The T20 World Cup has another double header of action on Tuesday and the first match is a straight up do or die for Afghanistan and Sri Lanka when they meet in the latest clash in Group 1 of the Super 12 stage.
The winner of this one will keep their semi-final hopes alive while whoever loses it will be out of contention to make the last four and will play their last game in the group purely for pride so there is everything on the line here.
Afghanistan
If Afghanistan were to lose here and exit the competition they have every right to feel aggrieved that they haven’t really had the chance to show what they can do in the tournament. Their opening match was against England in Perth which was probably the worst venue they could have faced them in and the two subsequent matches, including one against an Ireland side they would have fancied their chances against, have been washed out. There is the potential for rain to get involved in this one too.
One thing we did see from Afghanistan in the only match they have been able to play in the tournament to date was that they had a seam attack which could have caused some damage in the conditions we have had in this competition so far. We also saw shades of what they can offer with the bat albeit in conditions that they were completely alien to. They’ll be hoping the rain disappears and they get to show the best side of them.
Sri Lanka
This has very much been an up and down rollercoaster of a tournament for Sri Lanka. When they have been good they have really impressed but when they have been off it they have stunk the place out. That was the case in their opening group and it has been the case in this one too. They demolished Ireland in their first game in it but then ran into a storm of Marcus Stoinis in the second one and completely let themselves down in the third game against New Zealand.
The one thing which has crept into the Sri Lankan game which needs to come out of it is their fielding has taken a serious downturn. That has to change. They also need their middle order to come to the party because so far it has largely been absent without leave. The one positive for the Sri Lanka side is that despite all the injuries they have encountered, their bowlers haven’t let them down and they will need them again here.
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Team News
Afghanistan are expected to be unchanged from the team which played against England in their only match of the tournament so far. If the weather has cleared up they could consider bringing Qais Ahmad into the side.
Sri Lanka are also expected to go in unchanged even despite the margin of defeat in their last game. They don’t really have the luxury of a wealth of options to make changes right now given the injuries they have encountered.
Betting
I like a couple of bets over the course of this one. I’m not expecting a high scoring match because the conditions are likely to be damp and heavy and not really conducive to batting. The other thing to add to that is this is a knockout match so there is going to be plenty of pressure doing the rounds here. We don’t really know how the Afghanistan batting is going because we’ve only seen it once but we know their bowling is very good and given that Sri Lanka aren’t batting too well I don’t expect the Asia Cup champions to have this all their own way. There are parts of this ground which are on the smaller sides but there are some expansive areas too and it is those which can keep the boundary count below 33.5.
The other bet I like is for Chamika Karunaratne to be the leading Sri Lanka batter. I took him in the last game and he walked out at six with a top score of four on the board and so I’ll pay to see if something similar happens in either a shortened match or one where batting first is very difficult. If it does happen hopefully this time he doesn’t whack a long hop straight down the throat of a fielder. He scored 31* against Afghanistan in the Asia Cup so that is certainly encouraging and at the prices he looks big here.
Tips
Back Under 33.5 boundaries for a 3/10 stake at 1.80 with William Hill
Back it here:
Back C.Karunaratne Top Sri Lanka Batter for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Coral
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