We have had a look at the title race in the Premier League ahead of the new season getting underway on Friday night and before it does we have enough of a chance to delve deep into the market for the top scorer.
Erling Haaland blew this market apart last season and he will be looking to make it successive Golden Boot awards over the course of his second term in the league. Plenty of world class stars will be out to deny him that honour.
Recent Winners
2022-23 – Erling Haaland
2021-22 – Mo Salah & Son Heung-min
2020-21 – Harry Kane
2019-20 – Jamie Vardy
2018-19 – Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Mo Salah & Sadio Mane
2017-18 – Mo Salah
2016-17 – Harry Kane
2015-16 – Harry Kane
2014-15 – Sergio Aguero
2013-14 – Luis Suarez
The Favourites
Given how dominant he was in the competition last season there is a case to be made that Erling Haaland only needs to stay upright to be the top scorer this time around as well. That is certainly a fair proposition but it is also reflected in the price where he is 8/11 to be the top scorer once again. I guess if Manchester City win the league and the Norwegian stays fit then he is going to be very hard to stop, especially when you consider most strikers improve in their second year in the Premier League.
Another reason why Haaland is as short as 8/11 to win the Golden Boot is because his nearest challenger in the betting, Harry Kane, isn’t guaranteed to be in the league come the end of the transfer window. That would be a real issue for anyone who wants to invest in the England striker at 15/2. If he does stay in the league, whether that is at Spurs or even someone like Chelsea who might be back in the market for an attacker, he is probably the next likeliest to top score but it is hard to invest until the window closes.
Mohamed Salah is the only player shorter than 18/1 in the betting. The Liverpool forward had a quiet campaign in the main for a man of his talents last season but that should act as motivation for him to return to the top of his form. The issue I would have with Salah is there are a lot of players who can score goals in this Liverpool side right now so goals could be shared about. The other thing to factor into the consideration is he will be away at the Africa Cup of Nations in January and when you are looking to keep pace with someone like Haaland you never every game you can get.
Darwin Nunez is expected to come good for Liverpool this season and he is 18/1 to win the Golden Boot. The same thing stands with him as it does Salah in that Liverpool could share the goals around a lot more this season. With Salah, Nunez, Diogo Jota, Cody Gakpo and Luis Diaz all around, if they all stay fit there might be a lot of rotation in the forward areas for the Reds this term which would also hamper the chances of Nunez. He isn’t really for me in this market.
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If you look at the list of top scorers above, we don’t always need to be on someone who is going to play for a champion side which offers up a lot more options from a betting point of view. That said it stands to reason that the teams higher up the table are going to score more goals so in theory players for those clubs are going to be more likely to top score.
I think the thing to concentrate on is the need to be the main man. If we can be on a penalty taker as well then that is all the sweeter as he’ll get a few cheap goals in that manner. When you narrow it down using those trends the market is a little easier to manage.
Betting
I’ll go with a couple of bets to be the top scorer this season. Admittedly we are probably relying on an injury to Erling Haaland but these things do happen and if they do then I think Ollie Watkins is a good price at 35/1 to take advantage of that. He performed really well after Unai Emery came into the side and with Villa likely to be a bit more of an attacking force under the clever Spaniard this season the former Brentford striker should be in for quite a campaign. Watkins goes into the season full of motivation anyway with the Euros at the end of it and I’m sure he’ll want to be on the plane to Germany. The Villa man looks overpriced, especially when you consider that only six men bettered him last season and one of those won’t kick a ball until January and another might be heading for pastures new.
That player is Harry Kane and if he does depart Tottenham then it would leave a gaping hole which would need to be filled by someone and that someone might just be Richarlison. Clearly there is risk in investing in the Brazilian because if Kane does stay then his immediate game time might be limited but were Kane to depart in January then the 100/1 you can get on the former Everton man would suddenly become a huge price, especially in an Ange Postecoglou side. It is hard to bet ante-post on the Premier League with over three weeks of the window remaining but sometimes possible scenarios play out to your advantage and I’ll pay to see if this is one of them.
Tips
Back O.Watkins Top Goalscorer (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 36.00 with Spreadex (1/4 1-4)
Back Richarlison Top Goalscorer (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Bet365 (1/4 1-4)
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