The flat racing season continues over in Ireland on Wednesday with Leopardstown hosting the action in that part of the world. For a midweek meeting the card is quite a competitive one which should make for some good racing.
We are still waiting for the classics to come along next month but while we wait for those and the Grand National next weekend we have two races which give us a betting interest across the course of Wednesday at the Irish venue.
3.05 Leopardstown
Preview
This is a nice looking handicap over a mile and a quarter with a field of 16 expected to head down to the start. Heavy ground is very likely and that’s got to be a key consideration in narrowing down the field. Cristal Clere won here over 2 furlongs shorter just 3 days ago and has a 7lb penalty although, given how easily he won, that could be lenient. The question mark is whether the race comes too soon. Purple Gown is another to have won on Sunday and she too has that same 7lb penalty whilst, for Brazil, this is surely just to keep his eye on before going for a bigger prize over hurdles. We are going with 2 selections in this.
Betting
Starting Monday – He’s a gelding well suited by cut in the ground as both of his career wins have come with heavy in the going description. Those 2 wins spanned the end of 2020 and start of 2021, with the second of those wins coming off a mark of 71; he’s just 2lbs higher today. Since then, he has some decent pieces of form including a 2nd on soft off 78 and 4th of 17 on heavy off that same mark of 78. Recent form also has some cause for optimism. He was 2nd of 11 on soft off today’s mark at Killarney last October before failing to fire on his last run of 2022. On reappearance, he ran well for a long way at the Curragh on soft to heavy when 5th of 19, the front 5 coming clear. He was behind Purple Gown but is 11lbs better off with that rival. The selection was travelling as well as any and probably ran as if in need of the run. Billy Lee deserts him which is a slight concern but the replacement booking is hardly a negative whilst he’s yet to strike over this trip and some are suggesting stamina doubts but I actually think he might just improve for it as he has looked to be a little outpaced at the business end of recent races.
Butterfly Garden – This lightly raced 4 year old filly looks massively overpriced. In 8 runs on turf, she’s won twice and finished 2nd on 4 other occasions. That has seen her mark continue to rise but I’m sure she’s reached her peak just yet. Until her last run last term, her form read 2-5-2-2-1-2-1 and in that time, she was never more than a length and a half off the winner. Her mark rose from an opening 54 and on her last start, she ran off today’s mark off 76 where she finished 6th of 13 at Killarney. That day, she raced freely and paid for late on but I also think the fact she stayed on the inside whilst others came down the middle on very soft ground also played a part. For me, that run can be upgraded and I think she’s still capable off today’s mark. Her form has been over this trip and further so there’s no doubt she’ll last home, even on bottomless ground. With extra places on offer, she rates a good shout to, at least, get into the money at very rewarding odds.
Tips
Back Starting Monday (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 11.00 Coral BOG (⅕ odds 1-5)
Back Butterfly Garden (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 21.00 Paddy Power BOG (⅕ odds 1-5)
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5.52 Leopardstown
Preview
The last race on the card is a poor looking handicap over 9 furlongs where the top weight only has a mark of 62. Neverfindanother U is favourite on the basis of her recent form on the all weather and she’s gone up 8lbs for a half a length victory last time out. In 2 past runs on heavy, she showed nothing so that’s a worry. Bringsty has won on soft in the UK and his form has been decent enough over in Ireland but his odds are a little short in a 16 runner race whilst Nevada Brave and Tara Power are better known for this all weather exploits.
Betting
Theophilos – the selection has been off the track for almost 7 months and, on past form, he’s hard to recommend but I think he could be racing off a lenient mark on his handicap debut. On his 2nd start at Bellewstown, he showed massive inexperience and was miles off the pace but ran well in good fashion to finish a reasonably distant 7th over a mile before stepping up again at this track when 6th of 12 behind 83-rated Only, again staying on well yet being handled noticeably tenderly. The draw then did for him at Gowran Park and he could never land a blow racing wide all the while although again he stayed on past beaten horses albeit was a never nearer 10th. The yard has already suggested that improvement could be forthcoming on soft ground and early odds also indicate this is his best chance of the short career so far. With many of its rivals looking exposed and the relative poor nature of the opposition, I think he’s the one with the most potential improvement and off a lowly mark of 61, I’m expecting him to trouble the judge for the first time in 5 runs.
Tips
Back Theophilos (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 13.00 Skybet BOG (⅕ odds 1-5)
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