The European Tour heads to one of its best venues this week when the Andalucia Masters takes place at the iconic Valderrama Golf Club, the scene of some of the biggest moments of European golf in recent times.
It was certainly one of the biggest moments for John Catlin when he won here last year and the American is back to defend the title, but he’ll go up against a much better field this week which might make keeping hold of the crown much more difficult.
Recent Winners
2020 – John Catlin
2019 – Christiaan Bezuidenhout
2018 – Sergio Garcia
2017 – Sergio Garcia
The Course
We are back at the Real Club Valderrama this week. The track is a par 71 which measures 7,028 yards so it isn’t overly long but it is very much a place where the pure ball strikers shine. You need a good short game around here too because all the greens have run off areas but it is a track to be played from the short grass, especially this time of year where the rough might have a bit of juice to it. This is usually a high scoring tournament, as evidenced with Catlin winning with an over par score.
The players had a fairly tame introduction to Spain again last week but they will be treated to a properly prepared course and the undulating fairways mean only those who are hitting the ball sweetly will score around here. Statistics wise we are looking at greens in regulation or strokes gained tee to green. Scrambling has become a feature around here too. Generally this course produces a top class winner.
The Field
Much like last week, the tournament field has an increase in profile because it contains the world number one Jon Rahm. He didn’t capitalise on a good start last week so will be eager to win on one on the most iconic golf courses in Europe. Rahm is joined in Spain by two of his Ryder Cup teammates in the form of Matthew Fitzpatrick and Bernd Wiesberger. They will all be looking to get the better of the defending champion John Catlin.
Another high profile player teeing it up this week is the man who prevailed in the Open de Espana last week in Rafael Cabrera Bello. Other notables in the field include Martin Kaymer, the British Masters champion Richard Bland, former winner around here Andrew Johnston, the Belgian pair of Thomas Detry and Thomas Pieters as well as Guido Migliozzi and Robert MacIntyre, who will be looking to prove themselves among the best in Europe.
Market Leaders
Much like last week, Jon Rahm is a general 3/1 favourite to win the tournament. He was pretty ordinary last weekend and you could see he was putting a lot of pressure on himself, which only seemed to make things worse for him. He was second here on his last visit in 2019 though and you would imagine it will be a goal of his to win on one of the best courses in Spain so I wouldn’t be surprised if he wins but I’m not interested in anyone at 3/1 around here.
Matthew Fitzpatrick is a 16/1 shot on the best prices to win on a course which you would think would suit him down to the ground with the long game test and scrambling necessity that this course provides. He missed the cut on his only appearance here in 2019 but that was in June and the course is likely to play much more into his hands here. The concern would be that Fitzpatrick hasn’t had a top 10 since the Scottish Open though and that is enough to put me off at the price.
Bernd Wiesberger is third in the betting at 22/1 and he would look to have a decent chance given his status in the game. His long game has been extremely good all season but I still can’t get that meltdown on the final hole of the Omega European Masters out of my mind when thinking of backing him. The big issue with the Austrian is his putter and while these greens are small you still have to put the ball in the hole. He has lost strokes with the putter in his last five tournaments which is enough of a concern to leave him out.
Richard Bland and Matthias Schwab are next in the betting at 33/1 on the best prices. I’ll come onto the former in a little while but Schwab feels a little on the short side to me. I think he has the making of being as good as his compatriot Wiesberger but he is still to win a European Tour event and while there have been a couple of first time winners land here in recent times, I’m not sure that is a trend to be following. Schwab has been switching his time between Europe and the US which is another negative for me. It is 35/1 bar.
Main Bets
Richard Bland is my first main bet this week. He ticks every box I’m after in terms of he is relentlessly straight off the tee and usually very precise into the greens but one of the reasons why he is having the best year of his career is the improvement to his short game and putting and that should make him a serious contender here. He isn’t the longest but length isn’t really anything around here. Three of the last four players to win here if you include Andrew Johnston in that list would be among the shorter hitters so not being long is no detriment around here. Accuracy is the order of the day and there aren’t many as accurate as Bland in the form he’s in. Since he won the British Masters his form has been 3-50-4-15-67-3-MC-5-57-9-4 with the four indifferent efforts coming in elite field events. This isn’t one of those so I expect another strong showing from Bland here.
There were a few players who could have gone up as my second main bet, Martin Kaymer probably leading the list, but I’ve still not forgiven him for messing up in Abu Dhabi when I was on him years ago and the fact he hasn’t won since would suggest that meltdown still lingers within him as well. That makes me side with a second option which is a player who has won around here in the past in Andrew Johnston. He won the Open de Espana here in 2016 and has generally gone pretty well since then too with a couple of to 25s and he had a competitive week lined up two years ago until a bad weekend. Johnston looked in good order in the long game last week and although his putter didn’t play ball that club might have needed some rust shedding after four weeks off. We know he putts well here though and he tends to play well at the same courses, more often than not ones where there is a huge tee to green test. He ranked sixth in that statistic at Wentworth and 10 for it last week so if the putter does come alive he’s a major player here.
Outsiders
Shubhankar Sharma tends to come to the fore of my mind whenever Wentworth has recently been and gone and sure enough he posted another top 10 in Surrey last month and has followed that up with creditable efforts since then, not least last week in Spain where he finished third, ranked second for greens in regulation and in the top two for strokes gained in the tee to green and approach statistics. A repeat of that effort on this tighter, tougher track is likely to have him right in the mix even on a course where he hasn’t had much in the way of success thus far in his career. He is solid in the long game and is scrambling well so he shouldn’t be far away.
I always think that this course produces good winners so those who are already in the winners enclosure are very much favoured and one of those is Marcus Armitage. ‘The Bullet’ won on a tough track in Germany earlier in the year, a week after contending on a tight track in Denmark and then he made the top 10 in Switzerland where there is also emphasis on the long game. Although he finished T30 at Wentworth, there was a second round 66 there which is encouraging. In between those events he put up creditable efforts but on courses that didn’t suit or events where the winning score was pushing -20 and better. We’ll get none of that nonsense this week so the more demanding test can sort the men from the boys. Armitage showed in Germany that he’s a man and I fancy him to show us that again here at a three figure price.
Tips
Back R.Bland to win Andalucia Masters (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back A.Johnston to win Andalucia Masters (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Betway (1/5 1-6)
Back S.Sharma to win Andalucia Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 61.00 with BetVictor (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back M.Armitage to win Andalucia Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
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