The first round of The Players Championship takes place at TPC Sawgrass on Thursday as the players taking part in the competition get to see the famous course from a competitive stance for the first time in what is set up to be a special week.
This marks the day that the sport stopped last year so there will be a bit of poignancy to it but in the main we should be in for quite some day of golf on one of the best but most brutal golf courses used on the PGA Tour.
First Round Leader
As ever in big events like this the first market we look at is the one for the first round leader. Whenever we do this the first things we explore is the format and the weather forecast. The format is that players go off the first and the tenth tees in a morning and afternoon wave which makes the forecast relevant. There isn’t much of a change in that throughout the day although the wind does pick up in the afternoon so it might be that the morning is the time to get on the course and post a score.
With that in mind I’m going to take someone who was high up on my shortlist but who I didn’t back outright because of a lack of experience on the course. That is Scottie Scheffler. Officially he has never played a round of golf around here competitively but of course we know he has because he played the first round here last year before the event was cancelled. He didn’t just play he shot five under par and I see no reason why he won’t go well again in the opening round here. Scheffler has top 10s in two of his last three tournaments and in both of them he led the all-round rankings so he is clearly hitting the ball very well indeed. That bodes well for him having another strong round here. Scheffler is in great form, has an excellent tee time and has gone low in the one round he has played here. Having taken him to be the first round leader last year only to be voided I’ll take my chances again at 55/1.
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Thursday 3 Balls
The field are split up into groups of three in the main on Thursday. Due to the expanded size of the field because of the pandemic there are a couple of two balls mixed in but in the main the groups are going out in threes and with this being one of the bigger events on the circuit all of the groups onto the golf course have been priced up for us to get stuck into over the course of what will be a busy day in Jacksonville.
The standout group in the morning session is the one featuring the current champion Rory McIlroy who is out with former winners Webb Simpson and Sergio Garcia at 12.40 GMT while the afternoon feature group is the one with the three major winners from last year in it in Bryson DeChambeau, Collin Morikawa and Dustin Johnson. That three ball sets off at 18.00 GMT. There are plenty of great groups mixed in around them and with every shot live this year we can see it all unfold!
Phil Mickelson/Charles Howell III/Tony Finau
Match tees off at 12.07 GMT
The first of the three three-ball bets I like the look of on Thursday comes quite early in the morning session when Phil Mickelson embarks on another Players Championship campaign when he goes out alongside Charles Howell III and the popular Tony Finau.
I make this a two ball between Howell III and Finau. For all he has been great this track just doesn’t suit the waywardness of Mickelson so I have it about the other two. Howell’s form has dropped off a cliff in recent weeks though with three missed cuts and although he made the weekend at Bay Hill he never contended. His last four opening rounds have been scores of 72, 80, 79 and 74 so he is struggling out of the blocks. Finau has no such problems. He is hitting the ball well, scrambling nicely when needed to and scoring well. He’s the only one of this trio in form and can start the day well for us.
Byeong Hun An/Henrik Norlander/Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Match tees off at 13.35 GMT
The second of the three bets that I like on Thursday comes a little later in the morning wave of matches as the Korean star Byeong Hun An goes out alongside Henrik Norlander and the South African ace Christiaan Bezuidenhout in an international three ball.
I like An but the strength of his game is so often his driving and his driving accuracy has completely left him at present and you just can’t score on this golf course if you don’t drive the ball well. Norlander does that but he is getting a first real look at the track and even then a lot of his best form comes in slightly weaker events than this level. Bezuidenhout is the one for me here. He drives the ball very well and has an excellent short game and we saw that at Bay Hill last week where he finished inside the top 10. He is starting to become comfortable on the world scene and while I’m not completely convinced he has four good rounds in him I think his opening one will see off his playing partners here.
Patrick Reed/Jon Rahm/Jordan Spieth
Match tees off at 17.49 GMT
My final three ball bet for the opening day comes in the afternoon wave where the American former winners of The Masters, Patrick Reed and Jordan Spieth, go out alongside one of the leading Europeans in the game in Jon Rahm in one of the appealing groups of the day.
Spieth has really hit form in recent weeks which is good to see but his driving accuracy, or lack of it, is a huge concern here with all the water waiting for errant tee shots. Accuracy off the tee isn’t the forte of Reed either and might be the reason why his record here is so poor. Rahm doesn’t have a bad record here. It is quite the opposite in fact. He seems to enjoy this golf course and I’ve no doubt he’ll win here at some point in the future. He will probably think he should have done that two years ago when he led after 54 holes but faded. Rahm has played here three times in completed events and opened with 68 68 and 69. Spieth shot 67 here on debut in 2014 when his driving wasn’t so erratic but he hasn’t broke par in the first round since while Reed has only ever broken par twice in the first round. I think given the waywardness of the Americans this is Rahm’s to lose.
Tips
Back S.Scheffler First Round Leader (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 56.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-7)
Back T.Finau to beat P.Mickelson & C.Howell III for a 3/10 stake at 1.83 with William Hill
Back him here:
WON – Back C.Bezuidenhout to beat B-H.An & H.Norlander for a 3/10 stake at 2.25 with Betfair
Back him here:
Back J.Rahm to beat P.Reed & J.Spieth for a 3/10 stake at 2.38 with Boylesports
Back him here:
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