The third major of the golfing year has come around thick and fast this week as the leading lights in the world head to Torrey Pines in California for the US Open, the scene of the Tiger Woods win on one leg in 2008.
He won’t be in the field this year for obvious reasons but the 2020 winner Bryson DeChambeau will be and he will be looking emulate his big rival Brooks Koepka and make a successful defence of this title. As ever a strong field goes up against him.
Recent Winners
2020 – Bryson DeChambeau
2019 – Gary Woodland
2018 – Brooks Koepka
2017 – Brooks Koepka
2016 – Dustin Johnson
2015 – Jordan Spieth
2014 – Martin Kaymer
2013 – Justin Rose
2012 – Webb Simpson
2011 – Rory McIlroy
The Course
Torrey Pines is a regular stop on the PGA Tour with the venue hosting the Farmers Insurance Open in February. Two courses are used for that tournament whereas this one will be staged on just the South Course, the one played three times by those who make the cut at the Farmers. In that tournament the par is 72 but it has come down a stroke for this week with the par 71 and the course measuring 7,652 yards. It is the par 5 sixth hole which is a par four this week.
This course is often tough in February as the overseed is put onto it to maintain it but it will be even tougher in the height of summer. There is a softness to the track earlier in the season that won’t be there this week. Indeed the course will play firm and fast and the rough is said to have been allowed to grow up to five inches so if no rain comes along, and none is forecast, then this course will have to be played from the fairway so driving the ball well is a huge requirement. The course is on the Californian coastline so the breeze might become an issue.
The Field
Tiger Woods would have been the defending Torrey Pines champion this week but his accident means he isn’t in the field. The actual defending champion Bryson DeChambeau is as are the recent winners Gary Woodland, Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth, Martin Kaymer, Justin Rose, Webb Simpson and Rory McIlroy. The USPGA champion Phil Mickelson and The Masters winner Hideki Matsuyama are also in the field. The week is largely about Mickelson as he chased that elusive Grand Slam.
There are plenty of other notables in the field this week. Patrick Reed will defend the Farmers Insurance Open here next year while Marc Leishman defended it earlier in the year. Jon Rahm is another former winner of the Farmers in this field. Other players who will be looking for big weeks are the two men who contested the play-off at The Memorial a couple of weeks ago in Patrick Cantlay and Collin Morikawa while Tony Finau has a very good record here. Last week’s winner Garrick Higgo is also in the field.
Market Leaders
Jon Rahm is the emphatic 10/1 favourite to win this tournament. He has won here in the Farmers Insurance Open and been the runner up as well and he was a winner in waiting at The Memorial before the shenanigans with him testing positive for Covid-19. That is an issue we hope isn’t a factor this week. The good thing is he put in two negative tests so he didn’t have to do the full isolation and quarantine period so he has been able to prepare normally for this event. He looks to be coming into form nicely and is the one to beat for me. His price just doesn’t really reel me in.
We have a quartet of players who are next in the betting at 18/1 this week. They are the defending champion Bryson DeChambeau, former winners Brooks Koepka and Dustin Johnson and the home star Xander Schauffele. I don’t do defending champions at the best of times let alone in a major so I’m not interested in DeChambeau while Schauffele just feels too short regardless of him being at home and regularly in the mix in majors. Dustin Johnson doesn’t look in major winning form. Even when he got on the fringes of the front last week he fell away quickly which doesn’t bode well. I’m unsure whether Koepka can do four full rounds at the minute and that puts me off him.
Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth are next in the market at 22/1. If you look through the wins in the career of McIlroy there aren’t many that are on firm and fast courses like this one. He won at Quail Hollow last month but hasn’t done a whole lot since then. Spieth won this tournament at Chambers Bay but the overriding feeling is that US Open tracks are too long for him although this being firm and fast will help. His putting statistics aren’t as elite recently as they have been.
