The opening semi-final of the T20 World Cup 2021 is a repeat of the 50 over World Cup final from two years ago when the Super 12 Group 1 winners England take on the runners up of Group 2 in the form of New Zealand.
England dominated their group while New Zealand recovered from defeat in their opening match to cruise into this semi-final. Both teams have four wins from five matches in this tournament so far but the pressure is really on here.
England
England will go in search of their second successive final in this tournament here after they made it to the title showdown in India five years ago only to come up short in the big game. They were a good side then and are a much improved side now but one or two injuries have started to come along and could be detrimental to their chances of winning this tournament. Jason Roy and Tymal Mills were the two men they rely on at either end of the innings.
England can probably cover for any loss of Roy because they have Jonny Bairstow and Liam Livingstone who are comfortable opening the batting and have had success at it but replacing Mills immediately looked to be an issue when they lost to South Africa on Saturday. England’s weakness traditionally in white ball cricket has been at the death and the absence of Mills could just raise the spotlight on that. If anyone can conjure a plan to deal with that though Eoin Morgan is the one.
New Zealand
Technically New Zealand play knockout cricket for the first time in this tournament here but you could make an argument for their last four matches having been do or die given the nature of the way their group was playing out with Pakistan blazing a trail. To their credit, New Zealand won all four of those matches and you would have to say they never looked in any trouble in any of those victories which must fill them with confidence.
New Zealand have largely dominated their matches with the ball. That isn’t a surprise. They have three of the best new ball bowlers in the competition while their two spinners are crafty and canny. They aren’t the flashiest or biggest hitting with the bat but they know their limitations and play to them knowing full well that they are rarely going to need a monster score to have a chance of winning a match. New Zealand go into this match off the back of four straight wins so they will be brimming with positivity going in here.
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Key Men
England have to get ahead of the game in this match and with Jason Roy out for the remainder of the tournament that man here needs to be Jos Buttler. He is the one who can accelerate the run rate early on and have England in the position they need to be in.
On the flip side of that, New Zealand need early wickets to keep England in check and with Trent Boult being their leading bowler in the tournament to date he is the man Kane Williamson will be looking at to deliver the goods.
Betting
If everything was even in this semi-final I would be backing New Zealand to come out on top, but we have seen throughout the tournament that the dew factor is so strong we can’t bet on the match outcome. I’m a big believer in these knockout matches that bowlers win them and I think the New Zealand attack is better than the English one given the injury to Tymal Mills but that is all irrelevant if they are not bowling first. That means we have to go to the outside bets for a punt in this one.
The bet I like is for there to be more than 284.5 runs. Abu Dhabi is the highest scoring ground in use in this competition and when you factor in the dew the run scoring is likely to be stay in place for what is the last match at this venue. If the chasing team wins, which it has tended to do throughout much of this tournament, then we need just 142 in the first innings for this bet to land. England were keeping sides to less than that earlier in the competition but the loss of Mills at the death is a big one as we saw against South Africa in their last group game. New Zealand have the better attack but England bat deep. I like the thought of plenty of runs here so I’ll take the over.
Tips
Back Over 284.5 runs for a 3/10 stake at 1.83 with Bet365
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