The final match of the triple header of NFL 2023 action on Christmas Day is very much the best being saved for last as the number one seeds in their respective Conferences meet when the San Francisco 49ers host the Baltimore Ravens.
There is a very good chance that this is a rehearsal for the Super Bowl in a little under two months and so both teams will be eager to win to put a marker down to the other without the implications of the standings and things like that.
San Francisco 49ers
The San Francisco 49ers had a bit of a mid-season wobble where they lost three matches on the spin but either side of that they have looked every bit the Super Bowl challengers that many expected them to be this term. Their wobble saw them slip to 5-3 and at the time they were in a battle with the Seattle Seahawks for the NFC West title. They have seen that challenge off and now their eyes will be on winning out and securing the number one seed and all the rewards which come with it.
The 49ers head into this match off the back of six wins on the spin and unlike some winning runs which you see which are clearly padded, San Francisco have twice seen off the Seahawks and beaten the Jacksonville Jaguars, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Philadelphia Eagles so this is a legit run they are on. Their offense is impressing every week under Brock Purdy and this defence is playing to the lofty reputation that it comes with.
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Baltimore Ravens
You could make an argument that the Baltimore Ravens are actually having a better season than their opponents in this match because they are in a division where every team in it have a winning record. To be 11-3 in a division of that strength is to their credit. They could easily be 14-0 because their three defeats have been in overtime, by two points and by seven points. Had they gone the other way we would be talking about one of the best seasons in history.
The Ravens go into this match off the back of four straight wins and in the main their defence has been watertight. You would imagine they will need to be bang on it here defensively because they are up against a top offense. The other thing the Ravens will need to do is try to find ways to punch holes in the San Francisco 49ers defence and that is often easier said than done, but any team that has Lamar Jackson making plays will always be dangerous. Baltimore carry good momentum into this match though which is how they need to be.
Betting
I think we are in for a cracking game to round off Christmas Day here. This could very well be the Super Bowl in six weeks or so time and I would favour the San Francisco 49ers with home advantage but I’m not convinced they win by much and I certainly respect the Baltimore Ravens record enough to not want to take them on and I can’t really make up my mind whether I think this will be low or moderate in terms of scoring so I’m off to a player prop to round off the betting for the day.
That comes in the form of Lamar Jackson who I think can cover his rushing yards prop. The line is at 55.5 which looks a little high for a quarterback but Jackson is going to need to use his legs plenty of times to fend off this San Francisco pass rush. With the 49ers secondary as good as it is there probably isn’t going to be a lot of joy through the air for the Ravens. To add to their troubles they will be without Keaton Mitchell here so I expect Jackson to set off on a number of carries and this line feels within reach if we assume he goes into double figures for carries which I would expect him to do.
Tips
Back L.Jackson – Over 55.5 rushing yards for a 3/10 stake at 1.83 with Betfair