Former USPGA champions Collin Morikawa and Justin Thomas complete those who are 25/1 to shorter in the field. Thomas has gone right off the boil in recent times. His win at The Players in March was the last top 10 finish he achieved so as good as he is I can’t be having him in that form. Morikawa is of much more interest and might take a fair bit of beating at 25/1 although his putting can sometimes be a concern. It is 28/1 bar.
Main Bets
Patrick Cantlay is one of my two main bets this week. I’ve always thought he has the good all-round game for a US Open so his largely poor record in it is a bit of a mystery. In saying that there have been a few links like US Opens and a couple of absolute monsters in recent years which probably don’t suit him but Torrey Pines should suit him perfectly. He comes in here off the back of a win at The Memorial in which he was third in strokes gained off the tee and he was second for that discipline at the USPGA. He ranked fifth in both tournaments for strokes gained on approach too so his long game is in exceptional order. You don’t have to be a great putter to win at Torrey Pines but Cantlay can have weeks of magic with that stick and if this is one of them he could be very hard to beat here.
Scottie Scheffler hasn’t won on the PGA Tour yet and while there is no doubt that is a negative ahead of this tournament, he has pretty much done everything but win and he has been knocking at the door enough to make me think it will open sooner rather than later. He was the runner up at the Matchplay, third at The Memorial and fifth at the WGC Workday. He was also T18 at The Masters and T8 at the USPGA so he plays the big events very well. The reason for that is because he is such an impressive driver of the ball and he could catapult a few in this field off the tee. That is a statistic that is usually hugely important in a US Open so the Texan joins my team this week.
Outsiders
Like Cantlay, Jason Kokrak won on his last start and I think he has very obvious chances of going well in this tournament. He is a superb driver of the ball but we saw at the Charles Schwab Challenge that his short game is improving all the time. He got into a duel with Jordan Spieth in that tournament and came out on top and you have to be a good player to beat him at a course where length isn’t a factor. That was the second win of the season for Kokrak so he arrives here with his confidence extremely high. He has a bunch of top 30s at Torrey Pines so he knows the course well and with the way he is hitting the ball from tee to green he should be a huge factor here.
Marc Leishman is something of a Torrey Pines specialist and while the course is going to play a lot different here than it does in the beginning of the year, I don’t see that disadvantaging the Australian because he is used to firm and fast setups with a bit of breeze from back home. The important thing is that we know the course suits the eye of Leishman so if he can get his driver to cooperate, and he won’t need to pound it in these conditions, then it would be a surprise if he isn’t in contention when Sunday comes around.
Max Homa is a player who has caught my eye for someone who plays tough courses well. That is going to be a theme this week. Generally playing tough courses well is a mindset of liking the challenge so that is very much a positive. Homa won at one of those tough courses earlier in the season at Riviera when he won the Genesis and he was in the top 10 at Bay Hill and Muirfield Village so there is a lot to like about Homa this week. Winning majors might be just a step beyond him at this stage of his career but he should hang tough throughout the week and that might just be enough to stay deep in the mix at a decent price.
Finally nobody is gaining more shots off the tee than Jhonattan Vegas at the minute and as I keep repeating that is going to be a big thing this week. He led the field in strokes gained off the tee last week on his way to a second placed finish and he also led that statistic at Quail Hollow as well. He finished second in Puerto Rico and in the top 10 at the Byron Nelson. US Opens really are won off the tee these days. He can get it out there and is rarely too wayward with the driver so if he can have a good week with the rest of his game, which off the back of a good week last week he should be confident enough to, I think he could outrun his price.
Tips
Back P.Cantlay to win US Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-9)
Back J.Vegas to win US Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 176.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-9)
Back them here:
Back S.Scheffler to win US Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-10)
Back M.Homa to win US Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-10)
Back them here:
Back J.Kokrak to win US Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Bet365 (1/5 1-8)
Back M.Leishman to win US Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 76.00 with Bet365 (1/5 1-8)
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