The penultimate event of the last European Tour season will be played out in Dubai this week and for a number of players it is an event which couldn’t be any bigger as it is the last chance for those who need points to secure their tour card to get them, as well as those chasing a place in the DP World Tour Final next week to get in there.
It is the Dubai Championship which leads us into the final event of the season and with this tournament not being on the schedule for next term yet, whoever follows Antoine Rozner into the winning enclosure could have the trophy for a long time!
Recent Winners
2020 – Antoine Rozner
The Course
We are at the Jumeirah Golf Estates both this week and next but for this tournament we are on the Fire Course as opposed to the Earth Course which hosts the season finale next week. This course is a par 72 which measures a pretty big 7,480 yards, although in the dry desert air and the firm ground it doesn’t play that long. Two of the par 5s are over 600 yards and there is also a 251 yard par 3 so having some length is certainly no bad thing around here.
We’ve only had one event here where -25 won and you only just made the top 10 with -19. It would be a surprise if too much has changed but we have seen the Earth Course involved into a better test year on year so it might be that something changes here. There is a forecast for breeze and this track is pretty exposed so that might keep the scoring a little lower. Ultimately I think we’re looking for bigger hitters who have a hot putter over anything else.
The Field
This tournament has the same slot as it had last season but it has a much stronger field. It probably still isn’t as strong as I thought it might be given that next week’s season ending event is in the same place but the appearances of the likes of Tommy Fleetwood and Paul Casey certainly add an outstanding quality to proceedings. Their Ryder Cup teammate Bernd Wiesberger is in the field as are the defending champion Antoine Rozner and the likes of Matt Wallace and Andy Sullivan.
Among those who are also teeing it up this week are the likes of Scottish Open champion Min Woo Lee, Open de Espana champion Rafa Cabrera Bello, two time winner on the UK Swing last year in Sam Horsfield and the Czech Masters champion Johannes Veerman. Rising European stars Victor Perez and Robert MacIntyre are both here as are seasoned campaigners such as Martin Kaymer, Thorbjorn Olesen and Eddie Pepperell.
Market Leaders
Dubai Desert Classic champion Paul Casey will tee off as an 11/1 favourite to complete something of a 2021 Dubai double. He is making his debut on this course which might be one concern for those thinking of backing him while another issue would be that if this is a low scoring week he has to play front foot golf for 72 holes when perhaps he is using this week to get adjusted to conditions ahead of next week. Casey is clearly good enough to win but I don’t think this track allows his extra class to shine as much as others.
Tommy Fleetwood starts the week one point bigger in the betting than Casey. He is another player who has a decent record in the desert but the big concern with him is whether his putter stays hot enough. If this is another bonkers low scoring week Fleetwood won’t be able to have a flat spot with that putter. Three top 10s in his last five starts worldwide suggest that Fleetwood has put his slow start to 2021 behind him but he might still be a little short based on the openness of this event.
Bernd Wiesberger is a third member of the field who has a pretty good record in the desert. He will tee off as an 18/1 shot on the best prices and wouldn’t be without a chance if he has his best game with him. He is a pretty long hitter and when he is playing well he putts very strongly. He won in Denmark in May and has been knocking on the door since then but he has lose strokes on the field with the putter in five of his last six tournaments and in a potential shootout that doesn’t inspire a bet out of me.
Matt Wallace is the only other player in the field who is shorter than 25/1 in the betting. The Englishman can be backed at 22/1 to win this week. The obvious issue with backing Wallace is it is over three years since he got his nose in front on the European Tour. He’s missed his last three cuts and his desert record isn’t fantastic even if it isn’t terrible. He was a runner up here last year which counts for something but on current form much better value lies elsewhere.
Main Bets
Rafa Cabrera Bello isn’t my favourite player to have my funds tied up on because he doesn’t win anywhere near as often as he should given the amount of times he puts himself in position to win, but having won his home tournament last month I’m hoping the penny might have dropped. You could argue he put himself in place to win again the following week but I regularly point out the emotional energy that gets used up in winning and so I’m not going to hold that against him, especially as it was at Valderrama where winning is never easy. RCB ticks a lot of boxes this week. He isn’t overly long but he’s decent with the irons and is one of the best putters in Europe. I didn’t see much evidence of this being a links track but the designer Greg Norman suggests that is what it is. The Spaniard has won on a links track at the Scottish Open and he’s also won in the desert in the Dubai Desert Classic. He has six European Tour and Challenge Tour wins on his CV with scores of -16, -25, -20, -18, -13 and -19 so he wins low scoring events and he’s in decent nick. He should go very well here.
When I was looking through the form of Johannes Veerman I was amazed he has barely played a single tournament in the desert. The only one I could find in the UAE was in Qatar earlier this season where he finished T14. That might be significant because the wind has an impact around there like it might here this week. Veerman was also T8 in Scotland earlier in the season so certainly the breeze aspect of the week isn’t going to be an issue. He should have won in Kenya earlier in the season so we know the dry, humid air isn’t going to stop him from winning. Since all of those tournaments he has got over the line on the European Tour, coming out on top in the Czech Masters on a track not too dissimilar to this one. If there is a concern over the American it is that he’s had six weeks off since the Dunhill Links but the last time he had an extended break was after The Open. His first tournament back he won the Czech Masters so that isn’t a big concern. I think he’s a big price on a course which should really suit.
Outsiders
Francesco Laporta looks a pretty obvious outside pick this week. He was in the tie for second here last year and has really kicked on in 2021. He has recorded top 10s in three of his last six starts with two of the three disappointing weeks being in the Dunhill Links where he was on the wrong end of the draw and Valderrama where if you start slowly there your goose gets cooked straight away. He has top 10s in Portugal, Italy and at Wentworth and I expect another big showing here. He is hitting the ball very well from tee to green despite not being the longest and in the main his putter is playing ball. He gained more than six shots on the field on the dancefloors in Portugal last week and if he is putting like that here he should go well again.
I’m pretty sure we are going to see Alex Levy back winning tournaments again soon. He has shown signs of life in recent weeks. Aside from his runner up spot in the Cazoo Classic you probably wouldn’t notice it from his results but on most occasions it is just one bad round which has found him out. Some of those have come on trickier setups where if something can go wrong players in a bit of a slump in their career will find the trouble but there isn’t really anything like that here. Levy is experienced in the desert and although he hasn’t won there he has won in not too dissimilar conditions in Morocco in the past. This is a five-time European Tour winner who will win again when he puts four rounds together. I’ll pay and see if that is here.
Another seasoned campaigner who is putting some form together is Alvaro Quiros and this twice winner in Dubai and again in Qatar surely has to be backed this week. He has put up three top 20 finishes in the last few months, in Scotland, the Hero Open and Mallorca and I think he’s clicking into gear. He was a lot better than T11 in Mallorca where a poor final round cost him but I’m hoping that experience will stand him in good stead if he gets into position to win here. We know he can play in Dubai conditions, he can get home on most of the longer holes and if he can putt like he did in Scotland and Mallorca, and he tends to putt better in the desert, then he could give us a run at a three figure price.
Tips
Back R.Cabrera Bello to win Dubai Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back F.Laporta to win Dubai Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 61.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back A.Levy to win Dubai Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 91.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
Back J.Veerman to win Dubai Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 46.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-7)
Back A.Quiros to win Dubai Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
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unlucky with laporta Kev. Putt almost dropped on the 18 forcing a possible play off.