top drawer winners have been produced so this might not be an event for the rookies or those not accustomed with winning.

The Field

Some big appearance money has sent a lot of leading players off to Saudi Arabia this week but the lure of this tournament has still got some stars of the game to Phoenix. Jon Rahm heads up the field but from a home standpoint, the likes of Justin Thomas, Webb Simpson, Rickie Fowler and Xander Schauffele are all pretty big names who’ll be looking to secure what is becoming a coveted title at this time of the year.

Hideki Matsuyama is twice a winner here and will be wanting to extend that record with a good week while other top drawer players with a tee time include Rory McIlroy, Gary Woodland, Bubba Watson and Matt Kuchar. Daniel Berger, Sungjae Im, Ryan Palmer Brooks Koepka and Harris English are some of the other notables in the field while the internationals such as Louis Oosthuizen and Si Woo Kim will be out to land a blow here.

Market Leaders

Jon Rahm heads into the tournament as the favourite to win it but whether there is much in the way of value in his 13/2 price remains to be seen. He was there or thereabouts without winning at Torrey Pines last week and although that spin will have blown off any cobwebs, he just feels a little on the short side to me here. I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes in but this field feels stronger than a 13/2 favourite so the Spaniard isn’t quite for me here.

Justin Thomas comes in as the second favourite and that is perfectly understandable given that he is one of the best players in the world and has been in the top three for the last two years here. He is 8/1 to win the tournament and having done everything but win this year you wouldn’t be surprised if he gets over the line here. I’d prefer Thomas to Rahm but I’m really not that keen on taking a single figure price this week.

Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele will both tee it up as 11/1 shots this week. That is perfectly understandable too. McIlroy looks in decent touch but he let the Abu Dhabi Championship get away from him a couple of weeks ago and then a good first round position at Torrey Pines went west last week which puts me off backing him. Schauffele finished second behind Patrick Reed last week but that was a home game for him. His record here is solid without being spectacular and I’d like better if I was to get on him.

Webb Simpson is a 16/1 poke to retain his title. Regular readers will know I’m not a backer of defending champions and that isn’t changing here, although to be fair to Simpson his record here is immaculate and had he not been as far back as he was after the first round last year he would have won by even further. That said it is incredibly hard to defend a title, especially against a field of this strength so although his price is fairer than those above him in the betting he isn’t for me.

Main Bets

I’ll go with a couple of main bets this week with the first of those being a Sungjae Im who is ticking into winning form once again. It was only a few weeks on from now last year when he won The Honda Classic and it feels like he is rounding into that form again. Already this year Im has a top five to his name at the Tournament of Champions and he went well in The American Express. I’m not too fussed about his poor effort last week as Torrey Pines is a real monster of a track. Im ticks every box here. He is aggressive and classy with his irons and he is beginning to putt very nicely. He should be shorter than 33/1 I believe so I’ll take him here.

Ryan Palmer has been on my radar for a few weeks and having been in the last couple off the shortlist last week when I watched on as he finished second I have to get on him this week. That was actually his second top four finish in 2021 so he is in fantastic touch heading to TPC Scottsdale where he has twice been a runner up. When Palmer is in good order the game looks pretty easy for him and after chasing Reed last week I think he could be primed to get in the winning circle himself here. He has the ideal game for the desert and I’m expecting big things from him over these four days.

Outsiders

I’ll play a couple of West Coast specialists with my first two outside bets. I backed both over the last two weeks with Brendan Steele the first of those. I always think he is worth playing at this time of the year and his fourth at the Sony Open and then 21^st at The American Express further highlights that as the case. Steele is very good from tee to green and tends to putt these greens well with four top 10s around here in the last decade. I think there is more juice in Steele than his price suggests and at 80/1 I’m happy to pay to see how he goes this week.

Martin Laird was a pick of mine at Torrey Pines last week but the wind on the Friday caught him out a little bit. That won’t happen here so I’m prepared to chance him again. Like Steele, Laird has a great tee to green game and you generally find he goes well at the same places as he doesn’t have massive length. One of the places he runs hot at when he is in form is here as he has four top 10s in the last decade around here and he comes here this year as a tournament winner in fairly recent times. That alone makes him a big price here but throw in the rest of it and he’s in a great position to go well.

Russell Knox is another player who has gone pretty well here in the last few years and there were enough signs from him in The American Express to suggest he might be coming back to form ahead of a week where the course will certainly allow him to contend. Knox when he is on it is very good with the irons which you have to be around here and he is another who tends to putt well at the same places, here being one of those venues. He’s quite an understated type so the absence of a load of screaming fans might not be a bad thing for him here and at the prices I’m willing to pay to see how well he goes too.

Tips

Back S.Im to win Waste Management Phoenix Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)

Back R.Palmer to win Waste Management Phoenix Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 46.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)

Back B.Steele to win Waste Management Phoenix Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)

Back them here:

Back R.Knox to win Waste Management Phoenix Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-8)

Back him here:

Back M.Laird to win Waste Management Phoenix Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)