The first WGC of the year is hours away from beginning and we have already covered the outright market for the Dell Match Play and before the first tee shot is hit there is enough time to take a look at the group markets for the event.
All 16 groups have been priced up and while there are some worthy favourites there are plenty of tempting prices on some of the outsiders and the middle seeds. We’ve looked through all of the group markets and like bets in four of them.
Group 1
Scottie Scheffler is the top dog in Group 1 and the defending champion certainly looks like the likely qualifier from this section but I’m not convinced this is going to be as straightforward as perhaps it looks. Only twice since the tournament came to Austin has the number one seed won his group and Scheffler is in a competitive section.
Scheffler is in with Tom Kim, Alex Noren and Davis Riley. Kim has been around for a while and is already a PGA Tour winner but he is on debut here. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he comes out on top in this group but at the very least he is capable of being a spoiler. Riley looks like he has drawn a right short straw as a debutant but at 11/2 I think Alex Noren could be worth a shot here. He is an excellent match player and has an 11-5 record around here. He has twice won his group in 2017 and 2018 and finished third in the latter year. He only lost out in a sudden death playoff in 2019 and then last year he beat course specialist Louis Oosthuizen in a group which became a bit of a farce after Paul Casey pulled out and eventually came second to Corey Conners. Noren is very good in this format of the game, comfortable on this golf course and good in the wind. While getting the better of Scheffler isn’t going to be easy, at 11/2 I’ll pay to see if he does it.
Group 5
Max Homa has been one of the best players in the world this season and he is the top seed in Group 5 but his match play record still has plenty of improvement in it, especially here where he is 3-3 from his six matches and is yet to come out of his group. On the other side of that he has never arrived here in the form he is in right now but I still think there might be a vulnerability about him here, especially as he has been playing high pressure golf for a number of weeks recently.
The other issue for Homa is he has landed in a group with the former Masters champion Hideki Matsuyama, a Kevin Kisner who has a phenomenal record in this and a free rolling Justin Suh who has been in excellent form in Florida recently. Matsuyama has to be respected but while his form has been absolutely terrible the 5/1 on Kisner to win this group can’t be ignored. This isn’t stroke play where a terrible shot costs you a cut or a tournament. A bad shot at worst damages you for one hole. Kisner has won this tournament and finished second twice and that has been in the five years it has been held here at Austin Country Club. The other two years he finished second in his group to Brooks Koepka and Matt Kuchar who both have good records here. Homa feels vulnerable so I’ll pay to see if Kisner gets good vibes from this event again.
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Group 8
Viktor Hovland is the top dog in Group 8 of the competition but we are still waiting for him to come out of his group and that immediately makes me want to take him on. To be fair to Hovland, he only lost out in a sudden death shootout to Will Zalatoris last year but it does nothing to convince me particularly when we know the weakness of his game is on and around the greens which is never a good thing in match play.
Hovland has landed a group with The Honda Classic winner Chris Kirk, Pete Dye specialist Si Woo Kim and the former winner of this and finalist here in Matt Kuchar. There is a clear case to be made for Kuchar but I prefer Kirk here. Kirk is very good with the short stick and in recent weeks he has gained more strokes with the putter than anyone in this group over the last 24 rounds. Kirk has been swinging the club well recently as we saw in particular at PGA National and he is the only member of this group who has a winning record here aside from Kuchar. At 7/2 I think there is plenty of juice in the Kirk price.
Group 11
The other group I feel has to be attacked is Group 11 where Matthew Fitzpatrick is a vulnerable favourite. I get that he comes here as a major champion but he has never come out of his group here and is 7-10 in the times he has played in this tournament on this course. Fitzpatrick has finished second three times out of five but that doesn’t get you anywhere and there are growing concerns that he is carrying an injury which isn’t ideal.
Fitzpatrick has landed a group with Sahith Theegala and J.J. Spaun, both of whom make their debuts here, as well as Min Woo Lee and it is the latter that I will take him on with. The Australian went 1-1-1 on debut here last year which is nothing special but at the same time is no disaster but he arrives here off the back of a decent spin at The Players Championship recently. You don’t go well there if you are not hitting the ball well and with Min Woo having the length off the tee and a decent enough short game he could be the value alternative to Fitzpatrick at 3/1.
Tips
Back A.Noren to win Group 1 for a 1/10 stake at 6.50 with Boylesports
Back C.Kirk to win Group 8 for a 2/10 stake at 4.50 with Boylesports
Back them here:
Back K.Kisner to win Group 5 for a 1/10 stake at 6.00 with Coral
Back M.Woo Lee to win Group 11 for a 2/10 stake at 4.00 with Coral
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