The PGA Tour season resumes this week with the annual calendar curtain raiser being the Sentry Tournament of Champions, the tournament where only the winners from 2021 are invited out to Hawaii to compete.
Harris English took full advantage of his invitation last year to win the event, a win which meant he qualifies to attempt to defend the title. 37 other players will be looking to snatch the first crown of 2022 off him.
Recent Winners
2021 – Harris English
2020 – Justin Thomas
2019 – Xander Schauffele
2018 – Dustin Johnson
2017 – Justin Thomas
2016 – Jordan Spieth
2015 – Patrick Reed
2014 – Zach Johnson
2013 – Dustin Johnson
2012 – Steve Stricker
The Course
We are back on the Plantation Course at the Kapalua Resort in Hawaii this week, a track that will be incredibly familiar to the regulars in this tournament even allowing for the changes made to the course ahead of the event two years ago. It is a par 73 which can be something of a monster at 7,596 yards although the ball flies here so it doesn’t play quite to that yardage. Despite the length the only defence this course has is the wind and that isn’t expected to be too bad this week.
In essence this is a second shot golf course as the fairways here are incredibly wide and even if they are missed the rough isn’t too bad. Firing irons into the greens is the key to success here because the greens were flattened with the redevelopment. There are only three par 3s on this course but four par 5s and a few shorter par 4s, remember this is the place that Dustin Johnson nearly made an ace on a 400+ yard hole here when he tore the event up in 2018. Recently length and a very hot putter have been keys to success here.
The Field
The qualifying criteria for the tournament has returned to how it was prior to last year in that only the winners in 2021 received an invite. Last year those who made the Tour Championship the previous year were invited because of the reduced schedule but with the calendar back to normal just the 40 winners were allowed to enter this week. Rory McIlroy chose not to enter and Cameron Champ tested positive for Covid so we are down to 38 runners.
The FedExCup champion Patrick Cantlay makes his first appearance since he scooped the loot in Atlanta while the newly crowned European number one Collin Morikawa is also in the field, as is the most recent singles winner in Viktor Hovland, who won the Hero World Challenge last month. Justin Thomas, Patrick Reed, Xander Schauffele and Jordan Spieth are some of the former winners in the field this week as is Jon Rahm. In fact, all four major champions are here because Phil Mickelson and Bryson DeChambeau are teeing it up too.
Market Leaders
Two time champion Justin Thomas is the favourite to win the tournament for a third time this week. He finished 2021 with three top five finishes in his last five tournaments but his putter was a little too hot and cold for my liking. That said, few in this field know this place as well as he does and if anything is going to sort out some putting woes it could be a return here. I don’t think there is a huge amount of juice in the 8/1 price in what is a stacked field this year.
Jon Rahm was the shots gained winner of the Tour Championship but the only times he has been since have seen him miss the cut in two of the three tournaments he has played. He has had a good break though so you would expect him to come out firing on a course where a lot of his strengths can overpower the track. He is another who didn’t end 2021 in the best touch with the short stick though and that always puts me off at a single figure price. At 9/1 he’s a little too short.
Collin Morikawa had a fantastic 2021 with a win at The Open and claiming the Race to Dubai title among other achievements and he is 11/1 to kick 2022 off with a bang. He can compete on these long tracks but they are not courses which play to his strengths. The other concern I have is how he just melted down with a huge lead at the Hero World Challenge last month. That might have been mental fatigue after some big events in which case the break might do him good but there’s nothing in the price that makes me charge in.
Bryson DeChambeau and Xander Schauffele are next in the betting at 12/1. Schauffele has won here before so we know he has what it takes to get the job done but his form was only average in the two events he has played this season. I respect his record here but that is factored into the price. The last time we saw Bryson DeChambeau were bashing long drives in the World Championship for that discipline and copping a beating in ‘The Match’. Neither effort inspires me to back him either. It is 14/1 bar.
Main Bets
Cameron Smith has never really done it here but he has only played in the event twice and so I’m prepared to give him another go because this track should suit him well. If there is a weakness to his game it is driving accuracy but you don’t need to worry too much about that here. This is all about the iron shot and the short game and that is where the Australian excels. He has won in Hawaii before having landed the Sony Open at the beginning of 2020 so we know the conditions won’t be an issue. I always think there is a bit of a correlation in the setup of this place to Augusta and Smith has gone well there in the past. If he hits the ground running this week he is entitled to be right there come the end of the week.
Patrick Reed has already won around here back in 2015 and he has been a runner up twice since then. He offered a relative no show here in 2019 and 2021 so there is a bit of hit or miss about him on this track but I’ll pay to see if he is a hit here this week. Reed had his issues with Covid in the second half of last year which saw his form go up and down but assuming he is perfectly healthy then I fancy he’ll be eager to hit the ground running on a track he clearly has an excellent record at overall. His short game still matches most so he’s another that with a good start he can be right there this week.
Outsider
I was going to have Cameron Champ as one of my outsiders but he has had to withdraw because he has tested positive for Covid so I’m left with one outsider here which comes in the form of Seamus Power, a player who is on debut here but I think the fact he has qualified will act as motivation in its own right. Power lives up to his name because he has a power game but his short game has been in good order for a while. He finished off 2021 with a top five at the RSM Classic and probably has more motivation than most to deliver a big week here. I’ll pay to see how far he goes.
Tips
WON – Back C.Smith to win Sentry Tournament of Champions (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 23.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back P.Reed to win Sentry Tournament of Champions (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back S.Power to win Sentry Tournament of Champions (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-6)
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Hi Kev, Happy New year to you and the crew. Looking forward to your insight and another successful year from the GOAT golf tipster.
Happy New Year to you too mate. Fingers crossed we can pin a few more winners throughout 2022!
That didn’t take long Kev. Great call again. Pillar to post victory. Very calm no nonsense player Smith. Full credit to him having Jon Rahm on your tail throughout. The way Rahm is playing atm he will likely be the man to beat all season. Justin Thomas also looks like being a major threat this year despite his poor opening round. Hats off again Kev.