The PGA Tour heads to Detroit this week for a tournament which is becoming a regular on the circuit in the shape of the Rocket Mortgage Classic, one of just a few events which remain for those who are not in the top 70 in the FedExCup standings to get there ahead of the playoffs.
Tony Finau belted his way to victory in this tournament last year and he has no concerns about not finishing in the top 70 in those rankings. He will be all about launching a successful title defence against a moderate field in comparison to some we have seen this term.
Recent Winners
2022 – Tony Finau
2021 – Cameron Davis
2020 – Bryson DeChambeau
2019 – Nate Lashley
The Course
We are back at the Detroit Golf Club this week where the same composite course as last year is being used. The course being used is a par 72 which measures 7,370 yards which still isn’t overly long by modern standards. It is designed by Donald Ross and most of his courses rely on accuracy into tight greens and good putting techniques on greens which have plenty of slopes on them. There isn’t usually an emphasis off the tee although Tony Finau, Cameron Davis and Bryson DeChambeau winning the last three years highlights the advantage length has around here.
All things being equal though, this is going to turn into a shootout so basically we are looking for players to give themselves a lot of chances on the greens and those who are putting well enough to convert them. Storms passed through this part of the world on Sunday and created a bit of damage which will have been repaired but the legacy of that is we are going to have a soft golf course which will only get softer with more rain forecast as the week goes on. Do not deviate from length this week.
The Field
I guess we get a bit blasé when we see an ordinary field these days such is the number of designated tournaments we are getting used to but the entry list here can only be described as that. We do have the defending champion Tony FInau teeing it up which I always think gives an event a bit of a lift while a couple of other eye catching names among the entries include a back to form Rickie Fowler and Justin Thomas who will be looking to build on better times last week. Collin Morikawa is another hoping to find some form here.
The international charge will be spearheaded by a trio of Asian players this week in Tom Kim, Hideki Matsuyama and Sungjae Im while Keegan Bradley looks like he will honour his commitment to the event a few days after an emotional win. Max Homa also tees it up here along with the former champion Cameron Davis. There isn’t much of a European presence here this week but what there is will be led by Stephan Jaeger, Aaron Rai and Sepp Straka.
Market Leaders
We have a trio of co-favourites this week with those being the defending champion Tony Finau, Rickie Fowler and Collin Morikawa, all of whom are 14/1. Regular readers will know that defending champions do nothing for me so that gets rid of Finau while Fowler has contended heavily for the last couple of weeks and has sponsor commitments here so I’ll pass him over. A lack of length could put paid to Morikawa so I’m happy to look deeper into the market.
Two players begin the week as 18/1 shots to land the title. Max Homa is very much a class act but tends to do his best work over in California rather than in Michigan and he has come off the top edge of his form. The other player is Hideki Matsuyama who might find that other longer hitters are better placed to contend, but if he can get the putter hot right out of the traps, the Japanese ace certainly has the class to be in the mix on Sunday.
Two players come next in the betting at 20/1. Usually if Justin Thomas would tee it up in an event of this kind with a field of this level he would be no bigger than half of this price but the 20/1 quotes are a reflection of his body of work over the last few months. There were shoots of life last week but I’d need to see more to know that wasn’t the anomaly. Tom Kim is the other one at 20/1 and while I wouldn’t put anyone off of him, he has gone a little quiet too.
Main Bets
I’ll go with a couple of main bets this week with the first of those being Cam Davis who has a good record around here having won this tournament two years ago and then finished T14 in his defence of the title a year ago. That is certainly no bad effort and with no time restrictions as defending champion this year there is no reason why he can’t go well again here. He finished with a 63 at TPC River Highlands last week and while the course wasn’t set up as hard as it could be you don’t shoot 63 anywhere if you are not hitting the ball well. That should have given the long hitting Aussie plenty of confidence and I think he is a leading shout this week.
The other main bet for me is Byeong Hun-An, the big hitting Korean who has gone a little under the radar with some decent bits of form in recent times. He missed the cut on the number last week when he shot -3 but the three weeks prior to that he finished T14 at the Byron Nelson, T21 at a tough Colonial CC in the Charles Schwab Challenger where he was seven under at the halfway mark before a tough weekend. He was also T24 in The Memorial. They all had better fields than here and Byron Nelson aside none of them had tests which suit the strengths of the Korean so he might be just be underrated this week. An was T13 here in 2019 and I fancy he’ll go better this week.
Outsiders
I was on Taylor Pendrith here last year and I thought I was going to be counting my chips after 54 holes when he was in the final group and looking a million dollars. He faded at the time Tony Finau got stronger though and my race was soon run but I’m happy to chance the Canadian again because this test is ideal for him and the softer course might only make him even harder to repel. It means the fairways get even wider and as a huge hitter the shorter irons he will be hitting into the greens means he can be much more aggressive. Having played the event and know what to expect throughout the week I think he’ll be better suited if he is in contention again and as a result he is another who looks a live outsider here.
My last bet will be on Cameron Champ. There is always an all or nothing about him and that is evidenced by his displays this season that have seen two top 10 finishes and pretty much nothing else but as a huge hitter he hasn’t always had tracks which suit him but this one certainly will. Much like Pendrith, the softer it is the better his chances are as the width of the course only increases for him. He is another who will be hitting shorter irons into greens which are going to be very receptive and if he can control the spin on those iron shots and go flag hunting he should set up a lot of chances here. I’ll pay to see how many of them he converts.
Tips
Back C.Davis to win Rocket Mortgage Classic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 31.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
Back B-H.An to win Rocket Mortgage Classic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 46.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
Back T.Pendrith to win Rocket Mortgage Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 71.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
Back C.Champ to win Rocket Mortgage Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
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